Ground Invasion of Iran Could Be "Suicide Mission" for U.S.: Ex-Army Intelligence Analyst

Harrison Man, a former US Army major and DIA analyst, asserts that any US attempt to seize Kharg Island, which handles 90% of Iran's oil exports, would be a "suicide mission." The island is only 15 miles off the Iranian coast, placing US troops within range of Iranian drones, missiles, artillery, rockets, and short-range drones. Naval approaches would require navigating the dangerous Strait of Hormuz, which the US Navy already deems too risky, and air resupply would also be fraught with ambush potential. This scenario risks trapping US troops, leading to mass casualties or a de facto hostage situation, which would be more valuable to Iran than the oil terminal itself.

Man states, "any attempt to seize this island would be close to a suicide mission... US troops within range not just of the drones and missiles... but also shorter range weapons... artillery, rockets, short-range drones... they could really end up being trapped there."

Man details the severe logistical challenges of sustaining any US ground force on Iranian soil, including Kharg Island or near the Strait of Hormuz. Resupply or evacuation by sea is extremely dangerous due to Iranian mines, drone boats, and other weapons. Aerial resupply, while possible, is also vulnerable to ambush, as demonstrated by Houthi campaigns. This creates a high risk of US troops being trapped under fire and running out of supplies, making any sustained presence extremely difficult.

Man explains, "resupply or even insertion or evacuation by sea is extremely dangerous... Iran... can mine these waters... They have drone boats... even aerial resupply or insertion would be quite fraught and it's it's a real risk that you have US troops trapped under fire and running out of supplies on this island."

Despite reports of 2,500 Marines or 5,000 troops being sent to the Middle East, Man clarifies that the actual number of ground troops aboard these amphibious assault ships is only about 1,200. He notes this is a "relatively small number" for invading a country, even for seizing a small island, underscoring the inadequacy of current deployments for a significant ground operation.

Man states, "There's 5,000 sailors and Marines aboard these ships altogether. There's only about 1,200 actual ground troops, which is a relatively small number if you're talking about invading a country, even if it's just seizing a small island."

Numerous US allies, including Germany, Italy, Spain, and Australia, have rejected President Trump's request to send warships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has largely shut down. Germany's defense minister explicitly stated, "This is not our war." Man notes this widespread refusal represents a significant "fissure" in the NATO alliance and the US-Europe relationship, highlighting the lack of international consensus or willingness to support US military action in the region.

The host lists countries rejecting the request (Germany, Italy, Estonia, Spain, Australia), and Man comments, "it takes a lot for European leaders not to follow the US into a Middle East intervention... this is the the latest fissure Trump is creating in the in the NATO alliance."

Man describes the US approach to the conflict with Iran as "totally strategically bankrupt," lacking a coherent plan beyond the initial 24 hours. He characterizes it as "throwing spaghetti at the wall," citing abandoned policies like fomenting a Kurdish uprising. Man suggests that while Trump may have been surprised by the consequences (Strait of Hormuz closure, oil price spikes), figures like Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio, and Benjamin Netanyahu likely anticipated and desired these outcomes, with Netanyahu specifically aiming to drag the US into a "decisive war of annihilation against Iran."

Man states, "on the American side, it's just totally strategically bankrupt again. no no plan after the first 24 hours... We've seen them really just throwing spaghetti at the wall... Benjamin Netanyahu, who is very much getting what he wanted, which is dragging the US into what he hopes will be a decisive war of annihilation against Iran."