Amb. Chas Freeman: The Collapse Of Israel’s Agenda
YouTube · 7APwlAtHjLA
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖US-Iran negotiations are stalled, with Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz and its enriched uranium, dictating terms due to US domestic political pressures.
- ❖Israel's military aggression in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza is increasingly viewed as illegal and unsustainable, even by some US politicians.
- ❖US rhetoric, exemplified by JD Vance, now acknowledges the right of self-defense for nations under military occupation, a significant shift away from unconditional support for Israel.
- ❖A new regional security coalition comprising Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan is forming, aiming to create a regional security strategy independent of the US.
- ❖US military bases in the Persian Gulf were severely damaged during the war, leading to considerations of withdrawal or relocation, potentially to Israel, which is seen as ironic and impractical.
- ❖Israel's long-term survival is questioned without a genuine effort to make peace with its neighbors, as its purely military approach has failed to provide security.
- ❖US domestic politics are experiencing a 'sea change,' with growing anti-Zionist sentiment influencing elections and challenging traditional pro-Israel stances across both major parties.
Insights
1Iran's Dominant Position in US Negotiations
Iran is dictating terms in negotiations with the US, primarily regarding the Strait of Hormuz and its oil trade. The US objective has been reduced to opening the Strait, but Iran successfully demonstrated its control. Iran refuses to denominate oil trade in US dollars and has not agreed to full IAEA inspections, leveraging its strong position and the US's need for a deal to avoid domestic political humiliation for the Trump administration.
Iran successfully countered an IMO attempt to open a route through the Strait of Hormuz, making it clear it controls the Strait. The US Treasury Secretary's demand for dollar-denominated oil trade was a new condition Iran will reject, providing Iran more leverage. Iran has not agreed to inspectors as claimed by US officials.
2Shifting US Stance on Israel and Right to Self-Defense
There is a notable shift in US rhetoric, particularly from figures like JD Vance, who now speak about the right of self-defense for *all* countries in the region. This departs from the traditional US line of only affirming Israel's right to self-defense, implicitly recognizing the right of Palestinians and Lebanese to resist Israeli occupation and aggression.
JD Vance's repeated statements on the right of self-defense for each country in the region are seen as a 'big step away from Israel.' Ambassador Freeman clarifies that international law grants people under military occupation the right to resist with force, applying this to Palestinians, Lebanese, and Syrians against Israeli aggression.
3Israel's Declining Regional Standing and US Support
Israel is facing unprecedented regional and international isolation, with its long-standing military-first agenda proving unsustainable. US support is diminishing, forcing Israel to confront a choice between pursuing peace or facing destruction. Its actions are alienating traditional allies and fueling anti-Zionist sentiment globally and within the US.
Israel openly states it will not withdraw from Lebanon or Syria, directly challenging US-Iran agreements. The US has cut off some support for Israel, and there's talk of withdrawing US bases from the Gulf, potentially moving them to Israel, which is seen as increasing risk. An Israeli minister's statement about full control over Gaza and refusal to leave Lebanon despite US pressure highlights this defiance and isolation. Ambassador Freeman states, 'Israel cannot continue to exist without an effort to make peace with its neighbors' and 'Israel is now at the end of coming to the end of the road.'
4Emergence of a New Regional Security Coalition
A significant four-party coalition comprising Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan is forming to develop a regional security strategy. This coalition aims to reduce dependence on foreign powers, integrate industrial capabilities (e.g., jet fighter production), and address regional instability, primarily stemming from Israeli aggression.
A meeting in Cairo brought together Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt to discuss reshaping the region's security structure. Egypt has joined Turkey's project to produce a fifth-generation jet fighter, integrating industrial capabilities to reduce reliance on foreign weapon suppliers. This coalition is seen as a potential rival or partner for Iran in regional management.
5US Domestic Political Shift Against Unconditional Israel Support
American politics are undergoing a 'sea change,' with a growing anti-Zionist movement impacting both Republican and Democratic parties. This shift is catalyzed by the suffering of Palestinians and the perceived cruelty of Israeli actions, leading to a reevaluation of unconditional support for Israel.
JD Vance's stance on Israel, while potentially politically motivated, reflects a segment of the MAGA movement advocating restraint. Recent primary elections demonstrate a strong anti-Zionist movement in the US. The Democratic party also experienced losses due to its support for Israel, as seen with Kamala Harris. Tucker Carlson's repudiation of the Republican party under Trump, not being attracted to Democrats, and the general loss of confidence in US political institutions, all point to this broader shift.
Bottom Line
The US is considering withdrawing its military bases from the Persian Gulf due to severe damage sustained during the war, with ironic discussions about relocating them to Israel.
This signifies a potential major reduction in US military footprint in the Gulf, creating a power vacuum or forcing regional actors to take greater responsibility for their own security. Relocating to Israel would increase, not decrease, the risk of Iranian strikes on American assets.
Regional powers like the new Saudi-Egypt-Turkey-Pakistan coalition could accelerate their efforts to establish independent security frameworks and reduce reliance on external military presence, potentially fostering new defense industry partnerships.
Israel's insistence on 'absolute security for itself' inherently creates 'absolute insecurity for everyone else,' a policy that has consistently failed to provide actual security.
This fundamental flaw in Israel's strategic thinking is driving its isolation and fueling perpetual conflict, making long-term peace impossible without a radical shift in approach. It underscores why military solutions alone are self-defeating.
For regional diplomatic efforts, framing security as a shared rather than exclusive concept could unlock new pathways for dialogue and cooperation, potentially involving Iran and the emerging regional coalition.
Lessons
- Monitor the development of the Egypt-Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan coalition as a new, independent regional security bloc, and assess its potential impact on existing alliances and power structures.
- Evaluate the implications of Iran's continued control over the Strait of Hormuz and its de-dollarization efforts on global oil markets and international trade, considering alternative payment mechanisms and supply chain resilience.
- Observe shifts in US domestic political discourse regarding Israel, particularly the growing anti-Zionist sentiment, to anticipate potential changes in US foreign policy and military aid to the region.
Notable Moments
The host mentions an alleged Israeli plot to eliminate an Iranian foreign minister in Switzerland, and a suspicious explosion in Qatar, both occurring during sensitive US-Iran negotiations.
These incidents highlight the extreme tensions and covert actions occurring alongside diplomatic efforts, underscoring the fragility of any peace process and the role of non-state or third-party actors in escalating conflict.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's injudicious statement about 4,000-5,000 European-based flights used to attack Iran.
This statement inadvertently revealed to Europeans that US bases on their soil are used for power projection against West Asia, not primarily for European defense, potentially fueling anti-American sentiment and calls for base withdrawals in Europe.
Quotes
"Iran controls the strait and that the UN United Nations the IMO is part of the UN uh does not have the ability to work with the United States or foreign powers to um uh to avoid the Iranian control of the strait."
"Israel has a right to defend itself. But Israel is not defending itself. that's committing aggression against other people both in Gaza and in the West Bank and and in Lebanon."
"Israel cannot continue to exist without an effort to make peace with its neighbors, that's going to be very difficult because... Israel's neighbors have absolutely no trust whatsoever in it because it has repeatedly violated every agreement that it has apparently made."
"Israel's insistence on absolute security for itself means absolute insecurity for everyone else, which is not acceptable."
"Israel is now at the end of coming to the end of the road. Uh, and as I said, it's going to have to choose either between making peace with those it must live amongst in the middle Middle East in West Asia uh or see it see itself destroyed."
"Anti-semitism is more uh more is a result of Israeli behavior uh not a driver of foreign opinion on its own."
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