Amb. Chas Freeman: Israel’s Grand Plan Collapsed in Record Time
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The Pentagon's stated $25 billion cost for 'Operation Epic Fury' (war on Iran) is likely a significant underestimate, with CBS reporting closer to $50 billion and expert estimates reaching up to $1 trillion long-term.
- ❖The US strategy of an economic war of attrition against Iran, primarily through oil blockade, is based on a misunderstanding of the petroleum industry and Iran's resilience.
- ❖Iran's counter-calculation is that rising oil prices (potentially $150-200/barrel) will cause significant political backlash in the US due to high gasoline costs ($4.50-$6.50/gallon).
- ❖The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is curtailing global supplies of essential commodities like fertilizer, aluminum, sulfur, and helium, leading to inflation and a probable global recession.
- ❖Israeli military is fatigued, overstretched, and relies on increasingly reluctant reservists, while its society is disconnected from the reality of its limitations due to military censorship.
- ❖Hezbollah is technologically more advanced than Hamas, utilizing FPV drones effectively against Israeli forces in Lebanon, forcing brigade withdrawals.
- ❖Iran has likely shifted its policy on nuclear weapons, with no reiteration of the non-proliferation pledge since February 28th, suggesting a move towards developing a deterrent.
- ❖The UAE's departure from OPEC signals a move away from the petrodollar and highlights acute divisions within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), potentially leading to its disintegration.
- ❖US foreign policy is characterized by a severe decline in statecraft and diplomacy, with decision-making centralized under a president detached from reality and a paralyzed State Department.
- ❖A new 'multinodal system' is emerging where middle-ranking powers, armed with drone and missile technology, can stand off militarily superior powers and enlist diplomatic support from major powers like Russia and China as equals.
Insights
1Underestimated War Costs and Long-Term Economic Burden
The Pentagon's initial estimate of $25 billion for 'Operation Epic Fury' in Iran is a significant underestimation. CBS officials reported costs closer to $50 billion, and experts like Dr. Bilmas and Nobel Prize winner Stiglitz estimate the ultimate cost, including long-term medical care for wounded personnel and veterans' administration expenses, could reach as high as $1 trillion. This highlights how immediate defense budgets often fail to capture the full societal and economic impact of prolonged conflicts.
Pentagon stated $25 billion for 'Operation Epic Fury'; US officials told CBS 'close to $50 billion'; Dr. Bilmas and Stiglitz estimate 'ultimate cost of this war may be as high as a trillion dollars' when including additional costs like wounded people and veterans' administration.
2Flawed US Economic Attrition Strategy Against Iran
The Trump administration's strategy of blockading Iranian oil to break its economy and will is based on a misunderstanding of the petroleum industry and Iran's ability to adapt. Iran can reduce production without destroying reservoirs, find alternative storage, and leverage rail connections to China and Russian support via the Caspian Sea. This makes the US calculation of Iran's imminent collapse unrealistic.
Trump administration calculates Iran will lose oil pressure in 'three weeks or two months' due to storage limits; Ambassador Freeman argues this is a 'misunderstanding' of geology and Iran's ability to 'reduce production without destroying the reservoirs' and find storage/alternative routes (China rail, Caspian Sea with Russia).
3Global Economic Fallout from Gulf Blockade
The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, intended to pressure Iran, is effectively blockading the world's oil supply. This is driving international oil prices to $150-200 per barrel, leading to gasoline prices of $4.50-$6.50 per gallon in the US. Beyond fuel, the blockade curtails global supplies of critical commodities like fertilizer, aluminum, sulfur, and helium, causing widespread inflation, crop failures, reduced agricultural yields, and a probable global recession.
Oil prices 'close to $130 a barrel' and 'easily going to 150... maybe 200'; gasoline prices 'four and a half to $5 a gallon' at $150/barrel, '6, $6.50' at $200/barrel; blockade 'curtailed fertilizer supplies globally. Aluminum... can't get out. uh uh sulfur... helium...'.
4Hezbollah's Advanced Warfare and Israeli Military Weakness
Hezbollah, unlike Hamas, is a battle-hardened militia with sophisticated technological capabilities, including FPV drones, developed with Iranian technical support and its own missile production. This has allowed it to defeat Israeli invasions of Lebanon and force Israeli brigade withdrawals, demonstrating a significant military advantage against an Israeli military configured for short, decisive wars, not attrition.
