Iranian American Scholar Narges Bajoghli on the History of U.S.-Iran Relations
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The US-Israel conflict with Iran has seen US missile strikes on civilian targets, including a girls' school, with a preliminary Pentagon report linking the incident to outdated data and potential AI involvement (Palantir's Maven using Anthropic's Claude).
- ❖Trump's 'maximum pressure' policy included significant funding for media warfare and psychological operations, specifically promoting pro-monarchy narratives via outlets like Iran International, which has polarized Iranian society.
- ❖Historical US intervention, notably the 1953 CIA-backed coup that installed the autocratic Shah and his brutal SAVAK secret police, directly contributed to the 1979 revolution and current anti-US sentiment.
- ❖Internal Iranian political discourse is now heavily fragmented, offering limited options (pro-regime or pro-Pahlavi invasion) and actively silencing dissenting voices.
- ❖US intelligence assesses that the Islamic Republic is resilient and 'not even close to buckling' under current pressure, with the conflict actually increasing Iranian nationalism.
- ❖Iran, isolated from the global economy by sanctions, employs asymmetrical warfare, targeting Gulf infrastructure and global oil markets to pressure the US and prevent a return to the pre-war status quo.
Insights
1US Missile Strike on Iranian Girls' School Linked to AI Targeting
A US missile strike on an Iranian girls' school killed 168 children and 14 teachers. A preliminary Pentagon report attributed the strike to 'outdated data' and is investigating a potential connection to the military's use of artificial intelligence, specifically Palantir's Maven system, which utilizes Anthropic's Claude AI tool for real-time targeting.
Pentagon report confirms US responsibility for missile strike on Iranian girls' school, killing 168 children and 14 teachers. Pentagon investigating connection to military's use of AI, specifically Palantir's Maven system using Anthropic's Claude. (, )
2Trump's 'Maximum Pressure' Policy Fueled Iranian Polarization Through Media Warfare
The Trump administration's 'maximum pressure' policy against Iran involved not only severe economic sanctions but also millions of dollars invested in media warfare and psychological operations. This funding supported pro-monarchy social media and satellite television stations, such as Iran International, which actively pushed a pro-monarchy line, polarizing Iranian society and erasing political diversity.
Trump administration's 'maximum pressure' policy included severe economic sanctions and millions poured into media infrastructures, media warfare, and psychological operations, funding pro-monarchy social media and satellite television stations like Iran International. (, )
3Historical US Intervention (1953 Coup) Shaped Current Anti-US Sentiment
The 1953 CIA and British intelligence coup overthrew Iran's democratically elected leader, Mohammad Mosaddegh, and reinstated the Shah. The Shah's increasingly autocratic rule, close ties to the US and Israel, and the brutal repression by his CIA/Mossad-trained secret police (SAVAK) fueled widespread resentment, culminating in the 1979 revolution's desire for independence and sovereignty from great powers.
1953 CIA/British coup deposed Mohammad Mosaddegh, reinstating the Shah who became autocratic and close to US/Israel. SAVAK, trained by CIA/Mossad, used torture and suppressed dissent, leading to the 1979 revolution's desire for independence. (, , )
4Iran's Asymmetrical Warfare Targets Global Oil Markets to Counter US Pressure
Given its inability to confront the US militarily, Iran employs asymmetrical warfare. Having been pushed out of the global economy by decades of sanctions, Iran's strategy in the current conflict is to target the global economy, specifically oil markets. This aims to pressure the US and its allies to de-escalate the war and prevent a return to a status quo where US and Israeli actions go unchecked.
Iran cannot militarily go head-to-head with the United States. Instead, Iran does asymmetrical warfare, hitting at the global economy that it itself has been isolated against, targeting oil markets to pressure Americans to back away from this war. (, )
5US Pressure Increases Iranian Nationalism, Fails to Destabilize Regime
Despite US military strikes, including targeting leadership, and claims of victory, US intelligence has concluded that the Islamic Republic is 'not even close to buckling' under the pressure. The ongoing conflict, particularly the targeting of civilian populations, is instead being interpreted inside Iran as a war on the Iranian people and nation, thereby increasing a sense of nationalism.
