Why is Trump Fighting NATO Instead of Putin? | Command Post
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Russia has adapted its Ukraine strategy to target local energy substations and distribution nodes, creating widespread power and heat outages in extreme cold.
- ❖The US administration's insistence on controlling Greenland is seen as 'insanity' by experts, actively dividing NATO and alienating key Arctic allies like Denmark and Canada.
- ❖European allies are stepping up their defense spending and cooperation (e.g., Nordic Baltic 8) but are increasingly wary of US reliability, potentially leading to independent defense postures.
- ❖US strategic 'pivots' or withdrawals from regions create power vacuums that Russia and China exploit, as seen in Georgia, Africa, and Latin America.
- ❖The proposed integration of Elon Musk's Grok AI into the Department of Defense raises critical concerns about data security, human accountability, vendor risk, and its impact on intelligence sharing with allies.
Insights
1Russia's Evolving Strategy in Ukraine: Targeting Civilian Infrastructure
Russia has shifted its drone and missile strike strategy in Ukraine. Instead of broad blackouts, they now combine mass drone waves with ballistic missiles to target local substations and distribution nodes, aiming for a 'rolling collapse' of power and heat in major population centers during extreme cold. This tactic maximizes civilian suffering, impacting the will of the Ukrainian people.
Mark Hurtling received a text from a friend in Ukraine detailing the focus on 'heat, light, and fear,' with specific targeting of local substations and distribution aid nodes. Kyiv was completely knocked out, and an Arctic blast was expected.
2US Greenland Policy Undermines NATO and Aids Putin's Objectives
The US administration's insistence on controlling Greenland for security reasons is viewed as strategically illogical and detrimental. It alienates Denmark, a NATO ally that owns Greenland, and Canada, another key Arctic partner. This action directly aligns with Putin's strategic objective of dividing NATO and the US from European support, while simultaneously weakening US Arctic operational capacity which relies on these allies.
Bill Crystal frames the Greenland obsession as 'crazy' given the Ukraine war. Mark Hurtling states Putin's fourth and fifth strategic objectives were dividing NATO and the US from Europe. He notes the US has limited Arctic capacity and depends on Denmark and Canada, both of whom are being pushed away.
3European Allies Step Up Amid US Unreliability Concerns
While the US reduces its contributions to Ukraine, European nations are increasing their support and forming stronger regional alliances, such as the Nordic Baltic 8 (Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and the three Baltic countries). However, growing distrust of US reliability is evident, with some European voices questioning the long-term alliance and even considering independent defense measures like Sweden pursuing nuclear weapons.
Mark Hurtling mentions the EU's $90 billion loan package, European arguments over defense procurement, and the formation of the Nordic Baltic 8. He cites a Canadian reporter saying, 'we can't trust the effing Americans anymore' and Sweden's defense minister pleading for nuclear weapons.
4Strategic 'Pivots' Create Global Power Vacuums Exploited by Adversaries
US foreign policy shifts, such as the 'pivot to Asia' under Obama or current focus on Latin America, are perceived by adversaries as opportunities. These shifts create power vacuums that Russia and China are quick to fill, expanding their influence in regions where the US reduces its presence or attention.
Mark Hurtling recalls Georgia's alarm during the 'pivot to Asia' and Russia's subsequent invasion. He notes China's Belt and Road initiative in Latin America and Africa when the US signaled troop withdrawals, and the current dynamic with Iran as US forces are moved from the Mediterranean.
5Concerns Over DoD's Integration of Elon Musk's Grok AI
The Department of Defense's decision to integrate Elon Musk's Grok AI raises significant security and operational concerns. Key non-negotiables for AI use in defense—data and classification control, red teaming/bias testing, human accountability, and vendor risk assessment—are potentially compromised by a system managed by a 'suspect' individual and an organization with questionable credentials, impacting allied intelligence sharing.
