John Kiriakou: CIA Hit in Iran’s Retaliation Strike — Breakdown of WAR
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The attack on an Iranian girls' school was likely a deliberate US/Israeli act to traumatize the population, not an Iranian self-inflicted wound.
- ❖Donald Trump's belief that Iran would collapse post-strike was a severe miscalculation, failing to understand Iranian resilience.
- ❖Iran's counter-offensive relies on cheap, effective suicide drones targeting US military bases and critical oil infrastructure in the Gulf.
- ❖For Iran, winning means simply surviving the conflict, while the US and Israel require a complete overthrow of the Iranian government, which is deemed virtually impossible.
- ❖The massive US military presence in the Persian Gulf has proven ineffective against low-cost drone attacks, forcing a re-evaluation of its value.
- ❖US foreign policy, particularly towards Israel, is heavily swayed by wealthy pro-Israel donors, effectively 'occupying' American politics.
- ❖The US defense budget is unsustainable, exceeding the next nine largest countries combined, while domestic infrastructure crumbles.
- ❖Iran's leadership views the US as an unreliable negotiating partner and aims to disrupt the global economy by potentially closing the Strait of Hormuz.
- ❖There is a possibility of Israel using nuclear weapons if an Iranian military victory becomes clear or if Israel faces a genuine military threat.
- ❖Assassinating Iran's Supreme Leader was a strategic failure, as the system is designed for succession, not collapse.
Insights
1Deliberate Civilian Targeting in Iran
The attack on a girls' elementary school in Iran, initially blamed on Iran by Donald Trump, is strongly suggested by John Kiriakou to have been a deliberate act by the US or Israel. He posits the goal was to traumatize the Iranian population and break their will to fight, based on a flawed assumption that the government would then collapse.
Host Nema presents footage of a Tomahawk missile hitting the school. Kiriakou states, 'My brain wants me to believe that either we did this on purpose or the Israelis did it on purpose. It's to traumatize the Iranian people to take the fight right out of them.'
2Iran's Effective Asymmetric Drone Strategy
Despite being outgunned by the US and Israel, Iran has developed a sophisticated counter-strategy utilizing cheap, plentiful, and reliable suicide drones. These drones, costing $5,000-$10,000, are guided into sensitive targets like US military bases (e.g., outside Doha, Fifth Fleet HQ in Manama, Kuwait army base) and Saudi oil facilities, rather than expensive, less accurate rockets.
Kiriakou explains, 'They don't have the sophisticated technology... but they have these cheap, plentiful, reliable suicide drones... You can build one of these for 5 or 6 thousand. $10,000 for a really good one... they've guided these drones into more sensitive targets. US military bases, US Air Force base outside of Doha, the headquarters of the fifth fleet in Manama, the US uh army base in in uh Kuwait, and most importantly, oil facilities in the eastern province of Saudi Arabia.'
3Defining Victory: Survival vs. Regime Change
The definition of victory differs fundamentally for the belligerents. For the US and Israel, victory requires completely toppling the Iranian government and installing a pro-Western regime, which Kiriakou deems 'virtually impossible.' For Iran, victory is simply surviving the conflict.
Kiriakou states, 'For the United States and Israel to to win, they have to completely topple the Iranian government... That is virtually impossible. Number one. But number two, for the Iranians to win, all they have to do is survive. That's it. If they can just survive this, they win. Israel and the United States lose.'
4Unsustainable US Defense Spending and Domestic Decay
The US defense budget, now at $1 trillion, is larger than the next nine largest countries combined. This massive expenditure comes at the cost of severe domestic underinvestment, leading to third-world level airports, outdated hospitals, and crumbling infrastructure, contrasting sharply with advancements in countries like China.
Kiriakou highlights, 'The US defense budget is untenable... It is bigger than the next now nine countries nine largest countries combined. And in the meantime, here in the United States, we have third world level airports. Our hospitals are outdated. Our roads are in terrible condition. Our bridges are falling into the rivers below them.'
5Influence of Pro-Israel Money on US Politics
Wealthy Jewish American donors exert significant financial control over US elections, compelling candidates to adopt an 'unquestioning down the line 100% Zionist' stance. This influence, exemplified by figures like Miriam Adelson and the late Sheldon Adelson, dictates US policy towards Israel, including major decisions like moving the embassy to Jerusalem.
Kiriakou asserts, 'Jewish Americans have such a financial hold over American elections that if you want to run for office in this country, you have to be not just Zionist, but you have to be an unquestioning down the line 100% Zionist.' He cites 'hundreds of millions of dollars from Miriam Aden, for example, and Sheldon Adlesen before her' and Adelson's role in moving the embassy.
6Trump's Reliance on Mossad Intelligence
Donald Trump's intelligence on Iran, particularly the belief that the government would collapse after the Supreme Leader's assassination, did not originate from the CIA, which possesses a deep understanding of Iran. Instead, Trump likely received intelligence directly from Mossad, influenced by frequent visits from Benjamin Netanyahu.
