Col. Jacques Baud: Trump’s Final Move Just WIPED Israel's Plans Off the Map
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Israel's four attacks against Iran in two years have only convinced Iran of the need for a powerful deterrent.
- ❖The US and Israel undermined their own diplomatic efforts by initiating military action during ongoing negotiations.
- ❖Iran has the 'upper hand' in the current conflict, having achieved its objectives while the US and Israel have not.
- ❖European leaders, particularly Macron, exhibit a 'childish' and strategically incoherent foreign policy regarding regional deployments.
- ❖Western rhetoric and sanctions have inadvertently pushed China, Russia, and Iran into a stronger, more interconnected Eurasian bloc.
- ❖The West's foreign policy is characterized by tactical actions without strategic success, often driven by 'hate' rather than disagreement.
- ❖Israel's actions have severely damaged its global image and that of the US, leading to questioning of US support and increased anti-Zionism.
- ❖The distinction between anti-Semitism (hating Jews for what they are) and anti-Zionism (disagreeing with Israeli political actions) is being deliberately blurred, creating a new form of prejudice.
Insights
1US and Israeli Actions Undermined Diplomacy, Empowering Iran
Colonel Baud asserts that Israel's repeated attacks on Iran, coupled with the US withdrawal from the JCPOA and subsequent military actions during ongoing negotiations, have eroded Iran's trust in diplomacy. This has inadvertently convinced Iran that a powerful deterrent, such as advanced missiles and control over strategic choke points like the Strait of Hormuz, is essential for its self-preservation, rather than pursuing nuclear weapons it had previously renounced.
Israel's fourth attack against Iran in two years; US withdrawal from JCPOA; negotiations in January and February followed by US/Israeli war end of February. Iran's development of hypersonic missiles and management of the Strait of Hormuz as a deterrent.
2Europe's 'Childish' Foreign Policy Lacks Strategic Coherence
Baud criticizes European leaders, specifically referencing Macron's proposal to deploy French forces to Ukraine and an aircraft carrier to the Strait of Hormuz. He argues these actions are 'childish' and lack strategic purpose, as they are proposed for 'peacekeeping' after an agreement, yet involve parties already adversarial to Russia or Iran, making them unacceptable as neutral forces.
Macron's stated intention to deploy troops to Ukraine 'not for fighting' but 'in case there is an agreement' and similar rhetoric for the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier in the Indian Ocean/Red Sea.
3Western Rhetoric Fosters Adversary Alliance and Undermines Credibility
The West's aggressive rhetoric and sanctions against Iran, China, and Russia have not isolated them but instead pushed these powerful Eurasian actors closer together. This alliance, combining China's manufacturing, Russia's energy, and Iran's strategic Persian Gulf position, makes them resilient to Western pressure. The US's inconsistent diplomatic stance further diminishes its credibility as a reliable partner.
The host's observation that Russia and Iran see 'all these war as one war' and the New York Times report on the Caspian Sea trade route. Baud's point about China, Russia, and Iran reinforcing ties due to Western rhetoric and sanctions.
4Israel's Actions Severely Damaged Its Global Image and US Standing
Baud argues that Israel's constant aggression, massacres, and infringements of international humanitarian law, coupled with the US supporting these actions (as per Marco Rubio's statement), have drastically worsened the perception of both nations globally. This has led to questioning of US commitment in the Gulf, calls to suspend EU-Israel agreements, and a vanishing of post-WWII compassion for Jews, replaced by criticism based on Israeli actions.
International Court of Justice decision on illegal Israeli presence in Palestinian territories; Marco Rubio's statement that US attacked Iran at Israel's request; calls from EU countries like Spain to stop cooperation agreements with Israel.
5The Rise of 'Hate-Driven' Foreign Policy in the West
Baud observes a dangerous shift in Western foreign policy from disagreeing with systems to actively hating people (e.g., Muslims, Russians). He cites examples like the banning of Russian athletes, renaming paintings, and even debanking individuals based on Russian-sounding names. This 'hate-driven' approach, he argues, is a form of racism, blurring the lines between political opposition and inherent prejudice, and is being replicated in the context of Israel and anti-Semitism.
