Larry C. Johnson & Col. Larry Wilkerson: Russia + Iran + China: War Shield That Changes the World
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖US F-35s and carrier strike groups are severely limited in range and defensive capacity against Iran's missile capabilities, making initial strikes highly vulnerable.
- ❖Iran possesses a diverse arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles, drones, and extensive underground facilities, making a comprehensive strike against its capabilities extremely difficult.
- ❖The US risks losing aircraft carriers and thousands of personnel in a conflict with Iran, with inadequate rescue capabilities.
- ❖Israel may initiate a nuclear strike against Iran if conventional attacks fail or if the US hesitates, potentially triggering a wider nuclear conflict.
- ❖Saudi Arabia and Iran are both believed to possess or have access to nuclear weapons, increasing regional volatility.
- ❖Russia has abandoned hopes for a negotiated settlement with the US regarding Ukraine, accelerating its military campaign and consolidating control.
- ❖US foreign policy in the Caucasus (Armenia/Azerbaijan) is viewed as a CIA-driven strategy to destabilize the region and weaken Russia and Iran.
- ❖Germany faces a critical decision to forge a new relationship with Moscow to rescue Europe, as the EU and NATO's relevance wanes.
- ❖China is actively working to dominate global finance, building on its existing leadership in technology, economics, and industry.
Insights
1US Military Strategy Against Iran is Critically Flawed and Underprepared
Larry C. Johnson details significant military deficiencies in a potential US attack on Iran. F-35 combat aircraft, with a 600-mile combat radius, would be stationed 1,000 miles offshore, leaving them 400 miles short of targets even if ships move closer. Destroyers, reconfigured for land-based Tomahawk missiles, would have only 36-46 air defense missiles, capable of withstanding only 23 inbound attacks before running out of ammunition. This makes them highly vulnerable to Iranian 'swarm attacks' of 50+ missiles and drones on the first day. Land-based F-35s from Jordan would also face range issues (900 miles to Tehran vs. 600-mile range) and airspace denial from Iraq and Saudi Arabia, complicating refueling. Johnson compares this to the US inability to stop Houthi attacks after seven weeks, calling the idea of defeating Iran 'madness'.
F-35 combat radius (600 miles) vs. stationing (1000 miles offshore); destroyer missile loadout (50 Tomahawk, 36-46 air defense) vs. swarm attack vulnerability; Houthi comparison.
2High Risk of US Carrier Losses and Personnel Casualties in Iran Conflict
Colonel Wilkerson, drawing on his experience planning at USCENTCOM, confirms the vulnerability of US aircraft carriers. He states that during Cold War planning against the Soviets, 50% of carriers were expected to be lost crossing the 1000-mile line due to advanced Soviet submarines, sea skimmers, and fast missiles. He applies this directly to Iran, noting their high-velocity ballistic missiles pose a similar threat. An admiral's article in Proceedings magazine highlighted that if a carrier is seriously hit, 2,000 people could die immediately and another 2,000 would be in the water, with insufficient escort ships and berth space for survivors. US strike groups are now even smaller, exacerbating this problem.
Historical planning for 50% carrier loss crossing 1000-mile line; admiral's article on 2,000 immediate deaths and 2,000 in water; lack of escort ships and berth space for survivors.
3Israel's Nuclear Threat and Delusional Underestimation of Iran
Colonel Wilkerson expresses concern that if conventional attacks against Iran go sour for Israel, Netanyahu will use a nuclear weapon, not as a threat, but as an actual strike. He believes Netanyahu has threatened this before to influence US actions. Larry Johnson adds that Israel's obsession with destroying Iran's ballistic missile capability is based on a false narrative from the '12-day war,' where Israel claimed to shoot down 90% of missiles. Johnson calculates that if 458 buildings in Tel Aviv were damaged (as reported), and only 10% of missiles got through, Iran would have fired 4,580 missiles, indicating a far greater impact than Israel admitted. Both agree that the belief in Iran's weakness and lack of internal support is 'delusional,' as national pride would unite Iranians against an attack.
Netanyahu's past nuclear threats; 458 damaged buildings in Tel Aviv vs. 90% intercept claim; Iranian foreign minister's willingness to negotiate on enrichment levels.
