Anne Applebaum: Europe Is Preparing for an America That Turns Hostile | The Bulwark Podcast
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖European nations are 'hedging' against a potentially hostile US, with leaders questioning America's reliability as an ally.
- ❖The transformation of ICE into a paramilitary force is a domestic authoritarian trend, designed for intimidation and political leverage.
- ❖Trump's 'Monroe Doctrine' approach to Venezuela, focused on resource extraction, disregards democratic aspirations and risks violent internal pushback.
Insights
1ICE's Transformation into a Paramilitary Force for Intimidation
ICE has been transformed into a masked, heavily armed paramilitary force with rudimentary training, operating in unmarked cars and using violence freely. This is not solely about immigration enforcement but about creating a force loyal to the administration that can be used for political intimidation, potentially suppressing voter turnout or public dissent.
Guest Anne Applebaum states, 'My argument is that it's not just about immigration, it's about intimidation. It's about creating a paramilitary that feels itself to be above the law... a force that was loyal to Donald Trump that could be used in political ways.' She cites examples of US citizens being arrested without reason and Hispanic families fearing their children walking to school.
2European Allies 'Hedging' Against US Hostility
European leaders are expressing deep anxiety and openly questioning the US's reliability as an ally. They are actively 'hedging' by exploring alternatives to US systems and holding behind-the-scenes conversations about responses to potential US aggression, such as a hypothetical invasion of Greenland, and the future of Ukraine support without US commitment.
Applebaum notes, 'The French president said a couple of days ago, 'America might not be our ally anymore.' You've heard the German chancellor say something similar... people are beginning to look for hedges.' She adds that conversations are happening about 'what do we do in the case of a US invasion of Greenland? Who responds and how?'
3Trump's 'Rapacious' Venezuela Policy Risks Backlash
The US approach to Venezuela under Trump is characterized by a 'rapacious, extortionate' focus on taking natural resources, particularly oil, for American benefit, with no mention of democracy or the desires of Venezuelans. This imperialistic stance, devoid of concern for the local population, risks significant internal pushback from armed groups and a broader backlash against the US as a 'brutal regional bully.'
The host states Trump talks about Venezuela as 'we're taking their oil.' Applebaum elaborates, 'He sounds not just like an imperialist... it's a kind of rapacious, extortionate... we're just there for the oil kind of enterprise.' She warns that a policy ignoring local desires will lead to people organizing against the US, thwarting it, or eventually using violence.
4Critique of the 'Spheres of Influence' Worldview
The idea of dividing the world into three spheres dominated by the US, Russia, and China is a Russian-originated concept that misrepresents global power dynamics and is a 'recipe for war.' This model ignores the agency of other nations and promotes a violent, dominance-based approach, undermining the post-WWII international system built on alliances, shared governance, and the rights of smaller countries.
Applebaum states the idea of three spheres is 'Russian' and makes Russia, a client state of China, seem more important. She argues, 'This way of seeing the world that it's about big powers having dominance is an absolute recipe for violence and warfare.'
5Russia's Unwillingness to End the War in Ukraine
Despite ongoing negotiations and discussions about security guarantees for Ukraine, Russia has never publicly expressed a desire to end the war or agree to a ceasefire. This indicates that Putin intends to continue the conflict, making any agreements presented to him by the US and Europe likely to be rejected.
Applebaum notes, 'The main problem with the negotiations, as far as I can see, is that the Russians have never said that they want to end the war. Not once. Putin has never said the war is over.'
6Hypersonic Missile Use as a Nuclear Threat
Russia's recent use of a hypersonic, nuclear-capable missile in Western Ukraine is interpreted as a direct threat, signaling 'next time I'll put warheads on it.' This action, justified by a fabricated Ukrainian attempt to bomb Putin's residence, demonstrates Russia's willingness to escalate and use lies to justify violence, potentially also driven by insecurity following events in Venezuela and Iran.
Applebaum explains, 'It's a way of saying next time I'll put warheads on it. I mean, that's what that's how it's interpreted.' She notes the fabricated rationale and suggests it might also be an expression of Putin's insecurity.