US intelligence has concluded that the Islamic Republic is not even close to buckling under this kind of pressure. This is being read inside Iran as a war on the nation and on the civilian population, increasing the sense of nationalism. (, )
Bottom Line
The deliberate use of foreign-funded media (e.g., Iran International) as a 'Fox News' equivalent to polarize a target nation's diaspora and internal political landscape, effectively narrowing political discourse to extreme, externally-favored options.
This highlights a sophisticated, non-military form of geopolitical influence that can profoundly destabilize a nation from within, creating divisions that serve external agendas rather than fostering genuine democratic movements.
Analysts and policymakers should scrutinize the funding and narrative strategies of media outlets targeting specific nations, especially during periods of geopolitical tension, to understand their role in shaping public opinion and political outcomes.
Military pressure and economic sanctions, when perceived as attacks on the nation and its civilians, can paradoxically strengthen nationalistic sentiment and the resilience of the targeted regime, rather than leading to its collapse.
This challenges conventional assumptions in foreign policy that 'maximum pressure' will inevitably lead to regime change or capitulation, suggesting that such tactics can backfire by unifying a population against an external threat.
Policymakers should re-evaluate the efficacy of 'maximum pressure' strategies, considering the potential for increased nationalism and unintended strengthening of regimes, and explore alternative diplomatic or engagement approaches.
Key Concepts
Asymmetrical Warfare
A military strategy employed by a weaker combatant against a stronger one, leveraging unconventional tactics to exploit vulnerabilities, as seen in Iran's targeting of oil markets and Gulf infrastructure against the US military.
Information Warfare / Media Warfare
The use of media and psychological operations to influence public opinion and political outcomes, exemplified by the Trump administration's funding of pro-monarchy satellite TV and social media to polarize Iranian society.
Blowback
Unintended, negative consequences of a covert operation or foreign policy, illustrated by the 1953 CIA coup in Iran leading to decades of anti-US sentiment, the 1979 revolution, and the current regime's rise.
Lessons
- Recognize how external geopolitical pressures and information warfare can profoundly fragment and polarize a nation's internal political landscape, often by promoting extreme, binary political choices.
- Understand that military actions, even those framed as 'excursions,' can have significant, long-term geopolitical and economic repercussions, including increased nationalism and global market instability, which cannot be easily 'switched off'.
- Consider the deep historical context of foreign intervention (e.g., the 1953 coup) when analyzing current geopolitical conflicts, as past actions often fuel present resentments, shape national identity, and inform strategic responses.
Notable Moments
The Pentagon's preliminary report confirming a US missile strike on an Iranian girls' school, killing 168 children and 14 teachers, and investigating the role of AI (Palantir's Maven using Anthropic's Claude) in the targeting error.
This moment exposes the devastating human cost of modern warfare, the potential for catastrophic errors with AI-driven targeting, and the immediate impact of the US-Iran conflict on civilian lives.
President Trump's contradictory statements, first denying knowledge of the school strike, then calling the broader US-Israel attacks on Iran a 'little excursion' while simultaneously claiming victory and having 'won' the war.
This highlights a disconnect between the official narrative and the realities on the ground, underscoring the political framing of military actions and potentially downplaying severe consequences.
The guest's explanation that US intelligence concludes the Islamic Republic is 'not even close to buckling' and that the war is increasing Iranian nationalism, directly contradicting the implied goals of 'maximum pressure' and military action.
This insight challenges conventional foreign policy assumptions, suggesting that current strategies may be counterproductive and inadvertently strengthening the targeted regime and its popular support.
Quotes
"That was not just a package of severe economic sanctions but also millions of dollars poured into media infrastructures, media warfare and psychological operations."
"Well, it's both. It's both. It's a uh an excursion that will keep us out of a war. And the war is going to be uh I mean, for them, it's a war. For us, it's uh turned out to be easier than we thought."
"This is all uh being read inside of Iran as a war on the Iranian people and on the Iranian nation. Um the Islamic Republic has not uh crumbled uh even though they took out the supreme leader. And just yesterday, Reuters reported that US intelligence um has me uh uh has concluded that the Islamic Republic is not even close to uh buckling under this kind of pressure. So this is being read inside Iran as a war on the nation and on the civil and on the civilian population because of the way that it is being carried out and it is increasing the the sense of nationalism."
"As we have already warned, if the war spreads across the region, expect oil to reach $200 per barrel. Oil prices will follow the level of security in the region and the source of that insecurity is you."
Q&A
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