Larry Johnson & Col. Wilkerson: Iran Just Fired at U.S.-Guided Ships: Trump REVEALS Final Decision
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖A 14-point US-Iran memorandum of understanding was reported by Iranian media, outlining a permanent ceasefire, US non-interference, withdrawal of US forces, and lifting of oil sanctions.
- ❖Larry Johnson views the proposed deal as an 'astonishing declaration of surrender by the United States,' unlikely to be signed by Trump due to Zionist pressure.
- ❖Colonel Wilkerson emphasizes that Israel's continued actions in Lebanon and against Palestinians make a genuine ceasefire impossible from Iran's perspective.
- ❖The economic repercussions of a closed Strait of Hormuz, including major fuel disruption and dramatic price hikes, are a significant pressure point for the Trump administration.
- ❖Israel is actively pressuring the US not to release $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets, a key component of the reported deal.
- ❖Donald Trump's tweet during the podcast denied the terms leaked by Iran, calling them 'fake news' and 'dishonorable people to deal with,' effectively debunking the reported deal.
- ❖The analysts suggest the US's role as an 'enabler' of Israeli actions is the primary obstacle to Middle East peace.
- ❖Concerns were raised about the potential for Israel to use nuclear weapons, particularly by hardline figures like Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, as an 'insurance policy' in existential scenarios.
Insights
1Proposed US-Iran Deal: A Political Non-Starter for Trump
Iranian media reported a 14-point memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, including a permanent ceasefire, US non-interference in Iranian affairs, withdrawal of US forces from around Iran, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, and suspension of US sanctions on Iranian oil. Larry Johnson characterized these terms as an 'astonishing declaration of surrender by the United States,' predicting that President Trump would find it politically impossible to sign due to immense pressure from Zionist elements. Colonel Wilkerson echoed this, stating that Netanyahu's political troubles and ongoing actions in Lebanon make a comprehensive ceasefire unfeasible.
Larry Johnson: "If that holds, I mean that that'll be astonishing. Because it will be essentially a declaration of surrender by the United States." [] Colonel Wilkerson: "I don't see how you square it with Bibi." []
2Economic Pressure as a Driver for US Engagement, Despite Political Hurdles
The economic consequences of instability in the Strait of Hormuz, including potential 'major fuel disruption' and 'dramatic price hikes,' are a significant concern for the US administration. Colonel Wilkerson believes this economic anxiety is a primary motivator for Trump's engagement in a potential deal, aiming to prevent further disruption to the global economy. However, the proposed terms, such as Iranian control over the Strait and lifting oil sanctions, represent major concessions that are politically difficult for the US to accept.
Larry Johnson: "The major oil companies... told Trump, 'Hey, you're going to have major fuel disruption if you don't get this situation with the with the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf sorted out.'" [] Colonel Wilkerson: "I think that's probably at the root of Trump's anxiety... It's the economic repercussions of this." []
3Israel's Pervasive Influence on US Foreign Policy
Both analysts repeatedly highlight Israel's profound influence on US foreign policy, describing it as 'venomous' and 'insidious.' They argue that this influence, particularly from figures close to Netanyahu within the Trump administration, makes any deal perceived as unfavorable to Israel highly unlikely. The discussion mentions Israel's pressure against releasing frozen Iranian assets and the proposed Section 224, which would formalize intelligence relationships and hide defense appropriations to Israel, as evidence of this deep entanglement.
Larry Johnson: "I don't see how Trump... is under threat from the Zionist elements... to agree to this." [] Colonel Wilkerson: "We have a very very venomous insidious relationship because so many family members... are ensconced in the administration." [] Larry Johnson: "Israel's done it to itself because they're so damn obnoxious and arrogant." []
4Denial of the Deal and Trump's Contradictory Stance
During the podcast, news emerged that Iranian media denied the finalization of the deal, stating that claims of a Sunday signing in Geneva were 'absolutely not true.' This was quickly followed by a tweet from Donald Trump, who contradicted earlier reports of a deal, calling the Iranian leaks 'fake news' and criticizing Iran as 'very dishonorable people.' This rapid reversal underscores the chaotic and untrustworthy nature of the information surrounding these high-stakes negotiations.
