Larry Johnson: BREAKING: Iran Fires Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles at US Warship USS Canberra
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Iran has successfully blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, making it impossible for the US to 'open' it without significant military engagement and losses.
- ❖The USS Canberra incident, where Iran fired warning missiles, indicates Iran's advanced planning and offensive capabilities in the region.
- ❖Iran possesses a multi-layered defense system, including mines, drones, submarines, fast boats, and various missiles, making any US attempt to clear the strait extremely hazardous.
- ❖Donald Trump's 'Project Freedom' and new rules of engagement are deemed impractical and likely to result in US forces becoming 'big fat targets'.
- ❖China has openly defied US sanctions on Iranian oil, supporting its refineries working with Iran and banning shipments through the US-managed Panama Canal.
- ❖The US blockade of Iranian oil is largely symbolic and ineffective, as Iran continues to export oil, and the US lacks the naval capacity for a true blockade.
- ❖Larry Johnson predicts a renewed kinetic conflict, likely involving US air strikes against Iran, which will lead to severe retaliation against Israel and US bases in the UAE.
- ❖The UAE's decision to align with the US and Israel, and its withdrawal from OPEC and OAPEC, is seen as a self-destructive move that will weaken it economically and militarily.
- ❖Iran's confidence has grown due to US pressure and sanctions, leading to a hardened negotiating position, including taking nuclear enrichment off the table until a peace deal is in place.
- ❖The current geopolitical situation is likened to the 'eye of a hurricane,' a temporary calm before a worse escalation, potentially leading to a global economic collapse.
Insights
1Iran's Effective Strait of Hormuz Blockade and Multi-Layered Defense
Iran has successfully shut down the Strait of Hormuz, making it militarily unfeasible for the United States to 'open' it without incurring massive losses. Iran's defense capabilities include mines, underwater and maritime drones, submarines with torpedoes, fast boats with missiles, aerial drones, coastal defense cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles capable of penetrating 150 miles into Iran. This multi-layered system means any US attempt to ensure safe passage would require extensive and dangerous operations.
Larry Johnson details Iran's defensive capabilities and states, 'to fully open what do we mean when we say open the straight of Hormuz that a ship can transit that straight without fear of getting blown up or hit by a missile. Okay. So, you have to eliminate the ability of Iran to put any mines out there, to have any underwater drones, to have any uh many submarines with torpedoes, to have any maritime drones that are on top of the water, to have any fast boats with a crew which can launch uh missiles against the ship. uh to have aerial drones, to have coastal defense cruise missiles, and to have uh ballistic missiles, both short-range intermediate range ballistic missiles.'
2US Blockade is Symbolic and Ineffective
The US naval blockade against Iranian ships is largely a 'myth' and symbolic, lacking the necessary resources and strategic depth to be effective. The US Navy does not have enough ships to interdict the hundreds of vessels transiting the Persian Gulf, and deploying destroyers for blockade duties compromises carrier strike group air defense. Iranian tankers continue to pass through the strait, demonstrating the blockade's practical failure.
Larry Johnson states, 'the whole thing about the blockade has been a bit of a myth because the um if if if you're going to stop a vessel, board it, basically seize it, then the the standard operating procedure for the US Navy is to put a prize crew on there... How many ships have come come out of the Persian Gulf since April 15th? At least 150 from Iran. Okay, do the math. Does Does the United States have 150 ships deployed in the Persian Gulf? ... No, they don't. They've only got a fraction of that. So there there there's no way they can do an actual blockade.'
3US Economic Pressure Strengthens Iran's Position
Contrary to US expectations, economic pressure and sanctions have not made Iran more conciliatory but have instead increased its confidence and hardened its negotiating stance. Iran has updated its proposals with preconditions, taking nuclear enrichment off the table until a peace deal is in place. This newfound confidence allows Iran to solidify its position as a regional power, making bilateral deals with other Gulf states and dictating terms.
Larry Johnson explains, 'the entire premise of the economic blockade and to put this kind of pressure on Iran is that under that kind of pressure Iran's going to go, 'Oh, this is too painful. We can't continue doing this. We got to change course and become more consiliatory.' They're not becoming more consiliatory. I think they're becoming more confident. ... they've taken a much harder line and uh uh they're showing no inclination to make any kind of concession, which candidly I don't blame them. You know, I think I think they're in a strong position right now to outlast the United States.'
