Prof. Ted Postol: Israel NAKED: No Air Defense, No Radars, No Interceptors - Escalation = Suicide
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Iran is in the 'driver's seat' due to its advanced drone and ballistic missile capabilities, which inflict substantial damage and societal disruption on Israel.
- ❖The US is facing a critical shortage of munitions, drawing from allies like Japan and South Korea, which strains alliances.
- ❖Professor Postol asserts that a US 'massive attack' on Iran would be ineffective against its underground military infrastructure and would only escalate civilian casualties, strengthening Iranian resolve.
- ❖Donald Trump's and Benjamin Netanyahu's actions are framed as politically motivated and detached from American national security interests.
- ❖The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists published a factually incorrect article about a 1995 Russian false nuclear alert, demonstrating a profound lack of understanding of early warning systems and a failure in peer review.
- ❖The Bulletin, despite claiming scientific authority, routinely publishes 'nonsense or outright misinformation' on nuclear safety and climate change, lacking a rigorous review process.
- ❖The 1995 Russian false alert was caused by a Norwegian scientific rocket whose high trajectory mimicked a Trident missile's upper stage burnout, coupled with Russia's inability to detect launches from the North Atlantic via satellite.
- ❖The American intelligence community was unaware of the limitations of the Russian early warning satellite system, a critical shortfall that could lead to catastrophic misunderstandings in a crisis.
Insights
1Iran's Strategic Advantage and Israeli Vulnerability
Professor Postol argues that Iran holds a strategic advantage, possessing thousands of drones and ballistic missiles that can inflict significant damage and societal disruption on Israel. He states that Israel's air defenses are largely ineffective against ballistic missiles and are running out of interceptors for drones. This sustained pressure is causing substantial stress within Israeli society, disrupting daily life and eroding support for Netanyahu.
Israelis are taking a 'terrible beating' from Iranian drones and ballistic missiles, leading to widespread damage and forcing people into shelters, disrupting their lives (). Iran can 'persist' with 'thousands, maybe even tens of thousands' of drones and can build more quickly ().
2US Munitions Depletion and Alliance Strain
The United States is described as being in 'bad shape' regarding its weapons stockpiles, actively taking munitions from allies like Japan and South Korea to resupply Israel. This action is seen as undermining American alliances, as these allies perceive the US as prioritizing Israeli security over their own, despite claims of mutual defense.
Americans are 'running out of weapons to send' and are 'taking weapons out of countries like Japan and South Korea,' which disturbs these allies who feel their security is not prioritized ().
3Ineffectiveness of a 'Massive Attack' on Iran
Postol dismisses the idea of a US 'massive attack' on Iran as militarily futile. He states that Iran's real military capacity, including missile production and storage, is housed in deeply engineered underground tunnels that are impervious to conventional attacks. Any such attack would primarily result in the 'murder of innocent civilians' and destruction of civilian infrastructure, which would only strengthen Iranian resolve.
Iran's 'real military capacity' is in 'underground tunnels' which are 'no way of getting at' (). Attacking would only 'kill more people, expend more munitions, and you're going to have no effect' ().
4Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: A Source of Misinformation
Professor Postol presents a detailed critique of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, citing a recent article on a 1995 Russian false nuclear alert as 'totally without merit' and 'not even wrong.' He states the article contained numerous factual errors, demonstrated a complete misunderstanding of satellite early warning systems, and was published without any apparent scientific review process. He alleges this is a routine problem, extending to their coverage of climate change, and attributes it to the editor's alleged 'technical illiteracy' and the organization functioning as a 'social club' rather than a rigorous scientific journal.
The article on the 1995 false alert was 'so inaccurate that it wasn't even wrong' and 'provided no information about what the false alert was' (). The Bulletin 'has no process for reviewing articles' () and articles on climate change are 'almost always nonsense or outright misinformation' ().
5The 1995 Russian False Alert and US Intelligence Shortfalls
The 1995 false alert was triggered by a Norwegian scientific rocket whose high-altitude trajectory mimicked the upper stage burnout of a Trident ballistic missile, as detected by Russian radars. This was exacerbated by a critical, unknown flaw in the Russian early warning satellite system, which prevented it from detecting launches directly from the Earth's surface, particularly from the North Atlantic. Postol reveals that the American intelligence community was unaware of this Russian satellite limitation, creating a dangerous potential for miscalculation during a crisis.
The rocket went 'up to almost 1,400 kilometers high' (), mimicking a Trident 2 first stage burn (). Russian satellites 'are unable to look directly down at the Earth' (), meaning they have 'no satellite system that could tell them that they're under attack from the North Atlantic' (). American intelligence was 'stunned to find out that the Russian early warning satellite system could not look down at the surface of the Earth' ().
Bottom Line
The erosion of scientific integrity in 'expert' publications like the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists creates a dangerous vacuum of reliable information on critical global security issues.
When trusted sources publish misinformation, it undermines public trust, misinforms policymakers, and can lead to flawed decisions on matters as grave as nuclear war or climate change.
There is an opportunity for new, rigorously peer-reviewed, and transparent platforms for scientific communication on national security and environmental issues, emphasizing verifiable facts over institutional narratives or political agendas.
The US's reliance on depleting its own and allies' munitions to support Israel's conflict with Iran is strategically unsustainable and weakens its global standing.
This policy not only drains US military resources but also alienates key allies, potentially weakening collective security arrangements and leaving the US more isolated in future conflicts.
A strategic re-evaluation of US foreign policy is needed, focusing on long-term national interests, resource conservation, and strengthening alliances through equitable burden-sharing rather than unilateral resource transfers.
Key Concepts
Why didn't the dog bark?
This Sherlock Holmesian concept, applied to the 1995 Russian false alert, asks why expected warning systems (like Russian satellites) failed to detect a potential threat. It highlights critical gaps in intelligence and surveillance capabilities that can lead to dangerous misinterpretations of events.
Lessons
- Critically evaluate information from 'expert' organizations, especially on complex scientific and geopolitical topics, by cross-referencing with multiple sources and looking for evidence of rigorous review.
- Advocate for greater transparency and accountability within scientific and policy-oriented publications, demanding clear peer-review processes and corrections for factual errors.
- Understand the potential for miscalculation in international conflicts, particularly regarding nuclear alerts, by recognizing the technical limitations of early warning systems and the dangers of intelligence shortfalls.
Quotes
"The Israelis are taking a terrible beating from the Iranian drones and ballistic missiles."
"The Americans are taking weapons out of countries like Japan and South Korea... you're showing your priorities and your priorities don't include us in a serious way."
"This is not in the American national security interests. You know, we're alienating all our allies. We're expanding munitions that, you know, if if you have if you want to argue you have legitimate defense needs, we're using it all up on by giving it to these absolutely maniacal Israelis who are using it to bomb innocent civilians."
"The real military capacity of Iran right now is all in underground tunnels. There is no way of getting at those underground tunnels."
"This article was so inaccurate that it wasn't even wrong. I mean it was just completely without merit."
"I can tell you that the articles on climate change in the bulletin are almost always nonsense or outright misinformation."
"You are lying. You are misrepresenting yourself as experts on matters that you have no knowledge of. And that is immoral. It's also dangerous."
Q&A
Recent Questions
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