Megan Kelly's quote about being expected to hate Muslims to support Israel; examples of Russians being banned from sports, paintings renamed, and individuals debanked for Russian-sounding names in France.
Bottom Line
The long-term US military presence in Gulf countries is now being questioned by host nations, potentially leading to a significant reduction in US influence in the region, a direct opposite of Israel's historical objective.
This challenges a core tenet of Israeli security policy and could force a re-evaluation of US military posture and alliances in the Middle East, with profound implications for regional power dynamics.
Nations seeking to reduce foreign military footprints or diversify security partnerships may find increased leverage and opportunities to negotiate new terms with the US or other global powers.
The deliberate blurring of anti-Semitism and anti-Zionism in Western discourse, as seen in proposed laws and media narratives, is creating a new form of prejudice where criticism of Israeli state actions is equated with hatred of Jewish people, alienating many Jews who oppose Israeli policies.
This policy risks fostering genuine anti-Semitism by conflating it with legitimate political criticism, making it harder to combat actual racism while simultaneously isolating Jewish communities who disagree with Israeli government actions.
Advocacy groups and educators have an opportunity to re-establish clear definitions and promote critical thinking to differentiate between religious identity and political ideology, fostering more nuanced and productive discussions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and combating all forms of prejudice.
Key Concepts
Strategic vs. Tactical Thinking
The West's foreign policy is criticized for operating at a tactical level (e.g., destroying headquarters, killing officers) without a coherent strategic vision. This leads to a sum of small conflicts that do not achieve larger strategic objectives, often enhancing adversaries' resolve rather than weakening them. In contrast, Iran is seen as having a strategic approach, achieving goals without mass casualties.
The Deterrence Dilemma
When diplomatic solutions are repeatedly undermined or treaties are unilaterally abandoned (like the JCPOA by the US), a nation (Iran) is left with no option but to develop a powerful military deterrent for self-preservation. This creates a cycle where perceived aggression leads to increased armament, making future diplomacy even harder.
Lessons
- Critically evaluate media narratives, especially those that promote 'hate' towards entire groups of people rather than focusing on specific policies or actions.
- Recognize that diplomatic failures and unilateral withdrawals from international agreements can inadvertently strengthen adversaries and lead to prolonged conflicts.
- Understand the strategic implications of geopolitical alliances, noting how Western actions can inadvertently push non-Western powers into closer cooperation.
Notable Moments
Discussion of Macron's 'childish' foreign policy regarding deploying forces for 'peacekeeping' in Ukraine and the Strait of Hormuz, despite France being a party to the conflict.
Highlights a perceived lack of strategic depth and realism in European diplomacy, suggesting that such actions are more about posturing than effective conflict resolution.
The host plays a clip of Tucker Carlson and Megan Kelly discussing how the 'Israel first crowd' demands hatred of Muslims, causing them to re-evaluate past propaganda.
This moment serves as concrete evidence of a shifting perception within influential US media figures, indicating a growing awareness and rejection of 'hate-driven' foreign policy and propaganda from foreign governments.
Quotes
"The only accomplishment I can see from this war is to convince the Iranians that they need a powerful deterrent. That's what they have done."
"The only country in the Middle East that has consistently attacked its neighbors since the late 40s is Israel."
"The Russians and the Iranians don't want a ceasefire. They want a solution. The ceasefire is a temporary measure and that's not what the Iranians want. They want a permanent solution."
"If you look at it from a Israeli perspective, what did Israel gain? Nothing. They even failed to have the US permanently engage in the region."
"People start to hate the Jews not because what they are but because what they do."
"The whole propaganda is about hating those people. It's not just about making I mean you can argue whether the strategy of Hamas was good or bad but it's not the point. It's not about whether they had a good strategy or not. The point is that you have to hate them."
Q&A
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