JUST IN: Israeli F-16 Downed by Iran,The Middle East Will Never Be the Same | Nima R. Alkhorshid
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖US-Israeli attempts to weaken Iran and its 'Axis of Resistance' through sanctions, assassinations, and military strikes have consistently failed.
- ❖The '12-day war' saw Israel attack Iran but ultimately beg for a ceasefire after significant Iranian retaliation.
- ❖Iran's internal system, including its military and political structure, has proven robust against external pressure and attempts at regime change.
- ❖The US is perceived as a 'slave' to Israeli foreign policy, lacking independent strategy in the Middle East.
- ❖The 'Axis of Resistance' is growing stronger, defining a new regional security architecture on the battlefield.
- ❖Iran possesses long-range missiles capable of hitting targets like Diego Garcia, demonstrating expanded military reach.
Insights
1Initial Israeli Air Losses Signal Iranian Air Defense Strength
Early in the conflict (from the March 2026 perspective), Israeli F-16 and F-35 fighter jets were reportedly shot down by Iranian air defense systems, indicating a significant capability to counter advanced Western aircraft. This contradicted narratives of Iranian military weakness.
last night we've learned that in Israeli F16 was hit by Iranian air defense system and the night before we had F35 been hit
2Trump's Strategy: Sanctions, Assassination, and Failed Regime Change
The Trump administration's primary goal was to cripple the Iranian economy with 'tremendous sanctions' and dismantle the 'Axis of Resistance' by assassinating key figures like General Soleimani, a highly respected commander and diplomat. This was based on the belief that Soleimani was the 'backbone of the resistance,' and his removal would lead to Iranian capitulation.
He was trying to put tremendous sanctions on the Iranian economy... He assassinated the Iranian commander General Solimmani... they thought that everything Iran this sort of hegemony... is based on the you know one person who is General Slemani. have to kill him in order to break the backbone of the resistance.
3US-Israeli Military Failures Against Regional Proxies
Campaigns against the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, intended to weaken the 'Axis of Resistance,' failed to achieve their objectives. The US withdrew from Yemen after two months, unable to defeat the Houthis due to intelligence gaps and drone losses. Hezbollah, despite initial claims of weakening, became a more potent force, hitting southern Israel.
They started this fight and went after Yemenes... they have decided that Houth is suddenly you know capitulated and we're not going to continue with this fight because they couldn't achieve anything... Hezbollah is back... They have never done this before this war happening.
4The '12-Day War' and Israeli Capitulation
Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran in June 2025, supported by the US and NATO, aiming for a quick regime change by neutralizing air defenses and assassinating leaders. However, Iran responded forcefully, inflicting significant damage on Israel and depleting its air defense interceptors, leading Israel to 'beg for a ceasefire.'
Then in June we had a new war Israel is Israel attacking Iran on June 13... 12-day war has shown the United States and Israel that it doesn't matter the commanders you hit... Iran just reshaping and attacking Israel and the attacks were somehow so strong that Israel finally decided... Israel was begging at the end of 12 day war was begging for the ceasefire.
5Iran's Resilience Against Economic Warfare and Orchestrated Riots
US-imposed sanctions aimed to destabilize Iran's economy and incite popular unrest. External actors, including MSAD agents, allegedly exploited protests, turning them into 'riots' to justify civilian casualties and regime change. Iran countered by shutting down internet access, including Starlink, to disrupt external coordination of these riots.
Donald Trump was trying to understand the situation in Iran by imposing more sanctions and bringing more pain to the Iranian economy... They were preparing with MSAD agents on on streets among protesters to prepare the whole case because they wanted riots... They shut down in the internet in Iran. Then it wasn't just the, you know, the regular Iranian internet. It was a Starling.
6US Foreign Policy in the Middle East is Subservient to Israel
The speaker asserts that the United States lacks an independent foreign policy in the Middle East, with its actions and agenda 'determined' and 'shaped by Israel and the Israeli agenda.' This dynamic explains US involvement in conflicts that may not serve its own national interests.
when it comes to the Middle East, the United States is not a sovereign state. They don't have their own policies. Their policies are determined. Their policies are shaped by Israel and the Israeli agenda.
7Iran's Robust Military and Political System Undefeatable
Despite US and Israeli assumptions of Iranian weakness, Iran has built a 'robust system' militarily and politically that cannot be destroyed. Its strategic targeting avoids civilians, even in retaliatory strikes, contrasting with US/Israeli actions that reportedly hit civilian infrastructure due to poor intelligence.
