Amb. Chas Freeman: Israel’s Strategy Just COLLAPSED – Trump Steps In
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Israel's strategy in the Middle East has collapsed, failing to achieve any stated objectives and leading to its diplomatic isolation.
- ❖Donald Trump's declared 'ceasefire' and 'victory' are described as 'rambling, incoherent, delusional' and a 'fantasy foreign policy exercise' aimed at manipulating public opinion for a political exit.
- ❖The US military presence in the region and its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are deemed ineffective and illegal, with Iran continuing oil exports and asserting control over the strait.
- ❖Both US and Israeli military effectiveness and morale are reportedly decaying, with declining retention rates and reserve responses.
- ❖Iran successfully employed a 'rope-a-dope' strategy, depleting adversaries' defenses before demonstrating its ability to strike targets across Israel.
- ❖The conflict accelerates a global trend where middle-ranking countries, exemplified by Spain, are pursuing independent foreign policies, moving away from US tutelage.
- ❖International law is increasingly disregarded by major powers, contributing to a 'strange world' where verifiable facts are scarce and diplomacy is gutted.
Insights
1Israel's Strategic Collapse and Diplomatic Isolation
Israel's military campaign has failed to achieve its stated objectives against Hamas, Hezbollah, or Iran. Instead, it has led to the diplomatic isolation of Israel, which has lost its veto power in the European Union following Victor Orban's retirement. The war has also taken a significant toll on Israeli military morale and commitment, with reserve response rates reportedly dropping to 40-50%.
Ambassador Freeman states, 'Not a single stated objective of either Israel or the United States has been achieved so far. No victory.' () He notes Israel 'just lost its main... veto in the European Union through Victor Orban.' () and 'the loss of morale and moral commitment by Israelis to their army. When they call the reserves up now they get 40 50% response.' ()
2Trump's 'Fantasy' Peace Efforts and Political Exit Strategy
Donald Trump's announcements of a ceasefire and claims of victory are characterized as 'rambling, incoherent, delusional' and a 'fantasy foreign policy exercise.' These actions are seen as a political maneuver to create the appearance of a peace process, allowing Trump to claim success and 'gracefully exit' a war that has proven costly and damaging to US global standing, without any genuine agreement on terms.
Freeman describes Trump's statements as 'rambling, incoherent, uh delusional.' () and 'imaginary peace talks are just as good at fooling the stock market and the American public as real talks.' () He concludes, 'Donald Trump has a problem. He's claimed victory. If we were victorious, why do we have to restart the fighting?' ()
3The Failure of US Dual Containment and Weakening Influence
The US 'dual containment' policy, imposed in 1993 to balance Iran and Iraq, led to a massive US military presence in the Gulf but ultimately failed to serve Gulf Arab interests and contained the 'seeds of disaster.' The current conflict further demonstrates the US's inability and unwillingness to defend its Gulf allies, forcing them to re-evaluate their geopolitical positions and engage directly with Iran.
Freeman explains the 'dual containment' policy imposed by Martin Indyk () and states, 'it doesn't serve it has never served the interests of the Gulf Arabs.' () He adds, 'The United States has now convincingly demonstrated to them that it doesn't care very much about them. uh that is not able to defend them.' ()
4Iran's Strategic Resilience and Nuclear Ambition
Iran successfully employed a 'Muhammad Ali rope-a-dope strategy,' absorbing initial attacks from the US and Israel, depleting their defenses with older weaponry. Subsequently, Iran demonstrated its capability to strike any target in Israel with more advanced hypersonic missiles. This experience has likely convinced Iran that its long-term safety lies in developing a nuclear deterrent, following a path similar to North Korea.
Freeman states, 'It was the Muhammad Ali rope a do strategy. I'm going to let Israel expend all and the United States shoot everything they have at me and when they run out, I will then attack them.' () He predicts, 'Iran now has been convinced, I am sure, that its safety lies in having a nuclear deterrent. So, it will reach the same conclusion that North Korea did and follow the North Korean path.' ()
5Global Shift Towards Independent Foreign Policies and Disregard for International Law
The conflict accelerates a global trend where middle-ranking countries are breaking away from the tutelage of foreign patrons and charting independent foreign policies. Spain is cited as a prime example, prioritizing its own interests, distancing itself from NATO's belligerent policies, and building relationships with China and Russia. This shift contributes to a world where international law is increasingly ignored by major powers, leading to a less predictable and verifiable global environment.
Freeman notes, 'Spain is obviously doing what a country should do. Looking out for its own interests first, America first, Hispa Pimea, Spain first.' () He observes, 'international law is dead. Nobody is paying much attention to it.' () and 'the United States ignores it. Uh, and Israel never paid any attention to it.' ()
Bottom Line
The US Navy's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is an 'act of piracy' that has failed to stop Iranian oil exports and has inadvertently granted Iran de facto sovereignty over the international waterway.
This sets a dangerous precedent for global maritime trade, potentially encouraging other nations (e.g., China in Taiwan Strait, Malaysia/Indonesia in Malacca) to assert control over critical international straits, disrupting freedom of navigation and global commerce.
