Andrei Martyanov: Iran Just SHOT DOWN a New Jet and Drops Hammer After Israel’s Nuclear Attack
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Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Iran's air defense systems, including older MANPADS, can effectively damage and down modern fighter jets like the F-18, making close air support operations in or near Iran highly risky for the US.
- ❖The 'end of the petrodollar period' is a current reality, with countries like Spain, India, China, and Russia increasingly trading oil in national currencies (yuan, rubles, rupees) rather than dollars.
- ❖The US military's cultural and doctrinal DNA as an expeditionary force is ill-suited for large-scale combined arms operations against a capable, industrialized enemy like Iran.
- ❖US military technology and fighting doctrines are largely obsolete, stuck in the late 1980s/early 1990s, and lack viable air defense systems against modern threats like drones and advanced missiles.
- ❖Israel's military is on the 'verge of collapsing from within,' with its chief of staff warning the cabinet about unsustainable operations.
- ❖The US lacks the force (estimated 1.5-2 million troops) and the industrial capacity to sustain a prolonged, large-scale invasion of Iran, which would result in 'horrendous' casualties.
- ❖US generals are criticized for lacking operational understanding and strategic depth, often prioritizing political advancement over combat leadership.
- ❖Arab states, particularly UAE, face severe consequences from Iran if they cooperate with US military actions, with Iran capable of wiping out their infrastructure.
- ❖The 'Arab street' views Iran with admiration for its resistance against Israel and the US, shifting regional dynamics beyond traditional Sunni-Shiite divisions.
Insights
1Iran's Air Defense Capabilities Challenge US Air Superiority
Iran's air defense systems, including older MANPADS (Man-Portable Air-Defense Systems), are capable of kinetically damaging and downing modern fighter jets like the F-18. These systems use infrared homing devices and shrapnel warheads to target aircraft exhausts, creating critical damage that F-18s cannot withstand. This capability makes US close air support operations in or near Iran extremely hazardous.
An F-18 jet was reportedly shot down by an Iranian air defense system, crashing into the ocean. Martyanov explains the mechanism of MANPADS, noting their effectiveness against aircraft not designed for heavy punishment, contrasting them with more survivable jets like the A-10 Warthog or Russian SU-25.
2The End of the Petrodollar Era
The petrodollar system, which has underpinned US economic hegemony, is definitively over. Countries are increasingly bypassing the US dollar for oil transactions, opting for national currencies like the yuan, ruble, and rupee. This shift is happening across major economies, including China, Russia, India, and even European nations like Spain, fundamentally altering global financial dynamics.
Martyanov states, 'the most terrifying thing for Washington did happen is the end of the petro dollar period it's over.' He cites Spain being allowed to trade through 'harm trade,' India buying Russian energy in rupees, and the Philippines seeking Russian energy, potentially paying in rubles or yuan.
3US Military Doctrine and Equipment Are Obsolete for Real War
The US military's doctrine, rooted in expeditionary force concepts and influenced by WWII-era German generals, is ill-equipped for large-scale, combined arms operations against a capable, industrialized enemy. Its table of organization and equipment (TOE) is stuck in the late 1980s/early 1990s, lacking effective air defense and the industrial capacity to sustain modern warfare.
Martyanov asserts, 'United States doesn't know what real real war is.' He critiques doctrines like 'air land battle' and 'from the sea concepts' as suitable only for 'third world car crab holes.' He highlights the US's lack of viable air defense (NASAMS, Patriot failures) and inability to produce sufficient missiles (e.g., 90 missiles a year).
4Israel's Military is Collapsing, US is a Mercenary Force
The Israeli army (IDF) is reportedly on the verge of internal collapse, unable to sustain its operations. This situation forces the US into a role as a mercenary force, fighting on behalf of Israeli interests against Iran, further straining US resources and military morale.
The host mentions Channel 13 in Hebrew reporting that the Israeli chief of staff warned the cabinet about the army 'collapsing from within' (). Martyanov adds that the US 'doesn't have foreign sovereignty in the foreign policy and it's controlled by uh from Tel Aviv' ().
Bottom Line
The 'Arab street' is increasingly admiring Iran's resistance against Israel and the US, transcending traditional Sunni-Shiite divisions and creating new regional dynamics.
This shift in popular sentiment could destabilize US-allied Arab regimes, making them more vulnerable to internal pressures and potentially aligning them closer to Iran or the broader Eurasian bloc.
Nations seeking to challenge Western hegemony can leverage this shift by supporting regional actors that demonstrate effective resistance, fostering new alliances and weakening existing power structures.
The US Army's reported shift to 'remotely working' ground forces, as per a New York Times article, indicates a profound disconnect from the realities of modern warfare and a potential cover-up for military incapacitation.
This suggests a critical vulnerability in US ground combat readiness and a reliance on unrealistic operational concepts, making any large-scale conventional engagement against a capable adversary highly risky and potentially catastrophic.
Adversaries can exploit this perceived weakness by preparing for direct, conventional ground engagements, knowing that US forces may be doctrinally and logistically unprepared for such a conflict.
Key Concepts
Petrodollar Demise
The concept that the global dominance of the US dollar, underpinned by its use in international oil transactions, is ending. As more countries trade oil in non-dollar currencies, the dollar's reserve status and US economic leverage diminish, leading to a significant shift in global financial power.
Paper Tiger Military
A military force that appears powerful on the surface but lacks the fundamental capabilities, doctrine, and industrial base to fight and win a real, large-scale war against a capable adversary. This model suggests that US military strength has been grossly overestimated due to propaganda and a lack of experience against peer or near-peer opponents.
Lessons
- Re-evaluate investment strategies in energy markets, considering the accelerating shift away from the petrodollar and the increasing control of key chokepoints (e.g., Strait of Hormuz) by non-Western powers.
- Assess geopolitical risk in the Middle East with a focus on Iran's growing military and economic influence, recognizing the potential for direct confrontation between Iran and US-allied Arab states.
- Analyze the long-term implications of declining US military capabilities and the rise of Eurasian military-economic blocs on global supply chains, defense contracts, and international security alliances.
Notable Moments
Report of an F-18 jet shot down by Iranian air defense systems, highlighting Iran's military capabilities.
This event serves as concrete evidence, according to the host, of Iran's ability to counter advanced Western air power, challenging the long-held assumption of US air superiority in the region.
Donald Trump's statement about protecting Gulf countries 'remotely' even if the US doesn't stay, using 'airplanes that go 2,000 miles an hour'.
Martyanov frames this as 'ridiculous' and a sign of Trump's 'alternative universe' thinking, underscoring the perceived disconnect between US political leadership and military reality, especially concerning the ability to project power without a sustained presence.
The Israeli Chief of Staff warning the cabinet that the Israeli army is on the 'verge of collapsing from within'.
Quotes
"Anybody who thinks that United States can operate close air support in uh uh in Iran or near Iran. Well, man pads are there and they will be taking down or pretty much most of the aircraft which will try to do this."
"The most terrifying thing for Washington did happen is the end of the petro dollar period it's over."
"United States doesn't know what real real war is. I'm not talking about even uh American public which is absolutely oblivious to the fact what real war is."
"United States doesn't have foreign sovereignty in the foreign policy and it's controlled by uh from Tel Aviv."
"My grandfather riding was riding camel. Uh greatgrandfather my grandfather was riding camel. My dad was riding Rolls-Royce. I'm also riding in Rolls-Royce. My son will ride in Rolls-Royce. But my grandchildren will be riding camels again."
Q&A
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