Trump Broke U.S. Foreign Policy—Now What? (w/ Juan Gonzalez) | How to Fix It
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The Trump administration's foreign policy was 'drunk on coercive power' and often failed to consider second and third-order effects, as seen in Iran and Venezuela.
- ❖In Venezuela, the US shifted from prioritizing democracy to an economic stabilization plan, potentially empowering Deli Rodriguez over opposition leaders like Maria Korina Machado.
- ❖Cuba is experiencing its worst humanitarian crisis in over a century, exacerbated by US sanctions, with the regime seeking 'capitalism with sovereignty' rather than full democratic change.
- ❖China is quietly integrating into Latin American supply chains and acquiring strategic ports, advancing its economic interests despite US military interventions.
- ❖US foreign policy in Latin America should prioritize robust, ambitious diplomacy combined with surgical sanctions, rather than promoting regime change through humanitarian suffering.
- ❖The US historically neglected Latin America after the Cold War, focusing on trade, migration, and drugs, but the region is now indispensable for US global leadership and stability.
Insights
1Trump Administration's Coercive Foreign Policy and Unintended Consequences
The Trump administration's foreign policy was characterized by a reliance on 'coercive power' and a lack of consideration for the second and third-order effects of its decisions. This approach, seen in actions against Iran and Venezuela, often failed to achieve stated goals and instead led to increased instability and humanitarian suffering, such as rising oil prices and a lack of coordination with allies.
The initial strike on Iran may have set back its nuclear program but didn't destroy it, and the administration 'didn't see consequences right away.' In Venezuela, a billion-dollar operation to remove Maduro didn't immediately yield results. The administration was 'drunk on coercive power' () and felt it could promote regime change in complex regions like Iran.
2Shift in Venezuela Policy: From Democracy-First to Economic Normalization
The US approach to Venezuela shifted from the Biden administration's 'democracy as the gateway toward an economic normalization' (07:54) to the Trump administration's three-phase plan (announced by Marco Rubio) prioritizing economic stabilization and recovery before political transition. This new approach, focusing on oil interests, has empowered figures like Deli Rodriguez, Maduro's former vice president, who is now unsanctioned and working to stabilize the country.
Rubio's plan involves 'stabilization, economic recovery, and then a political transition' (). Trump is 'focused on the oil' () and 'happy to deal with Deli Rodriguez,' who had sanctions lifted (). Dissidents outside Venezuela push for faster elections, while those inside prioritize food, security, and jobs, which Rodriguez might deliver.
3Cuba's Humanitarian Crisis and US Policy Challenges
Cuba is facing its worst humanitarian crisis in over a century, exacerbated by US sanctions and the cutting off of oil supplies. The Cuban regime, deeply institutionalized, is unlikely to concede to US demands for democratic change, instead seeking 'capitalism with sovereignty' – foreign investment without altering its political model. The US policy under Trump has been a hardline approach, winding back Obama-era liberalizations.
Cuba is experiencing the 'worst humanitarian crisis that it's suffered in over a hundred years' (). The regime wants 'capitalism with sovereignty' () and US companies to invest while maintaining their model. The 'Cuban model is much more institutionalized' (), and the regime will 'not negotiate anything except for its own survival' ().
4China's Quiet Economic Integration in Latin America
While the US has focused on military interventions and coercive measures in Latin America, China has been quietly advancing its economic interests, integrating itself into the region's supply chains, and acquiring strategic assets like ports. This includes continuing to receive Venezuelan oil as debt repayment, even as the US uses military force.
China is 'under the radar integrating itself into the supply chains of the Western Hemisphere' (), acquiring 'strategic ports' () like Chankai in Peru (60% Chinese-owned). China's 'biggest interest is that the enormous debt that Venezuela has to them is paid in oil. And Trump has not stopped that at any point' ().
Bottom Line
The current US hardline policy towards Cuba, combined with its severe humanitarian crisis, risks a 'Haiti-like situation' where a regime change could lead to widespread instability, violence, and a power vacuum contested by armed groups, rather than a smooth democratic transition.
This suggests that a sudden collapse of the Cuban regime, while desired by some, could create a far more complex and dangerous scenario for the US, requiring extensive and potentially costly stabilization efforts, possibly involving multilateral intervention.
