For the First Time Since WWII, Moscow Is Under Attack (w/ Marc Bennetts) | Shield of the Republic
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Trump's foreign policy approach involves repeated grand threats followed by diplomatic pauses, which may be perceived as weakness by adversaries like Iran.
- ❖The US diplomatic corps is significantly depleted, with 109 out of 190+ posts vacant, severely impacting the nation's ability to navigate complex international issues.
- ❖Russia's relationship with China increasingly positions Russia as a vassal state, with China dictating terms in key negotiations like the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline.
- ❖Russian society is marked by deep apathy, with citizens feeling disempowered and believing all decisions are made in Moscow, even regarding local environmental hazards.
- ❖Modern Russian propaganda is more sophisticated and hypnotic than Soviet-era agitprop, employing multiple, often contradictory, narratives to appeal to emotions and foster a sense of national might.
- ❖The war in Ukraine is slowly 'coming home' to ordinary Russians through drone attacks on Moscow and growing weariness, but a lack of internal outlets for dissent makes regime change unlikely.
- ❖Putin's obsession with Ukraine and restoring the Russian empire overrides concerns for Russian casualties or economic impact, suggesting a prolonged conflict.
Insights
1Trump's Unpredictable Foreign Policy and Diplomatic Weakness
The Trump administration's foreign policy is characterized by making significant threats, particularly on social media, only to back off and pursue diplomacy. This pattern, observed six times since the war began, is seen as conveying a reluctance for kinetic military action, potentially hardening the positions of adversaries like Iran. This is compounded by a severely hollowed-out US diplomatic corps, with 109 out of 190+ diplomatic posts vacant, leaving neophytes to handle complex technical subjects like the Iranian nuclear file.
The hosts discuss Trump calling off an attack he hadn't approved and returning to negotiations with Iran (). Eliot Cohen notes Trump's seriousness on the nuclear front but reluctance for large-scale military operations (). Eric Edelman highlights the hollowing out of American diplomacy, citing a Reuters article about 109 vacant US diplomatic posts ().
2Russia's Vassal Relationship with China
Putin's visit to Beijing reinforced the perception of Russia as a junior partner or vassal state to China. Despite talk of a 'partnership without boundaries,' China is driving a hard bargain on critical issues like gas prices and volume for the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. China's hierarchical view of the world means it does not disguise its contempt or disdain for lesser powers, a dynamic that is likely to become more overt and could cause resentment among the Russian elite.
Discussion of Putin's visit to Beijing and the 'partnership without boundaries' (). Hosts note China driving a hard bargain on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, knowing Putin is in a weak position (). Eliot Cohen states China views Russia as cultural inferiors and vassals, not disguising contempt ().
3Apathy and Propaganda's Grip on Russian Society
Marc Bennetts describes a pervasive sense of apathy in Russia, where citizens believe 'nothing depends on us' and 'everything is decided in Moscow.' This sentiment is reinforced by sophisticated state propaganda that is more effective and 'hypnotic' than Soviet-era agitprop. It uses multiple, often contradictory, messages to appeal to a desire for national might and to demonize the West, leading to a warped perception of reality even among younger generations who never experienced the Soviet Union.
Bennetts recounts a village woman's apathy about uranium-poisoned water, saying 'It's all decided there in Moscow' (). He describes a taxi driver's acceptance of Putin's motorcade stopping traffic: 'But he is one and we are many. Of course, we have to wait' (). Bennetts details how state television ramped up propaganda after Crimea, spreading ridiculous lies and nuclear threats (). He explains modern Russian propaganda's difference from Soviet propaganda: it's not a single message, often contradicts itself, is less dry, and more 'hypnotic' and 'appealing' ().
4Putin's Obsession and Russia's Bleak Future
Putin's rule was initially built on oil wealth and restoring stability after the 1990s, playing on a suppressed desire for revenge and a nostalgia for past power. His 'sadism' and 'complexes' have 'poisoned the Russian mind.' His obsession with Ukraine, viewed as part of Russia since the 1990s, drives the war, regardless of Russian casualties or economic impact. The war is 'coming home' to Russians through drone attacks and weariness, but the swift implementation of severe laws against 'fake news' has driven away potential protest leaders, leaving no clear mechanism for internal change or an end to the conflict in the near future.
Bennetts states Putin reshaped Russia in his own image, and his psychological problems, complexes, and sadism have 'poisoned the Russian mind' (). He notes Putin's rise was rooted in oil prices and giving the country stability after 1990s turmoil (). Bennetts describes Putin's obsession with Ukraine, viewing it as part of Russia since the 1990s, and his disregard for Russian lives or the economy (). He mentions recent serious drone attacks on Moscow () and the laws making it illegal to report 'fake news' about the war, leading to hundreds of thousands fleeing the country ().
Lessons
- Recognize the potential for US foreign policy to be perceived as inconsistent or weak when threats are not consistently followed by action, impacting adversary calculations.
- Advocate for strengthening US diplomatic capabilities and filling vacant ambassadorial posts to ensure expert guidance in complex geopolitical regions.
- Develop a deeper understanding of the psychological warfare tactics employed by authoritarian regimes, particularly the multi-faceted and emotionally appealing nature of modern propaganda, to better counter disinformation.
- Prepare for a prolonged conflict in Ukraine, as Putin's deeply entrenched obsession with restoring the Russian empire suggests he will not easily yield, regardless of internal costs.
Quotes
"I've given up any attempt to predict what Donald Trump will do."
"The war goes on. A blockade is an act of war. And they're blockading the strait, and we are blockading them. So, people aren't getting killed, by and large, uh although they probably are in Iranian prisons, but but the war is still on."
"The longer this goes, every day that goes by, it's harder for him because public opinion is getting worse. His standing with the Congress, as you pointed out, is getting worse."
"Putin has reshaped Russia entirely in his own image now and and um and Putin's psychological problems, Putin's complexes, Putin's um sadism, I think, has poisoned uh the Russian mind."
"But but he is one and we are many. Of course, we have to wait."
"Russia is the only country in the world that can reduce the United States to radioactive ash."
"I don't think he cares how many Russians die. I don't think he cares how many people come home with no limbs, how many families are destroyed, how many people are impoverished."
Q&A
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