4UAE's Alignment with US/Israel: A 'Political and National Suicide'
The United Arab Emirates' decision to align itself with Israel and the United States, and its withdrawal from OPEC and OAPEC, is viewed as a self-destructive political and national move. When the conflict with Iran escalates, the UAE's Aldafra air base is predicted to be destroyed, and Dubai will suffer significant physical damage. This will weaken the UAE to a point where it may cease to exist as a country, losing income and relying on US loans.
Larry Johnson states, 'I view the UAE as having committed a form of political and national suicide by by taking adopting this stance... the Emiratis have a problem... the current current leaders have decided to align themselves with Israel and the United States. I boy, that's a bad bet. when this when when this thing goes kinetic again... the Aldafra air base I think will be destroyed... I think there will be more physical damage inflicted upon Dubai... it's going to weaken the United Arab Emirates to a point that it may actually cease to exist as a country.'
Bottom Line
The US military's focus on 'opening' the Strait of Hormuz is a miscalculation, as Iran's multi-layered defense makes it a 'big fat target' for Iranian missiles, drones, and naval assets.
This implies that current US military strategy is either underestimating Iranian capabilities or is not prepared for the full scale of conflict required to achieve its stated goals, leading to potentially catastrophic losses for US forces.
For defense analysts, this highlights a critical vulnerability in US force projection and suggests a need for re-evaluation of naval doctrine in contested chokepoints. For investors, it reinforces the risk premium on oil and shipping through the Persian Gulf.
The 'paper market' for oil, which suggests falling prices, is a manipulation, and real-world gasoline prices are rapidly increasing, indicating a disconnect that will lead to economic pain.
This suggests that official economic indicators and expert predictions (like Scott Bessant's) are detached from the ground reality, potentially misleading policymakers and the public about the true state of the energy market and impending inflation.
This insight could inform investment strategies focused on real assets and commodities, hedging against inflation, and shorting financial instruments tied to manipulated 'paper market' prices. It also suggests opportunities in alternative energy or localized supply chains less reliant on global oil flows.
Key Concepts
Eye of a Hurricane
Describes the current geopolitical calm as a temporary respite before a more severe and destructive phase of conflict, implying that the worst is yet to come.
Elephant Tied to a Rope
Illustrates how nations like Russia and Iran, initially believing they were dependent on the US-controlled economic system, discovered their own strength and alternatives once sanctions were imposed, leading to increased confidence and freedom of action.
Notable Moments
Discussion of Iran firing anti-ship ballistic missiles at the USS Canberra as a warning in the Persian Gulf, following Donald Trump's 'Project Freedom' announcement.
This event directly demonstrates Iran's willingness and capability to challenge US naval presence and enforce its control over the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions and proving the ineffectiveness of US 'escort' plans.
Larry Johnson's detailed breakdown of Iran's multi-layered defense system in the Strait of Hormuz, including mines, various drones, submarines, and missiles.
This provides concrete evidence and a strategic rationale for why the US cannot easily 'open' the strait, highlighting the significant military challenge and potential for heavy US casualties.
Critique of Scott Bessant's oil price predictions and the 'paper market' manipulation versus real-world gasoline price increases.
This moment exposes a perceived disconnect between financial market narratives and economic realities, suggesting that ordinary consumers are already experiencing severe inflationary pressures that are being downplayed or misreported.
Larry Johnson's assertion that the UAE's alignment with the US and Israel is 'political and national suicide' and could lead to its demise as a country.
This is a stark and provocative prediction about the geopolitical consequences for a key US ally in the region, suggesting that current alliances could lead to severe national collapse rather than protection.
Quotes
"Iran's got it shut down and the United States is trying to figure out if he can get it open, which he can't."
"What's the Navy going to do other than provide a big fat target for the Iranians to hit?"
"China's made it very clear until the United States, screw off. You know, you're not going to tell us what to do. We're not paying attention to you."
"The whole thing about the blockade has been a bit of a myth."
"We're in a it's like the eye of a hurricane. Okay. The hurricane, the winds, the blow, the high winds, the heavy rain, but the eye passes over. You got a momentary peace, but it's not going to last because you got the backside of that hurricane coming, which is worse."
"I view the UAE as having committed a form of political and national suicide by by taking adopting this stance."
"When he says something take the exact opposite position because whatever he says is wrong."
"They're not becoming more consiliatory. I think they're becoming more confident. You know, screw the Americans."
"This now Iran has awakened that other countries have to take us seriously. They have to listen to us and our demands are going to be met."
Q&A
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