4Iran and Saudi Arabia Possess or Have Access to Nuclear Weapons
Colonel Wilkerson states he would not be surprised if Iran already has nuclear weapons, either hidden or acquired from Pakistan, citing Pakistan's AQ Khan's mantra that Islamic countries should possess atomic bombs. Larry Johnson corroborates this, referencing a resurfaced interview with former CIA operations officer Dewey Clarridge from over 10 years ago, who claimed Saudi Arabia had nukes given by Pakistan due to Saudi financing. A former IRGC commander reiterated this to Rick Sanchez in Tehran. The question remains how Saudi Arabia would deliver them, but their existence adds a volatile dimension to the region.
AQ Khan's influence in Pakistan; Dewey Clarridge's claim of Saudi nukes from Pakistan; former IRGC commander's reiteration of Saudi nukes.
5Russia Abandons US Diplomacy, Accelerates Ukraine War, and Shifts Geopolitical Focus
Larry Johnson observes a significant shift in Russian policy over the past few weeks, indicating Putin has abandoned hopes for a negotiated settlement with the US. This is evidenced by an unprecedented series of public statements from Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, emphasizing the deteriorating relationship and Russia's firm demands. Johnson interprets this as Russia accelerating its military campaign in Ukraine, aiming to destroy infrastructure, target NATO personnel, and secure a military victory that will lead to Ukrainian surrender terms. Colonel Wilkerson adds that Putin must now look beyond Ukraine to Southwest Asia, and Russia, with the 'most powerful army in the world' and a robust industrial base, will be free to pursue these other interests once Ukraine is settled.
Sergey Lavrov's unprecedented public statements (RT, BRICS TV, NTV, Duma); 'frank discussion' term used by Russians for US meetings; accelerated military actions in Ukraine (destroying lights, hitting NATO personnel).
6US Foreign Policy in the Caucasus is a CIA-Driven Strategy to Destabilize Russia and Iran
Larry Johnson highlights recent US engagement in Armenia and Azerbaijan, including JD Vance's visit and Trump hosting their presidents for a 'peace agreement.' He argues this is not driven by Trump but by the CIA, as part of a long-range plan to defeat and destroy Russia and Iran. The goal is to disrupt the Caucasus region, which serves as a crucial land bridge between mainland Russia and Iran, thereby gaining strategic leverage over both nations. Johnson warns that the US is acting as a 'rabid dog,' obsessed with destroying Russia and China, and that there is no path to peace with the US in its current condition.
JD Vance's visit to Armenia/Azerbaijan; Trump hosting Armenian/Azerbaijani presidents for a 'peace agreement'; strategic importance of the Caucasus land bridge.
Bottom Line
The US military's inability to neutralize Houthi missile threats after seven weeks with significant naval assets demonstrates a critical gap in capability that makes claims of defeating Iran's far more advanced and diversified missile arsenal highly questionable.
This suggests a profound overestimation of US military effectiveness against modern, asymmetric missile threats, implying that a conflict with Iran would be far more protracted and costly than anticipated, potentially leading to strategic defeat.
This highlights a market for advanced, cost-effective counter-swarm and anti-ship missile defense systems, as well as intelligence capabilities to locate and neutralize deeply embedded, underground missile infrastructure.
Israel's 'suicidal' logic for attacking Iran, even if it means self-destruction, is rooted in a significant portion of its Jewish population being 'bloodthirsty villains' who back Netanyahu's aggression against Palestinians and desire the West Bank, regardless of their personal dislike for him.
This indicates that Israeli actions are not purely rational military calculations but are driven by deep-seated ideological and demographic factors, making de-escalation or diplomatic solutions extremely difficult and increasing the risk of an irrational, catastrophic conflict.
Understanding these underlying motivations is critical for international diplomacy and conflict resolution efforts, suggesting that appeals to rational self-interest may be ineffective. It points to the need for internal political shifts within Israel or external pressures that address these ideological drivers.
The US is perceived by Russia and China as a 'rabid dog' obsessed with their destruction, leading them to believe there is no path to peace or negotiation with the current US administration.
This perception eliminates the possibility of diplomatic breakthroughs and reinforces a confrontational stance from Russia and China, accelerating the formation of a hostile multipolar world order and increasing the likelihood of direct or proxy conflicts.
For non-aligned nations or businesses operating globally, this insight underscores the need to diversify alliances and supply chains away from US influence, as the US's 'rabid dog' approach could lead to unpredictable actions and sanctions that disrupt global trade and stability.
