Alastair Crooke: Iran Smashed the US Military Model – China Is Watching

Iran has successfully employed low-cost, asymmetrical tactics, such as small speedboats and anti-ship missiles in swarms, to counter the US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. This approach has proven highly effective against the US's traditional, expensive, high-tech military model.

The host mentions "Project Freedom" concluded after 24 hours due to Iran's leverage in the Persian Gulf. Alastair Crooke explicitly states Iran's "small speedboats and the anti-ship missiles and the very swarmlike process" against the naval blockade of Hormuz. He later explains that an Iranian intercept costs "a few hundred dollars" compared to a "Patriot missile costing 17 million dollars."

Both China and Russia are closely observing and learning from Iran's successful asymmetrical warfare strategies. China is applying these lessons to potential scenarios around Taiwan, particularly concerning managing any American naval blockade. Russia is noting Iran's graduated use of sophisticated missiles to create deterrence against Israel without escalating to all-out war, informing its own strategy against European provocations.

Crooke states, "the lessons from Iran, the lessons of its asymmetrical war are very apparent in China... Chinese looking at Taiwan surrounded by big heavy Iranian vessels haven't taken notice of the Iranian small speedboats...". He adds, "Russia too has noted how Iran's powerful graduated use of sophisticated missiles on Israel has created a deterrence."

The ongoing conflict and blockades are on the brink of triggering a severe global energy crisis, potentially the worst since 1973, and causing widespread supply chain disruptions. Inventories of strategic reserves are critically low, and the economic impact, including inflation and unavailability of essential goods, is expected to hit Europe and America "shockingly" and "very quickly."

Crooke warns of "one of the worst energy shocks since 73", noting "gasoline or petrol... is just unavailable" in Ireland and "Australia is almost run out". He predicts "the crisis suddenly becoming real and no longer abstract but coming um and tangible and hurting people" within a week. He also mentions "supply lines will snap" leading to shortages of various goods.

The US's ability to negotiate an end to the conflict with Iran is severely constrained. Iran demands guarantees against future war and sanction lifting, which Trump cannot credibly provide due to his past actions (planning sneak attacks during negotiations) and the structural inability of Congress to ratify such a treaty. Furthermore, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's insistence on continuing the war appears to hold significant sway over Trump's decisions, despite the economic damage to the US.

Crooke highlights Iran's demand for "a guarantee of no further war now or in the future" and questions Trump's credibility, noting he "twice hoodwinked Iran into taking part in negotiations while at the same time he was planning a sneak attack". He states that a treaty would be "structurally blockaded" by Congress and that Netanyahu "calls a shot", insisting "the war must go on."