Iran doesn't matter you want to call them moolas... Iranian reality today is that they are they have built a robust system inside the country militarily and politically that cannot be destroyed... the targets are so stupid, are so dumb. They're hitting civilians, hospitals, schools... Iran is not going to kill civilians. Iran is attacking the strategic, you know, targets in Israel.
8NATO Withdrawal and Iran's Expanded Missile Capabilities
NATO troops began withdrawing from the region despite assisting the US, signaling a lack of commitment to a prolonged conflict. Concurrently, Iran unveiled new missiles with ranges exceeding 3,500 km, capable of striking distant US bases like Diego Garcia, demonstrating a significant escalation in its deterrent capabilities.
yesterday we learned that NATO troops are leaving the region... Iran is bringing something new. the new missiles that were reported by Wall Street Journal... with a range more than you know three more than 3,500... they can hit the Diego Garcia.
Bottom Line
The US and Israel's strategy of targeting Iranian civilian infrastructure and inciting internal riots is a sign of intelligence failure, as they cannot locate or effectively hit strategic military targets.
This suggests a fundamental miscalculation of Iranian capabilities and internal cohesion, leading to counterproductive tactics that only strengthen popular resistance.
For analysts, this highlights the importance of accurate, ground-level intelligence over relying on diaspora narratives or outdated assumptions when assessing geopolitical adversaries.
Iran's ability to control the Strait of Hormuz and potentially disrupt global oil supplies is a non-negotiable leverage point, capable of bringing the 'whole global economy to its knees.'
This capability serves as a powerful deterrent against direct military escalation, forcing Western powers to consider the severe economic repercussions of a full-scale conflict.
Businesses and governments reliant on global energy markets must develop contingency plans for extreme supply disruptions, as this threat is framed as a critical, active component of Iran's defense strategy.
The 'Axis of Resistance' is not just surviving but actively growing stronger and more coordinated, defining a new regional security architecture on the battlefield.
This challenges the narrative of a weakened or fragmented resistance, indicating a cohesive and evolving anti-Western bloc that is successfully pushing back against US-Israeli regional dominance.
Regional powers, particularly Arab states, are urged to reconsider their alliances and recognize Iran as a potential security guarantor rather than relying on a declining US presence.
Key Concepts
Axis of Resistance
A geopolitical alignment of states and non-state actors in the Middle East, including Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and various Iraqi and Yemeni groups, united by opposition to US and Israeli influence. The speaker frames this axis as growing stronger and more coordinated.
Strategic Submission
The ultimate objective of US and Israeli policy towards regional adversaries, aiming to force them into capitulation and subservience rather than genuine negotiation or coexistence. The speaker argues this goal is unrealistic for Iran.
Lessons
- Recognize that the conflict in the Middle East is framed as a strategic failure for US-Israeli policy, leading to a stronger, more unified 'Axis of Resistance.'
- Understand that Iran's military and political system has demonstrated significant resilience against sanctions, assassinations, and direct military attacks, including advanced air defense capabilities.
- Consider the argument that US foreign policy in the Middle East is heavily influenced by Israeli interests, potentially leading to decisions that do not serve broader American objectives.
Notable Moments
The assassination of Iranian General Soleimani by the Trump administration.
This act, intended to break the 'backbone of the resistance,' is framed as a major strategic miscalculation that failed to weaken Iran's regional influence.
The '12-day war' where Israel attacked Iran, but Iran's counter-attacks forced Israel to beg for a ceasefire.
This event is presented as definitive proof of Iran's military capability to defend itself and inflict significant damage on Israel, contradicting narratives of Iranian military inferiority.
Iran's shutdown of internet access, including Starlink, to counter externally orchestrated riots.
This demonstrates Iran's sophisticated capabilities to control internal information flow and neutralize foreign attempts to destabilize the country through digital means.
The reported downing of Israeli F-16 and F-35 jets by Iranian air defense systems.
This highlights Iran's advanced air defense capabilities, challenging the perceived air superiority of Israeli and US forces.
Quotes
"He assassinated the Iranian commander General Solimmani. If you remember that he was not just a simple commander. He was a very respected commander in the Middle East and a diplomat..."
"We are not dependent on the on bubble mandap on the Red Sea."
"Go and do it. We are prepared. We are deceiving Iranians. You can attack."
"Israel was begging at the end of 12 day war was begging for the ceasefire"
"the United States is not a sovereign state. They don't have their own policies. Their policies are determined. Their policies are shaped by Israel and the Israeli agenda."
"Iran is not Iraq nor Afghanistan. Iran is different. Iran is a civilization. Iran is an ancient country, ancient culture in which we have Christians, Muslims, Shia, Sunni, Jews. All these people were living together for centuries, for thousands of years."
Q&A
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