Israelis 'withdrawing various brigades from the southern part of Lebanon because FPV drones are making a lot of problems'; Hezbollah has 'technologically much more advanced' access to 'Iranian technical support', 'developed its own missile production capabilities'. 'Every time they have invaded Lebanon, they have been defeated by Husbollah'.
5Iran's Nuclear Ambitions and Deterrence Shift
Since February 28th, there has been no reiteration from Iranian leaders of the pledge not to build nuclear weapons. This suggests that elements within Iran who view nuclear weapons as essential for deterrence against US and Israeli attacks are now in charge. The US and Israel's actions have inadvertently strengthened the arguments of those advocating for a nuclear Iran, potentially leading to Iran producing a nuclear weapon and delivery means, similar to North Korea.
The last time any Iranian leader said Iran does not want and will not build nuclear weapons was February 11th. 'Since February 28th, there has been no reiteration of the pledge not to build a nuclear weapon.' 'The people in Iran who want to build a nuclear weapon... are now in charge.' Ted Postol suggests Iran is 'entirely capable of fabricating nuclear weapons in a matter of weeks, not months. Maybe it has already done so'.
6UAE's OPEC Departure and GCC Fragmentation
The UAE's decision to leave OPEC is driven by a shortage of dollars and a potential shift towards pricing oil in Chinese currency, threatening the petrodollar's global financial hegemony. This move, combined with existing tensions between the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, is likely to cause the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to lose effectiveness or even disintegrate. GCC members are increasingly seeking alternatives to US military dependence, which has proven unable to defend them and has made their bases targets for Iranian attacks.
UAE 'running out of dollars' and 'going to start pricing oil in Chinese currency'; this 'would destroy the petro dollar'. UAE leaving OPEC 'is in effect also leaving the Gulf Cooperation Council'. GCC 'is very divided' due to tensions between 'Amiratis and the Saudis' and 'UAE and Qatar'. US has 'proven unable to defend them, but unable to defend itself in the bases on their territory'.
7Decline of US Statecraft and Diplomacy
The US is demonstrating a severe decline in statecraft and diplomatic capabilities, reaching a 'new low'. The institutional base of diplomacy, the State Department, has been 'destroyed' and 'sideline,' with best personnel having left and remaining staff subjected to 'ideological boot camp.' Decision-making is centralized under a president 'detached from reality' with 'no policy process in place,' leading to a constitutional crisis where Congress is subservient and checks and balances are gone.
US 'not capable of state craft under this administration... at the level that we were previously.' State Department and Foreign Service 'have been destroyed. essentially uh sideline. The best people have left.' Donald Trump 'has no policy process in place to advise him.' Congress 'is subservient.' 'Constitutional government rule of law, checks and balances uh are all gone.'
Bottom Line
The US military's logistical support for its Navy vessels conducting the blockade is inadequate, leading to potential acts of sabotage by sailors fatigued from nearly a year at sea.
This internal strain on US military personnel could undermine the effectiveness and sustainability of long-term naval operations, particularly in extended conflicts or blockades, posing a significant operational risk.
For adversaries, understanding and exploiting these logistical and morale vulnerabilities could become a key aspect of asymmetric warfare, focusing on attrition of personnel and equipment rather than direct engagement.
Israel's military censorship and societal hubris prevent its public from understanding the full extent of damage inflicted by Iran or its own military's limitations, leading to unrealistic public support for continued war.
This information vacuum creates a dangerous disconnect between public sentiment and strategic reality, potentially prolonging conflicts that are unsustainable or detrimental to Israel's long-term security and international standing.
For international actors and analysts, recognizing this internal dynamic is crucial for predicting Israeli policy and public reaction, as well as for understanding the challenges in de-escalating conflicts or achieving lasting peace agreements.
The US attack on Iran, framed as an effort to destroy Iranian sovereignty, is inadvertently strengthening the emerging 'multinodal system' where middle-ranking powers like Iran can leverage drone/missile technology and diplomatic support from major powers like Russia and China (as equals) to resist superior forces.