7New Dynamics in Iranian Protests
Current large-scale protests in Iran are significant due to their timing after Israeli strikes, which gave some Iranians hope for political change, and the notable role of the late Shah's son. His name is being chanted, and there is speculation he may have some support within parts of the regime for a transition, making these protests distinct from previous movements.
Applebaum highlights 'interesting role being played by the son of the late Shah... whose name is being chanted by some of the protesters and who is might even... have some support inside the regime.' She notes this is a 'theme to watch.'
Bottom Line
Despite the aggressive political rhetoric from the US administration, the US military and NATO militaries remain deeply integrated, and US intelligence continues to work closely with European intelligence services. This creates a 'Kafka-esque' surreality where political hostility coexists with operational cooperation.
This duality suggests that while political leadership may be actively undermining alliances, the institutional and operational layers of transatlantic cooperation retain significant resilience. However, this disconnect also creates uncertainty and anxiety among allies, who must navigate contradictory signals.
For policymakers, understanding this institutional resilience could be leveraged to maintain critical security functions even amidst political turbulence. For analysts, it highlights the complex, multi-layered nature of international relations beyond top-level political statements.
The condescending and factually incorrect US rhetoric towards allies like Denmark (regarding Greenland) is not just insulting but actively creates a 'fake world' based on lies, further eroding trust and making genuine cooperation impossible.
This approach alienates long-standing allies who have contributed significantly to US-led military actions. It undermines the credibility of US diplomatic efforts and makes it harder to build consensus or shared strategies on global challenges.
For nations targeted by such rhetoric, clearly and publicly refuting the factual inaccuracies can be a strategy to maintain their own dignity and expose the baselessness of the accusations, potentially garnering international sympathy and support.
Key Concepts
Hedging Strategy
European nations are adopting a 'hedging' strategy by actively seeking replacements for US systems and discussing alternative security plans. This is a risk management approach where an entity takes actions to mitigate potential negative outcomes from a primary relationship, in this case, the US alliance.
Spheres of Influence (Critique)
The podcast critiques the 'spheres of influence' model, where the world is divided into regions dominated by major powers (US, Russia, China). Applebaum argues this Russian-originated concept is a 'recipe for war' because it disregards the agency of smaller nations and promotes a zero-sum, dominance-based approach to international relations, rather than cooperation and shared governance.
Lessons
- Monitor the transformation of domestic security agencies like ICE for signs of mission creep and paramilitary tactics, as these indicate a shift towards authoritarian governance.
- Observe how European nations are 'hedging' against US foreign policy shifts, as their actions will reveal emerging geopolitical alignments and alternative power structures.
- Analyze US foreign policy statements for underlying motivations (e.g., resource extraction vs. democratic promotion), as these reveal true intent and potential for conflict or instability in regions like Latin America.
Notable Moments
Anne Applebaum recounts a horrific story of a US citizen Hispanic family in Washington D.C. whose teenage children were afraid to walk to school alone for fear of being picked up by ICE, despite being fully American citizens.
This anecdote powerfully illustrates the real-world impact of ICE's perceived overreach and intimidation tactics, demonstrating how fear of a domestic paramilitary force can alter daily life and erode fundamental freedoms even for citizens.
Quotes
"My argument is that it's not just about immigration, it's about intimidation. It's about creating a paramilitary that feels itself to be above the law."
"He sounds not just like an imperialist. I mean, he sounds like a kind of, I mean, you'd have to go back before, you know, before the British Empire. I mean, it's a kind of rapacious, extortionate... we're just there for the oil kind of enterprise."
"The French president said a couple of days ago, 'America might not be our ally anymore.' You've heard the German chancellor say something similar in the last, you know, in in recent days and weeks. He said it more than once, actually. So, people are beginning to look for hedges."
"This way of seeing the world that it's about big powers having dominance is an absolute recipe for violence and warfare."
"The main problem with the negotiations, as far as I can see, is that the Russians have never said that they want to end the war. Not once. Putin has never said the war is over."
Q&A
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