China SALIVATES Over Taiwan After Maduro Kidnapping
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖China views the US's actions in Venezuela as a green light for great powers to use force in their spheres of influence.
- ❖China is studying the Venezuela operation for lessons on how to manage international relations if it were to act on Taiwan.
- ❖The US's interest in Taiwan is primarily driven by its semiconductor industry (TSMC), not democratic ideals.
- ❖US sanctions on Venezuela inadvertently strengthened its ties with Russia, Iran, and China, creating the conditions the US now opposes.
- ❖China has developed sanction-proof financial systems, making it less vulnerable to US economic pressure.
- ❖The US's global overextension and perceived instability are pushing cautious China towards more assertive, hard power strategies.
Insights
1US Actions in Venezuela Affirm Spheres of Influence for China
The US's 'extraordinary rendition' of Nicolás Maduro is interpreted by China as an explicit embrace of the 'spheres of influence' doctrine. Beijing views this as a precedent, suggesting that if the US can act ruthlessly in its perceived backyard, China can do the same in its own, particularly regarding Taiwan and the South China Sea.
The hosts state, "If you're China again, and you're watching this explicit embrace of spheres of influence, then yeah." () and refer to a Washington Post report: "China studying US strike for lessons and opportunities." ()
2Taiwan's Value to the US is Primarily Economic, Not Ideological
The hosts argue that the US's primary interest in defending Taiwan is its advanced semiconductor manufacturing capabilities (TSMC), not its democratic status. They contend that if Taiwan were a military dictatorship with TSMC, the US would still prioritize its defense.
Saagar states, "Nobody cares if China takes over Taiwan because of international law. We care about the chips. That's it, okay?" () and "I don't care if Taiwan is a democracy or not." ()
3US Sanctions Policy in Venezuela Backfired, Strengthening Adversary Ties
The hosts assert that aggressive US sanctions against Venezuela, intended to destabilize the Maduro regime, instead led to increased misery for Venezuelans and tightened relationships between Venezuela and US adversaries like Russia, Iran, and China. These countries stepped in to purchase heavily discounted oil, creating the very alliances the US sought to prevent.
Ryan explains, "Trump deeply ramped up the sanctions, which produced... tightening relationships between Venezuela and Russia, Iran, and China because those countries can then come in and get basically heavily discounted oil." ()
4China's Strategic Shift Due to US Instability and Overextension
China, traditionally cautious and preferring to grow within the status quo, is being forced to reconsider its approach due to the US's erratic foreign policy and global overextension. Beijing is studying US actions and building alternative systems (like sanction-proof financial infrastructure), making it more likely to adopt a US-style hard power projection in its own region.
Ryan notes, "if the US appears to be erratic and unstable then they can't bank on the status quo." () Saagar adds, "China has been studying these Russian sanctions now for four years and has explicitly created all of these alternate financial systems to make sure that they are sanction proof from the US economy." ()
Bottom Line
China's internal debate on Taiwan annexation reveals a more calculated approach than simple imitation of US actions.
While some Chinese influencers advocate immediate action on Taiwan, smarter strategists recognize that a full annexation would entail replacing the entire Taiwanese government and security apparatus, a more comprehensive takeover than the US's partial intervention in Venezuela. This suggests China's planning for Taiwan is more thorough and less about merely removing a leader.
Understanding this nuanced Chinese perspective could inform more effective deterrence or diplomatic strategies, moving beyond assumptions of direct mirroring of US tactics.
US foreign policy is creating a 'strategic logic' for China to increase militarization, mirroring the Soviet Union's post-WWII shift.
The hosts draw a parallel between China's current situation and the Soviet Union in the 1950s, where witnessing US bullying of allied regimes in the 'outer empire' led the Soviets to 'go all in on militarization.' This suggests US actions are inadvertently pushing China towards a more aggressive military posture, believing soft power is insufficient.
Policymakers should consider the long-term historical precedents of great power competition and how current actions might inadvertently accelerate an arms race or militaristic shifts in rivals.
Key Concepts
Spheres of Influence
The concept that great powers have exclusive or predominant influence over a region or territory, and other powers should respect these boundaries. The hosts argue the US explicitly affirmed this doctrine in Venezuela, which China is now applying to its own region, particularly Taiwan.
Hypocrisy in International Relations
The practice of a nation advocating for international norms (e.g., sovereignty, rule of law) while simultaneously violating them when it suits its strategic interests. The hosts highlight how China and Russia frequently point to US actions (like Iraq, Libya, Venezuela) to discredit US moral authority.
Lessons
- Re-evaluate US foreign policy interventions, considering how they are perceived and potentially leveraged by rival powers like China to justify their own actions.
- Prioritize de-escalation and diplomatic solutions in regions like Latin America to avoid creating precedents that adversaries can exploit in critical areas like the Taiwan Strait.
- Invest in understanding China's strategic calculus, including its internal debates and historical interpretations of international relations, to anticipate its moves more accurately.
Notable Moments
Delcy Rodríguez, the 'pro-American' interim president of Venezuela, openly embraced the Chinese, Russian, and Iranian ambassadors after swearing in.
This public display immediately after a US-backed transition signaled that the new Venezuelan regime would not sever ties with US adversaries, undermining the perceived success of the US intervention and highlighting the limits of US influence.
Quotes
"If you're China again, and you're watching this explicit embrace of spheres of influence, then yeah."
"Nobody cares if China takes over Taiwan because of international law. We care about the chips. That's it, okay?"
"The Chinese are looking at this with, 'Oh, okay. So we get to do this type of stuff in our own backyard and you can't say anything about it.'"
"China always respects the sovereignty and the internal politics of the country that they're doing business with. They don't come in and complain about human rights violations."
Q&A
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