This signifies a fundamental shift in global power dynamics, where traditional military superiority is increasingly challenged by technological parity (drones, missiles) and diplomatic flexibility, diminishing the effectiveness of unilateral interventions.
Nations seeking to assert greater independence from traditional hegemons can observe and emulate Iran's strategy of developing indigenous military capabilities and forging 'equal partnerships' with other major powers to enhance their deterrence and diplomatic leverage.
Key Concepts
War of Attrition (Economic & Military)
This model describes a conflict where each side attempts to wear down the other's resources, personnel, and will to fight, rather than seeking a swift, decisive victory. In the context of the US-Iran conflict, it manifests economically through blockades and sanctions, and militarily through prolonged engagements designed to exhaust the opponent's stamina and resources.
Multinodal System
This concept describes an international order where power is distributed among multiple centers or 'nodes' rather than being concentrated in a single hegemon (unipolar) or two major powers (bipolar). Relationships within this system are characterized by partnerships of equals, rather than hierarchical alliances, allowing middle-ranking powers to leverage technology and diplomacy to challenge traditionally superior forces.
Lessons
- Assess the true, long-term economic costs of military engagements, including veterans' care and global economic ripple effects, rather than relying solely on immediate defense budgets.
- Diversify energy supply chains and strategic commodity sources to mitigate the impact of geopolitical blockades and avoid over-reliance on volatile regions like the Persian Gulf.
- Invest in advanced counter-drone and anti-missile defense systems, as well as strategies for prolonged, attritional warfare, given the demonstrated effectiveness of these technologies by non-state and middle-ranking actors.
- Monitor shifts in international currency usage and regional alliances (e.g., petrodollar alternatives, GCC fragmentation) to anticipate changes in global financial hegemony and geopolitical influence.
- Prioritize the restoration of robust diplomatic institutions and statecraft capabilities to ensure effective foreign policy and avoid reliance on ad-hoc, personalized, or ideologically driven decision-making.
Notable Moments
The Pentagon's initial cost estimate for 'Operation Epic Fury' (war on Iran) was $25 billion, but CBS officials later reported it closer to $50 billion, highlighting significant discrepancies and underreporting.
This discrepancy reveals a lack of transparency and potential underestimation of the true financial burden of military conflicts, which can have profound long-term economic consequences not immediately accounted for.
Ambassador Freeman describes the US-Iran conflict as an economic war of attrition, with each side trying to 'strangle the other' through blockades and economic pressure.
This framing emphasizes the non-military dimensions of modern conflict, where economic resilience and global market impacts are as critical as military might in determining outcomes.
The latest polls show the US-Iran war is 'less popular than the Vietnam war when the Vietnam war is at its most unpopular,' indicating significant public opposition.
High public disapproval can severely constrain a government's ability to sustain prolonged conflicts, especially those with high economic costs, highlighting the political vulnerability of the US strategy.
Hezbollah's use of FPV drones forced Israeli brigades to withdraw from southern Lebanon, demonstrating the effectiveness of advanced, low-cost drone warfare against a technologically superior military.
This illustrates a critical shift in military capabilities, where asymmetric and technologically adaptive forces can challenge and defeat conventional military powers, reshaping battlefield dynamics.
The UAE's departure from OPEC is linked to running out of dollars and considering pricing oil in Chinese currency, which could 'destroy the petro dollar' and American financial hegemony.
This event signals a significant challenge to the global financial order, potentially accelerating the decline of the dollar's dominance and fostering a more multipolar currency system.
Quotes
"I think the higher number is closer, but even that is probably an underestimate. Um because there's so many costs connected with war that uh don't become apparent until much later."
"We're in a war of attrition, uh an economic war of attrition. Um, you know, basically it's as though the United States and Iran were two wrestlers, each one trying to strangle the other."
"The latest polls show that this war is now less popular than the Vietnam war when the Vietnam war is at its most unpopular."
"The United States has not only proven unable to defend them, but unable to defend itself uh in the bases on their territory. and those bases have become a justification for uh Iranian assault rather than a defense of those countries."
"The United States um is uh demonstrating that we are not capable of state craft under this administration uh at the level that we were previously."
Q&A
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