A more managed, diplomatic transition, potentially involving a 'Deli Rodriguez-like' figure, could be a less chaotic path, but the guest notes such a figure is currently absent in Cuba's institutionalized Communist Party.
Despite US efforts to assert influence through military and coercive means in Latin America, China is strategically and quietly deepening its economic ties, securing critical resources (lithium, copper, natural gas) and infrastructure (ports), often benefiting from the US's focus on short-term, high-profile interventions.
This indicates that US foreign policy may be missing the long-term, economic competition in its own hemisphere, allowing China to gain significant strategic footholds that could undermine future US influence and access to vital resources.
A future US administration could pivot to an 'economic tools' approach, developing new mechanisms to help middle-income partners address challenges like criminality and cyberattacks, thereby counteracting China's influence through constructive engagement rather than solely coercive measures.
Opportunities
Investment in Venezuelan Oil and Natural Gas Sector
With a shift in Venezuelan leadership and potential for US companies to gain preferential access, there's a long-term opportunity to invest in revitalizing Venezuela's decimated oil production (currently ~1 million barrels/day, down from 3+ million) and developing its vast natural gas reserves, which could rival Qatar's.
Support and Investment in Cuba's Private Sector
Encouraging and investing in Cuba's growing small business sector (private sector) could serve as a tool for economic liberalization and provide independent agency for Cubans, potentially leading to broader societal and political changes. This would involve reversing policies that previously 'killed' or 'strangled' its growth.
Key Concepts
Engagement as a Subversive Act
This model posits that diplomatic engagement with autocratic regimes, rather than isolation, can subtly undermine their control by introducing external ideas, information, and economic opportunities that empower moderates and the private sector, leading to gradual democratic opening. Ricardo Zuniga's approach to Cuba under Obama, allowing Google servers, is cited as an example.
Coercive Power Without Foresight
This describes a foreign policy approach that relies heavily on sanctions, military strikes, and regime change operations without adequately considering the long-term, second and third-order effects. The Trump administration's actions in Iran and Venezuela are presented as examples where immediate coercive actions did not lead to desired outcomes and often created new problems, such as humanitarian crises or geopolitical vacuums.
Lessons
- Prioritize robust and ambitious diplomatic engagement with countries like Cuba, balancing leverage and pressure with clear communication and a roadmap for democratic and economic liberalization.
- Implement surgical economic sanctions that target specific regime elements rather than broad embargos that cause widespread humanitarian suffering and empower hardliners.
- Re-engage with Latin America as an indispensable region for US international leadership, moving beyond 'gunboat diplomacy' to develop new economic tools and partnerships that address modern challenges like criminality and cyberattacks.
A Diplomatic and Economic Engagement Strategy for Cuba
Establish clear principles: Reject regime change through humanitarian suffering as ineffective and morally wrong, focusing instead on leverage combined with ambitious diplomatic engagement.
Re-establish full diplomatic presence: Appoint an ambassador to Cuba and engage in clear negotiations on human rights, law enforcement cooperation, and the influence of China and Russia.
Offer carrots and sticks: Present a robust diplomatic initiative with incentives for concessions, aiming for a roadmap for dialogue between the regime and the Cuban people to liberalize the economy and political system.
Support the Cuban private sector: Actively encourage and enable the growth of small businesses as a tool for independent agency and economic transition for Cubans.
Multilateralize solutions: In moments of crisis, seek UN Security Council resolutions and international cooperation for stabilization efforts, rather than unilateral US intervention.
Quotes
"This administration, I think to a certain extent, really was drunk on coercive power and felt that they could actually promote regime change in a place like Iran that is much more complicated than even Iraq or or Afghanistan."
"Engagement is a subversive act and that you needed to talk to the Cubans, communicate our concerns and and make very clear that a better relationship required a democratic opening in the country."
"Trying to promote regime change through humanitarian suffering is only not effective, it is I think morally wrong."
"The art of diplomacy is telling somebody to go to hell and having them enjoy the ride."
"The Trump administration, I think, is telling Democrats and telling the foreign policy establishment is that you ignore the Western Hemisphere at your peril and then you need to develop new tools for us to really ensure that we're advancing our interests and that we're promoting stability and democracy in the Western Hemisphere as a necessary ingredient for us to actually be strong, a strong country with global reach."
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