Taking Greenland Would Trigger a NATO Crisis (w/ Mark Hertling) | The Bulwark Podcast

General Hertling critically views masked ICE and CBP agents operating without visible identification as 'thugs and cowards.' He draws a direct parallel to his experience with early Iraqi security forces, who initially wore masks due to corruption and a lack of public pride, only removing them as they gained capability and public trust. This lack of accountability for US agents is seen as counter to constitutional rights and democratic values.

Hertling's personal experience commanding US forces in Iraq (2007-2009) and observing Iraqi police evolution. Host Tim Miller cites a 30-point drop in ICE's favorability rating since Trump's inauguration.

Hertling asserts that the shooting of Renee Nicole Good in Minneapolis was not a split-second decision based on fear, but rather a purposeful act by an individual lacking proper training in the limited use of force. He contrasts this with the rigorous training of military personnel in combat zones, who are taught to disable vehicles before resorting to lethal force and to de-escalate situations, even in highly dangerous environments.

Hertling's experience training soldiers for combat and gate security in Iraq, where rules of engagement prioritize disabling vehicles and de-escalation. He highlights the aggressive initial approach by officers ('get out of the car') and the victim's non-threatening posture.

The current widespread protests in Iran are primarily driven by economic hardship, not solely policy or religion. Hertling argues that a military-only response, such as bombing campaigns, is ineffective and dangerous given the large size of the IRGC (200,000) and Basij (600,000) forces. He stresses the necessity of a comprehensive 'DIME' strategy—Diplomacy, Information, Military, and Economic power—to achieve a desired end-state, rather than just reacting with force.

Hertling's analysis of the economic roots of the protests and the numerical strength of Iranian security forces. He points to the US removing its carrier strike group from the Arabian Gulf and Denmark's refusal to assist due to prior diplomatic insults.

The reported request for JSOC (Joint Special Operations Command) to plan an invasion of Greenland is deemed 'insanity.' Hertling explains that JSOC is designed for specific, rapid, high-impact operations, not large-scale invasions requiring extensive logistics, land, sea, and air forces. Such an invasion of Greenland, a territory of NATO ally Denmark, would constitute an attack on a NATO member, triggering Article 4 of the NATO treaty and potentially leading to a collective defense response against the US.

Hertling's explanation of JSOC's mission vs. conventional invasion planning. He highlights Greenland's population (50,000), ice coverage (80%), and Denmark's status as a NATO ally.

Russia has shifted tactics, now systematically targeting Ukrainian substations with ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones nightly. This strategy aims to break the will of the Ukrainian people by cutting off electricity and heat in sub-zero temperatures, leading to a severe humanitarian crisis. Meanwhile, global attention and support for Ukraine have waned, and geopolitical maneuvering (e.g., Belgium being pressured on frozen assets, Macron's demands for EU-only defense purchases) further complicates aid efforts.

A direct report from an American contact in Ukraine detailing nightly substation attacks, 14-day arctic blast forecasts, bursting pipes, and civilian fear. Mention of 110 American volunteers killed.

Reports of the Defense Department testing devices believed to be responsible for Havana Syndrome are likely accurate. These incidents are attributed to 'non-lethal weapon systems' designed to incapacitate enemies for short periods using audio or other classified means. The US military has capabilities in this area, and the classified nature of such weapons explains the initial public ambiguity surrounding the syndrome.

Hertling confirms the likelihood of DoD testing and the existence of classified non-lethal weapon systems, aligning with earlier reports by Michael Weiss linking the syndrome to Russia's GRU.