An international conference is needed to establish a new legal framework for the Strait of Hormuz, recognizing Iran's managerial role under agreed rules, similar to the Dardanelles Treaty, to ensure global shipping security.
The war has caused a significant decay in military effectiveness and morale within both the Israeli and US armed forces, with declining retention rates and a reluctance among soldiers to fight 'a war on behalf of Israel.'
This internal erosion of military strength could severely limit the future capacity of both nations to project power and engage in prolonged conflicts, impacting their strategic calculus and global standing.
For military strategists, this highlights the critical importance of public support and perceived moral legitimacy in sustaining military readiness and effectiveness, beyond just technological superiority.
The Lebanese government, lacking legitimacy and effective authority (which rests with Hezbollah), is attempting to use Israel to destroy Hezbollah and reestablish its own power, essentially trading Iranian influence for Israeli hegemony.
This 'fantasy foreign policy exercise' by the Trump administration risks exacerbating civil conflict in Lebanon and further destabilizing the region, rather than achieving any genuine peace or security.
Understanding these internal power dynamics is crucial for any external actor seeking to mediate or intervene in Lebanon, as supporting the nominal government without addressing its legitimacy deficit is counterproductive.
Key Concepts
Muhammad Ali Rope-a-Dope Strategy
A military strategy where one side allows the opponent to expend all their resources and firepower, absorbing punishment, until the opponent is exhausted. Once the adversary's defenses are depleted, the first side then launches its decisive counter-attack. Iran is described as using this strategy against the US and Israel.
Nodes vs. Poles (Geopolitics)
A framework for understanding the global order, where 'poles' represent dominant, centralized powers, and 'nodes' represent three-dimensional entities (countries or blocs) with multi-dimensional relationships (political, military, economic) that can vary in strength and change over time. This model suggests a more complex, networked world rather than a simple unipolar or multipolar system, emphasizing interconnectedness and shifting alliances.
Lessons
- Re-evaluate geopolitical risk assessments, recognizing the diminishing reliability of traditional alliances and the rise of independent, self-interested national foreign policies.
- Monitor the Strait of Hormuz and other critical maritime chokepoints for increased assertiveness by littoral states, and consider diversified shipping routes or supply chain resilience strategies.
- Analyze the long-term implications of declining military morale and effectiveness in major powers, as this could shift global power balances and the nature of future conflicts.
Notable Moments
Ambassador Freeman describes Donald Trump's public statements on the conflict as 'rambling, incoherent, delusional,' and highlights increasing demands for invoking the 25th Amendment to remove him from office due to unfitness.
This moment underscores a severe critique of US leadership's perceived detachment from reality, suggesting a profound crisis of governance and decision-making at the highest levels during a critical international conflict.
The host reveals that Iran has exported over 11 million barrels of oil since the 'ceasefire' began, unchallenged by the US, despite the declared blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
This exposes the ineffectiveness and performative nature of the US blockade, suggesting it's more about 'manipulation of perceptions' than actual enforcement, and highlights Iran's continued economic resilience amidst conflict.
Freeman asserts that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's objective is to annex Southern Lebanon and that he is determined to prolong the war to avoid imprisonment.
This provides a cynical, yet plausible, motivation for Israel's continued military actions, suggesting that personal political survival rather than strategic national interest may be driving key decisions in the conflict.
Quotes
"It's rambling, incoherent, uh delusional. Um and um it's more and more apparent that President Trump has lost touch with reality."
"I thought the purpose of war was to make an adjustment in relations or policies on the part of the enemy. In other words, to break the will of the enemy and to uh have the enemy do what you want. But not a single stated objective of either Israel or the United States has been achieved so far."
"Imaginary minds are just as good at scaring insurance companies as real ones. and imaginary peace talks are just as good at fooling the stock market and the American public uh as real talks."
"The United States has now convincingly demonstrated to them that it doesn't care very much about them. uh that is not able to defend them and certainly not willing to make the effort really to do so."
"Iran hasn't committed genocide. It hasn't committed mass murder. It has shot some protesters. Yes. Not 45,000 or 30,000 or 20,000 or 7,000 or whatever the number of the day is because these numbers are all made up. Um Iran I'm I I'm not a fan of the Iranian government at all. But um the the the statement that uh it is the champion of terrorism is absurd. Israel is the world champion."
"On both sides in Israel and in the United States there is a collapse of military effectiveness. Of course technology training counter count for a great deal in a military. Israel is not very good on the ground evidently keeps getting bit and beaten whenever it goes up against Hezbollah. Um uh and um the United States is very good on the ground has been. But I think um I think just you know morale counts for a great deal in warfare and the morale of both the United States and Israel is way down."
"Iran now has been convinced, I am sure, that its safety lies in having a nuclear deterrent. So, it will reach the same conclusion that North Korea did and follow the North Korean path. Now, that is a disaster."
"International law is dead. Nobody is paying much attention to it. people defend it if they're if they're Chinese, they defend it, but they don't do anything to enforce it. Uh, and um, the United States ignores it. Uh, and Israel never paid any attention to it."
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