Host: "Here is what Fox News said that it says the claims made by Donald Trump and some foreign media that the agreement has been finalized and it's to be signed on Sunday in Geneva are absolutely not true." [] Host: "Here is what Donald Trump tweeted moments ago. The terms that Iran leaked out to the fake news have nothing to do with the terms that we that were agreed to in the writing... Very dishonorable people to deal with." []
Bottom Line
The US's economic vulnerability to Middle East oil disruptions creates a strategic paradox: while politically aligned with Israel, the US is economically compelled to engage with Iran on terms that Israel opposes.
This tension could lead to inconsistent US foreign policy, characterized by public posturing against Iran while privately seeking de-escalation to stabilize oil markets, potentially creating opportunities for other global powers (e.g., China, Russia) to mediate or gain influence.
Nations or entities seeking to challenge US hegemony in the Middle East could exploit this economic-political disconnect by offering alternative security or trade arrangements that bypass US influence, particularly if the US continues to prioritize Israeli interests over broader regional stability.
The growing sentiment among younger Americans against Israel's influence and actions, coupled with Israel's 'obnoxious and arrogant' behavior, is eroding its long-standing political support in the US.
This demographic shift, though slow to translate into political action, suggests a future where US aid and unconditional support for Israel may diminish, potentially forcing Israel to reconsider its regional strategy and reliance on US backing.
Advocacy groups and political movements focused on shifting US foreign policy in the Middle East could leverage this growing public discontent to push for legislative changes, such as re-evaluating military aid to Israel or promoting more balanced diplomatic approaches in the region.
Colonel Wilkerson's stark prediction of nuclear weapon use in the Middle East, potentially by Israel, highlights a critical and under-discussed risk in the current geopolitical climate.
This suggests that the 'Samson option' is not merely theoretical but a perceived last resort for an increasingly isolated Israel, posing an existential threat to regional and global stability.
International bodies and non-proliferation advocates could intensify efforts to address Israel's undeclared nuclear arsenal and push for regional disarmament talks, framing it as a necessary step to prevent catastrophic escalation, especially given the current leadership in Israel.
Lessons
- Monitor the Strait of Hormuz for any renewed disruptions or attempts by Iran to assert control, as this remains a critical choke point for global oil markets.
- Analyze US political statements and actions regarding Iran and Israel with skepticism, recognizing the strong internal and external pressures that can lead to contradictory positions or rapid policy reversals.
- Assess the long-term implications of shifting public opinion in the US, particularly among younger demographics, regarding support for Israel, as this could signal future changes in US foreign policy and aid packages.
Quotes
"If that holds, I mean that that'll be astonishing. Because it will be essentially a declaration of surrender by the United States."
"I don't see how Trump under with because he's under you know, I'd say he's almost under threat from the Zionist elements uh that uh to agree to this but but it's going to take this agreement to get this war stopped."
"I think that's probably at the root of Trump's anxiety... It's the economic repercussions of this, and he's beginning to understand... he wants My problem is is this a delaying tactic?"
"I don't see how Donald Trump agrees to these 14 points. Uh because it it be just seen as completely humiliating. Or if he agrees to it, uh the neocons and Zionists, they'll probably kill him. I mean and I mean that literally."
"If you want to solve the Middle East issue for starters, tell Israel to get back in its cage. And the United States has the Donald Trump has the power to do that. You cut them off from all aid. They will not be happy, they'll scream and holler, but they'll have to come to grips that they you know, without US aid, they're screwed."
"I think we're going to use them. I really think we're going to use them. I don't mean here in Iran. I hope not. But I think in one of the other place, Ukraine or Southwest Asia, I think we're going to see the use of nuclear weapons. My inclination is it'll be BB."
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