Kiriakou states, 'I'm confident that Donald Trump's position that Iran would fall apart did not come from the CIA.' He then adds, '100% yes he was receiving intelligence from Mossad. Yes. I don't think it was any kind of accident that Netanyahu came here seven times in 11 months.'
Bottom Line
Israel's strategic objective is to foster chaos in enemy states, believing that destabilization benefits its security by diverting the population's focus from external threats.
This suggests that Israeli actions, including potential nuclear strikes, might not aim for outright victory or peace, but rather for prolonged internal conflict within adversaries like Iran or Lebanon, ensuring they remain preoccupied and unable to pose a unified threat.
For regional actors, understanding this 'chaos strategy' could inform counter-strategies focused on internal stability and resilience, rather than solely military defense, to deny Israel its desired outcome.
The US military's inability to defend its own bases and allied infrastructure in the Persian Gulf against inexpensive drone attacks fundamentally undermines the value proposition of its presence to host nations.
This fragility could lead Gulf Arab states to reassess their alliances, potentially seeking alternative security partners or developing independent defense capabilities, thereby altering regional power dynamics and US influence.
Nations capable of developing effective, low-cost anti-drone technologies could find significant demand in the Middle East, offering a new market for defense innovation that addresses current US military blind spots.
Key Concepts
War of Attrition
A prolonged conflict where each side attempts to wear down the other through continuous losses of personnel and materiel. Iran's strategy of survival against a technologically superior adversary aligns with this, aiming to outlast the West's political will and resources.
Imperial Overstretch
The idea that an empire can extend itself beyond its ability to maintain or expand its military and economic commitments. The discussion on the unsustainable US defense budget, crumbling domestic infrastructure, and ineffective military presence in the Gulf points to the US potentially suffering from imperial overstretch.
Asymmetric Warfare
Warfare between belligerents whose relative military power differs significantly. Iran's use of cheap, plentiful suicide drones against the sophisticated, expensive military assets of the US and Israel exemplifies asymmetric warfare, where a weaker power leverages unconventional tactics to counter a stronger foe.
Lessons
- Re-evaluate the effectiveness of traditional military deterrence and expensive hardware against modern, asymmetric threats like suicide drones.
- Address the unsustainable US defense budget by reallocating funds to critical domestic infrastructure and social programs to prevent internal decay.
- Scrutinize the influence of foreign lobbying and financial contributions on national security policy to ensure decisions align with broader national interests, not just specific donor agendas.
Notable Moments
Discussion of the attack on an Iranian girls' elementary school and Donald Trump's denial of US involvement, with Kiriakou suggesting deliberate US/Israeli targeting.
This moment sets the tone for the episode, highlighting a controversial event and immediately challenging official narratives, framing the conflict with a critical lens on US/Israeli actions.
Kiriakou's explanation of Iran's sophisticated drone strategy against US bases and Saudi oil facilities.
This details a key aspect of modern asymmetric warfare, demonstrating how a less technologically advanced nation can effectively counter a superpower, and revealing a vulnerability in US defense strategy.
The host's observation that Gulf Arab states, despite huge defense budgets, are vulnerable and seeking help from Russia, and Kiriakou's agreement on US military's inability to protect its own bases.
This highlights a significant shift in regional perceptions of US military reliability and could foreshadow a reordering of alliances and security architectures in the Middle East.
Kiriakou's assertion that US politics are 'practically occupied' due to the financial influence of wealthy pro-Israel donors.
This is a strong, controversial claim that directly links domestic political funding to specific foreign policy outcomes, suggesting a fundamental compromise of national sovereignty in certain areas.
Quotes
"My brain wants me to believe that either we did this on purpose or the Israelis did it on purpose. Uh it's to traumatize the Iranian people to take the fight right out of them."
"For the United States and Israel to to win, they have to completely topple the Iranian government... But for the Iranians to win, all they have to do is survive. That's it. If they can just survive this, they win. Israel and the United States lose."
"If you've got the world's largest air force base for the Americans... and then the Americans can't stop a $5,000 drone from crashing into your luxury hotel or into their own bases... the US can't even protect itself."
"We're only a few years away from the interest payments on the national debt being being the number one biggest expenditure in in government. We can't keep doing this. We don't have the money. We've mortgaged future generations and for what? We have nothing to show for it."
"I think what it is is that Jewish Americans have such a financial hold over American elections that if you want to run for office in this country, you have to be not just Zionist, but you have to be an unquestioning down the line 100% Zionist."
"I think that their calculation is if they can turn Iran into into Libya, that's to their benefit because then the Iranian people are going to be fighting each other or they're going to be more worried about where to find food or water or medical care than they're going to be about fighting Israel. So chaos is to Israel's benefit."
"If you kill the pope, you're not going to bring down global Catholicism. They just choose a new pope. Well, if you kill the Supreme Leader, they just choose a new Supreme Leader."
Q&A
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