Mark Hurtling notes Grok's current main use on Twitter (generating inappropriate images) and lists critical concerns: data control, red teaming, human accountability (AI assists, not owns decisions), and vendor risk (model updates, supply chain, insider threats). He highlights allied concerns about intelligence sharing.
Bottom Line
The growing unreliability of the US as a security partner is pushing European allies towards greater self-sufficiency, potentially including the development of independent nuclear capabilities or seeking alternative security alignments.
This shift could fundamentally alter the global security landscape, leading to a more fragmented and less coordinated Western defense posture, increasing the risk of regional conflicts and nuclear proliferation.
For other global powers, this creates an opportunity to forge new alliances or expand influence in regions where the US previously held sway, as China is already doing.
The US administration's lack of a comprehensive, 'whole of government' strategy for geopolitical challenges, particularly in areas like Iran, leaves critical gaps in soft power and information operations.
Relying solely on military options without robust diplomatic, economic, and informational components is ineffective for complex, long-term challenges like regime change or countering adversary narratives, potentially exacerbating crises.
Adversaries can exploit these informational and diplomatic vacuums to spread their narratives, undermine US influence, and consolidate their power without significant counter-pressure.
Key Concepts
Power Vacuum Principle
When a major power withdraws or shifts focus from a region, adversaries or competing powers will inevitably step in to fill the void, often leading to instability or increased influence for rivals. This is exemplified by Russia's actions after the 'pivot to Asia' and China's expansion in Africa and Latin America.
Whole of Government Approach
Effective national power projection and crisis resolution require a coordinated effort across all instruments of power (diplomatic, informational, military, economic), not just military force. The hosts argue that a military-only response to complex issues like the Iranian protests is insufficient and often counterproductive.
Lessons
- Prioritize strengthening existing alliances and supporting partners like Ukraine, as this directly counters adversary objectives and reinforces global stability.
- Ensure all strategic shifts and policy decisions are thoroughly vetted for their geopolitical implications, avoiding actions that inadvertently create power vacuums or alienate allies.
- Implement a 'whole of government' approach to international crises, integrating diplomatic, economic, informational, and military tools, rather than relying on military force alone.
- Establish rigorous security protocols, independent oversight, and human accountability frameworks for all AI integration into critical defense systems to prevent data breaches, algorithmic bias, and compromised intelligence sharing.
Notable Moments
Discussion of Russia's 'meat cannon' strategy, where they push soldiers into high-casualty zones, highlighting the human cost of the conflict.
This grim description underscores the brutality of the war and Russia's willingness to absorb massive losses, providing context for the ongoing conflict's intensity.
The hosts' strong condemnation of the US's Greenland policy as 'insanity' and a direct contradiction of efforts to curb Putin.
This highlights a perceived profound disconnect in US foreign policy, where internal political objectives are seen as undermining crucial national security interests and alliances.
The anecdote about a Canadian reporter at the Halifax Security Forum stating, 'we can't trust the effing Americans anymore.'
This quote, though from one individual, encapsulates the growing sentiment of distrust among allies, signaling a significant erosion of confidence in US leadership and reliability.
Quotes
"How crazy it is to be not helping Ukraine and then obsessing over Greenland."
"Russia hasn't gained much on much ground on the front line... but at the national level, Russia has adapted a new approach to drone and missile strikes... targeting now specifically are local substations and distribution aid nodes throughout Ukraine. So they're creating... 'rolling collapse' of power and heat for big population centers."
"The first three [of Putin's strategic objectives] he hasn't achieved. The last two [dividing NATO and the US from Europe] seems to be coming to fruition right now."
"While Ukraine is fighting for survival, we're we're fighting NATO uh which is on fire from inside over Greenland. It just doesn't make any sense."
"You can't kill your way out of it. You've got to use other methods."
"If you go on Twitter the main use of Grock is to take fully clothed women and put them in string bikinis. So this this is an organization that doesn't have the credentials uh for being all that safe and sound."
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