Lessons
- Re-evaluate US military doctrine and procurement strategies to address the demonstrated vulnerabilities of carrier strike groups and F-35s against modern, diversified missile threats, particularly from state actors like Iran.
- Pressure diplomatic channels to explore Iran's stated willingness to return to JCPOA enrichment levels (20%) and allow full inspections, potentially involving Russia and China, as a viable off-ramp to conflict, rather than imposing maximalist demands that guarantee war.
- Develop robust contingency plans for a potential nuclear escalation in the Middle East, including strategies for managing regional fallout, humanitarian crises, and the global economic impact, given the high probability of Israeli nuclear use and the alleged nuclear capabilities of Saudi Arabia and Iran.
- Monitor the hardening of Russian foreign policy and its accelerated military actions in Ukraine, recognizing that diplomatic solutions are increasingly unlikely and Russia will consolidate its gains, freeing up resources for other geopolitical priorities.
- Analyze the implications of China's aggressive push for global financial dominance and its strategic partnership with Russia, as this will fundamentally reshape global economic and power structures, requiring adjustments in investment, trade, and national security strategies.
Notable Moments
Larry C. Johnson's detailed breakdown of US military vulnerabilities against Iran, including F-35 range limitations and destroyer missile capacity, directly challenging the notion of an easy victory.
This provides concrete, specific evidence undermining conventional wisdom about US military superiority, highlighting critical tactical and logistical flaws that could lead to significant losses in a conflict with Iran.
Colonel Wilkerson's historical context of expecting 50% carrier losses against the Soviets and applying it to Iran, coupled with the lack of rescue capabilities for thousands of sailors.
This underscores the catastrophic human and material cost of a potential carrier strike group engagement, revealing a profound lack of preparedness for mass casualties and a potential strategic defeat at sea.
The discussion around Israel's 'delusional' belief in Iran's weakness and the host's question about Israel's 'suicidal' logic for attacking Iran.
This exposes the ideological and potentially irrational drivers behind Israeli policy, suggesting that a conflict might not be based on sound military calculus but on deeply ingrained biases and political motivations, increasing the risk of extreme escalation.
Larry Johnson's assertion that US foreign policy in the Caucasus is being driven by the CIA, not the Trump administration, to destabilize Russia and Iran.
This offers a controversial but specific claim about the deep state's influence on foreign policy, suggesting a hidden agenda that prioritizes geopolitical disruption over stated diplomatic goals, impacting trust and international relations.
Colonel Wilkerson's scathing critique of how the US treats its allies, stating, 'We haven't cared about our allies on any battlefield in the last 30 years.'
This challenges the narrative of the US as a reliable ally, potentially eroding confidence among partners and pushing countries like Germany to seek alternative alliances or nuclear capabilities, fundamentally reshaping global security architecture.
Quotes
"If you got a 600 mile radius and you're 1,000 miles offshore, you're still 400 miles shy. So, let's assume that they bring the ships in a 100 miles offshore. They still can only fly about a third of the way to Tehran. So they have very limited range."
"If Iran launches a swarm attack with 50 missiles and drones? Boom. Man, they are out. They're out of ammunition to the ability to defend themselves on the first day."
"We couldn't stop the Houthies after seven weeks with two aircraft carriers and four destroyers and one cruiser. And we're gonna go now go into Iran, which has an actual air defense and an actual air force and is, you know, nine times the size of Yemen, and we're going to find all their ballistic missiles and destroy them. Madness. Absolute madness."
"We'd lose 50% of them as we cross that line because at that point the Soviets had submarines that could hit us. They had sea skimmers that could hit us and they had really fast missiles that came in and dived on us that could hit us and they had bombers. So, we knew we were going to lose carriers."
"If a carrier gets hit, seriously hit, and there are 2,000 people dead almost immediately and say another 2,000 in the water... We don't have enough escort ships and birth space to pick up the survivors."
"My country, our armed forces are fully prepared for any eventuality, but my preference is diplomacy."
"One of my greatest fears is that Trump will at the last minute either achieve some sort of diplomatic deal or that he will accept or have cold feet about what Larry and I were just talking about. And Netanyahu will use a nuclear weapon."
"The United States is a rabid dog. It is not to be trusted."
"We haven't cared about our allies on any battlefield in the last 30 years. The last battlefield we cared about our allies on was Korea."
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