New Nancy Guthrie note claims to have video — famed FBI profiler on what’s real and what’s not
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Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖A new note sent to TMZ claims to have video of Nancy Guthrie with her kidnapper and demands one Bitcoin for information.
- ❖FBI profiler James Fitzgerald believes the TMZ note is not legitimate and is likely from an opportunist seeking money.
- ❖Fitzgerald also expresses skepticism about the first two ransom notes, which the FBI reportedly considers real, due to their lack of proof of life and specific demands.
- ❖He suggests the abduction was a personal act, possibly a stalking of Savannah Guthrie, rather than a for-profit kidnapping.
- ❖Fitzgerald posits that Nancy Guthrie likely died early in the abduction, rendering any ransom demands moot.
- ❖The phrase 'buried with nature' is deemed meaningless by Fitzgerald, as it applies to any form of burial or disposition.
- ❖Fitzgerald advocates for the public release of the actual language of the notes (with one unique detail withheld) to potentially identify the author through linguistic analysis.
Insights
1Skepticism Towards All Ransom Notes, Including FBI-Deemed 'Real' Ones
FBI profiler James Fitzgerald expresses strong doubt regarding the authenticity of all communications related to the Nancy Guthrie case. He views the latest TMZ note, which claims video evidence and demands Bitcoin, as a clear attempt by an opportunist. Crucially, he extends this skepticism to the first two ransom notes that the FBI reportedly takes seriously, citing their lack of 'proof of life' and specific, actionable demands as major red flags inconsistent with genuine for-profit kidnappings.
Fitzgerald states, 'I don't think any of them are authentic and that includes this most recent one.' He questions why genuine kidnappers would go to TMZ and not provide proof of life. He also notes that for-profit kidnappings are rare in the US and typically involve clear proof of life, which was absent in the initial notes.
2Abduction Motive: Stalking of Savannah Guthrie, Not Ransom
Fitzgerald's long-standing theory is that Nancy Guthrie's abduction was not about money but was a personal act of stalking targeting her daughter, Savannah Guthrie. He believes the abductor couldn't directly access Savannah and instead targeted her mother as a proxy. This motive explains the lack of effective ransom demands and the unusual communication channels.
Fitzgerald states, 'I believe this whole this whole abduction was not about money. It was about a stalking of of Savannah. He couldn't get to her and what's the next thing he could do but steal her mother from her.' He also notes that the abductor likely planned this well in advance, making it a 'successful abduction' even if it was a 'failed kidnapping' in terms of ransom.
3Nancy Guthrie Likely Died Early in Abduction
Based on the communications and lack of proof of life, Fitzgerald believes Nancy Guthrie likely died early in the abduction. He suggests that subsequent notes, including the one claiming she 'died and was with nature,' are either from opportunists or an abductor attempting to alleviate guilt without possessing actual information about the body's location.
Fitzgerald says, 'She probably did die early on. I was holding out hope for a while but so now everything else coming out it's just it's just opportunists.' He also analyzes the phrase 'buried with nature,' calling it a 'meaningless statement' that doesn't provide specific information.
Bottom Line
The FBI should consider publicizing the exact language of the ransom notes (with one unique detail withheld) to leverage public recognition for identifying the author, similar to how the Unabomber was identified.
This unconventional approach could provide new leads by tapping into a broader pool of individuals who might recognize the writing style, grammar, or specific phrasing, potentially breaking the case open if traditional investigative methods have stalled.
Law enforcement could issue a carefully redacted version of the notes to the public, explicitly asking for linguistic insights or recognition of the writing style, while retaining a 'control' detail to filter out false claims.
Key Concepts
Forensic Linguistic Analysis
The systematic study of language in legal contexts, used by profilers like James Fitzgerald to analyze ransom notes and other communications for patterns in grammar, spelling, phrasing, and content to infer characteristics of the author, their motives, and the authenticity of their claims. This model emphasizes looking beyond superficial content to the underlying linguistic structure and context.
Proof of Life/Death Principle
In kidnapping cases, genuine abductors typically provide undeniable 'proof of life' (or 'proof of death' if the victim has died) to validate their claims and incentivize payment. The absence of such proof, or the provision of vague, unverifiable claims, is a strong indicator that the communication may be fraudulent or from an opportunist rather than the actual perpetrator.
Lessons
- Investigators should prioritize following up on all leads, but allocate minimal valuable time to communications lacking 'proof of life' or specific, verifiable details, as they are likely from opportunists.
- Families of abduction victims should be wary of any ransom demands that do not include undeniable 'proof of life' (or death), as paying without such proof is likely to result in financial loss without the victim's return.
- Law enforcement agencies dealing with anonymous communications in high-profile cases should consider consulting forensic linguists to analyze the precise language, spelling, and syntax for clues about the author's background and authenticity.
Quotes
"This guy, I don't think he's legit. I'm going to say that upfront. I'm not sure any communication... I don't think any of them are authentic and that includes this most recent one."
"I believe this whole this whole abduction was not about money. It was about a a a stalking of of Savannah. He couldn't get to her and what's the next thing he could do but uh uh steal her mother from her."
"I don't believe the investigators should feel bad about that. They had to play the cards uh uh that were dealt to them. And I think not paying the ransom was the right thing to do because that would have been money lost and there would have been no living Nancy or dead Nancy ever turned over to them."
"When you think about it, Brian, you and and your audience, we're all buried with nature eventually... So, you're not really saying anything there. It's a meaningless statement in that regard."
"I would love to see the actual language in these communications. And I'm hoping the task force brought some forensic linguist on board, not just with a degree, but with experience experience in working these types of cases."
Q&A
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