Ray McGovern: Iran's Missiles Force US Retreat: Bases Moving West to Escape Attacks
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Iran has established effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, leveraging its strategic position and military capabilities.
- ❖Recent Iranian attacks have severely damaged US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, leading the US to consider relocating assets further west, potentially to Israel.
- ❖Moving US bases to Israel would make them more vulnerable targets for Iran's hypersonic missiles, which can bypass existing air defenses like the Iron Dome.
- ❖Iran views the Strait of Hormuz as its 'nuclear bomb,' a powerful leverage point against the US and its allies.
- ❖Russia's military strategy in Ukraine is characterized by attrition and a deliberate avoidance of direct escalation with NATO, despite provocations.
- ❖Putin's cautious approach is influenced by Russia's historical experience with devastating wars, aiming to secure victory on the ground without risking broader conflict.
- ❖The US administration's foreign policy is perceived as being heavily influenced by Israeli interests, potentially leading to miscalculations in the Middle East.
- ❖Iran's insistence on including Lebanon and Palestine in negotiations reflects a principled stance rooted in moral and historical issues, contrasting with Gulf states' perceived self-interest.
Insights
1Iran's Strategic Control of the Strait of Hormuz
Iran has asserted effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating its ability to disrupt shipping and impose fees on vessels. This control is seen as Iran's primary strategic leverage, enabling it to dictate terms and respond to perceived threats.
Iran hit a ship attempting to pass through the Strait, followed by US retaliation and subsequent Iranian attacks on American assets in the region, including a base in Bahrain. Iran and Oman also issued a joint statement about charging fees for passage.
2US Military Bases Forced Westward to Israel
Due to devastating Iranian attacks on US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, the United States is reassessing its forward presence and considering relocating these bases further west, with Israel being a discussed option.
The Wall Street Journal reported that attacks on bases in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain were so severe that the US is considering moving them to Israel.
3Israel's Vulnerability to Hypersonic Missiles
Relocating US bases to Israel would make them, and Israel itself, more vulnerable targets. Israel's highly advertised air defense systems, like the Iron Dome, are not airtight against Iran's proven hypersonic missiles.
The guest states that Iran has hypersonic missiles capable of penetrating any air defense, and that Israeli censorship hides the damage from past strikes. Moving US bases to Israel would make it 'even a greater and more accessible target.'
4Russia's Pragmatic and Cautious Ukraine Strategy
Russia is pursuing an attrition-based strategy in Ukraine, aiming for victory on the ground by the end of the year. Despite provocations like drone strikes from NATO territory, Russia is deliberately avoiding direct military retaliation against NATO members to prevent unpredictable escalation.
Russian officials like Zakharova state that Ukraine's drone strikes are meant to provoke escalation for more aid. Putin is described as cautious, asking 'Why do we need to do that?' when considering retaliation against NATO members, even with a low chance of NATO Article 5 invocation.
5Iran's Principled Stance on Lebanon and Palestine
Iran's insistence on including the issues of Lebanon and Palestine in its negotiations with the US is rooted in a moral and principled commitment to 'justice for the whole region,' rather than purely self-interested geopolitical maneuvering.
The host states that for Iran, Palestine and Lebanon are 'a moral issue' connected to the 1979 revolution's basis. McGovern notes Iran's 'altruistic bent on this arc of resistance' compared to Gulfies who 'have not shown they cared a whit about what happens to the Palestinians or the Hezbollah.'
Bottom Line
The US's perceived reliance on Israel's agenda in the Middle East is a significant factor in Iran's distrust and escalation of tensions, rather than direct animosity towards the US itself.
This suggests that decoupling US policy from Israeli influence could be a pathway to de-escalation with Iran, but current political structures make this difficult.
For analysts, understanding the 'Israeli agenda' as a primary driver for US involvement in the region is key to predicting future conflicts and diplomatic impasses.
The Russian intelligence service (SVR) publicly identified specific Latvian bases and decision-making coordinates being offered to Ukraine for drone attacks, but Russia has not yet retaliated directly.
This public disclosure acts as a warning shot and a form of information warfare, aiming to deter direct involvement without triggering a NATO response, showcasing Russia's non-military options for deterrence.
This highlights the evolving nature of hybrid warfare, where intelligence agencies use public statements and precise data to influence geopolitical outcomes without kinetic action.
Key Concepts
The Strait of Hormuz as a 'Nuclear Bomb'
This model describes how a strategically vital geographical choke point, like the Strait of Hormuz, can serve as a powerful deterrent and leverage tool for a nation (Iran) against more powerful adversaries, effectively acting as a non-nuclear weapon with global economic and geopolitical impact.
Attrition Warfare and Strategic Patience
This model explains a military strategy where a belligerent (Russia) focuses on gradually wearing down an opponent's resources and manpower over time, rather than seeking rapid, decisive engagements. It is characterized by a cautious, measured response to provocations, aiming to achieve long-term objectives while avoiding escalation into a larger, unpredictable conflict.
Lessons
- Monitor the Strait of Hormuz for any shifts in Iranian policy regarding passage fees or restrictions, as this directly impacts global oil prices and supply chains.
- Re-evaluate the security posture of military assets in the Middle East, considering the proven vulnerability of existing bases to advanced missile technology and the strategic implications of relocating to Israel.
- Analyze Russian public statements and military actions in Ukraine through the lens of 'strategic patience' and 'attrition warfare,' rather than expecting immediate, escalatory responses to provocations, to better forecast conflict duration and outcomes.
Quotes
"Their nuclear bomb is the Strait of Hormuz and they're going to play it for all it's worth."
"The attacks were so devastating to these bases that the United States is thinking or reassessing if they want to get back, they have to put it them far further west. It goes to Israel."
"Iran has hypersonic missiles that can get through any air defense. How do I know that? Because they've proven it."
"The only problem that Iran sees with Israel with with the United States is Israeli agenda. The United States being used in the region as a proxy."
"This attack on Iran was in response to no imminent threat from Iran and it was all due to the country of Israel and its supporters in the United States. Period. End quote."
"We're winning the war on the ground. Even if there's just a 10% chance, that's too Do you want to sacrifice everything we've built up in this country since 2000? For God's sake, look at us. We're prospering. The war is taking no real toll on our economy. We're winning and we're going to wrap this up by the end of the autumn at the latest."
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