Ex-Goldman CEO: 3 sectors where I'm putting my money right now
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Lloyd Blankfein's personal portfolio is 98% in risky assets, with 95% of that in equities, mostly single stocks (75-90%).
- ❖He focuses his investments on Tech (hyperscalers and second-tier), Energy, and Financial Services, leveraging his expertise.
- ❖Blankfein actively day trades using an iPad and phone, gathering information through calls and business news, viewing it as 'background music'.
- ❖He believes the difference between top performers and those who 'can't make it' is often very small, akin to a one-stroke victory in golf.
- ❖Luck plays a significant role in career success; his CEO position at Goldman Sachs was enabled by his predecessor's nomination to Treasury Secretary.
- ❖Warren Buffett invested $5 billion in Goldman Sachs during the 2008 crisis based on a phone call and trust, not extensive due diligence, prioritizing confidence over capital.
- ❖Blankfein advises young investors to be in riskier assets like equities (e.g., S&P 500 ETFs) and consider tech-focused ETFs due to the sector's importance.
- ❖He views his anxiety as an asset in a risk-taking business, helping him anticipate problems and 'look around corners'.
- ❖The former CEO emphasizes 'giving with your warm hand, not your cold hand,' advocating for philanthropy while alive.
- ❖He reads history to understand patterns, noting that while history doesn't repeat, it 'rhymes,' offering perspective on current challenges.
Insights
1High-Conviction Sector Focus for Personal Investing
Lloyd Blankfein maintains a highly concentrated and risky personal investment portfolio, with 98% in risky assets, primarily equities. He focuses heavily on three sectors: Tech (including hyperscalers and 'second-tier' companies like Oracle), Energy (due to his trading background), and Financial Services (leveraging his deep industry knowledge). This contrasts with typical diversified strategies for high-net-worth individuals.
Blankfein states, 'I am 98% in risky assets of which you know 95 of the 98 are equities probably a third a quarter is in ETFs and 75% is in single stock and if I'm wrong it's 10% are in ETFs and 90% are in single stocks because that's what I like to do.' He specifies 'big tech... Googles... Microsofts... Nvidia... maybe Oracle' and mentions 'energy' and 'financial services' as his three focus areas.
2Luck and Small Margins Drive Extreme Success
Blankfein argues that 'genius' is rare, and the difference between highly successful individuals and those who don't make it is often minimal. He attributes his own ascent to CEO of Goldman Sachs partly to luck—specifically, his predecessor's nomination for Treasury Secretary, which created an opening. This perspective downplays pure skill, emphasizing timing and slight advantages.
Blankfein states, 'The difference between somebody who's really really good and somebody who can't make it is not that great.' He adds, 'I got to be CEO of Goldman Sachs because my predecessor got nominated to be treasury secretary. Had he not been that, maybe he would have lasted five more years in the job and maybe I would have been, you know, too old for it at that point.' He also notes, 'Elon Musk may be a guy like that where I don't know how [he does it],' but largely finds most successful people relatable.
3Trust and Reputation as Capital in High Finance
During the 2008 financial crisis, Warren Buffett made a critical $5 billion investment in Goldman Sachs with minimal paperwork, based purely on trust and a phone call. Blankfein highlights that this investment was less about the capital (which Goldman already had) and more about the confidence it signaled to the market, stabilizing the firm amidst widespread distress.
Blankfein recounts, 'He offered to at a very important moment invest money in Goldman Sachs... I think it was $5 billion or 10 billion.' He further explains, 'The money was irrelevant to us cuz we had the money. What we didn't have was we didn't have the confidence of the world.' Buffett's casual 'I'm taking my grandkid to Dairy Queen' comment after agreeing to the deal underscores the informal yet powerful nature of the transaction.
Bottom Line
Lloyd Blankfein, a former CEO of Goldman Sachs, actively day trades his personal portfolio multiple times daily using only an iPad and phone, relying on calls and business news rather than complex systems or teams.
This demonstrates that sophisticated, high-frequency trading isn't exclusive to institutional setups. An experienced individual with deep market knowledge and a strong network can execute complex strategies with minimal tools, challenging the perception that such trading requires extensive infrastructure.
For experienced investors, this suggests that personal, agile trading can be a viable and engaging approach, potentially leveraging personal insights and networks more effectively than large, bureaucratic systems. It also highlights the importance of information access and quick decision-making over elaborate technical setups.
Blankfein views his personal anxiety, inherited from his father, as a beneficial trait for his career as a risk manager and CEO, enabling him to 'look around corners for problems and seeing things that could go wrong.'
This reframes a commonly perceived negative trait (anxiety) as a strategic asset in high-stakes, risk-intensive environments. It suggests that individuals with a predisposition to worry or anticipate negative outcomes can excel in roles requiring meticulous risk assessment and proactive problem-solving.
Individuals who struggle with anxiety might re-evaluate its potential benefits in specific professional contexts, particularly in risk management, strategic planning, or critical analysis. Companies could also consider how to harness such personality traits in roles where anticipating potential pitfalls is crucial, rather than solely seeking 'optimistic' profiles.
Key Concepts
History Rhymes, Doesn't Repeat
Attributed to Mark Twain, this model suggests that while historical events are unique, underlying patterns, human behaviors, and societal reactions often recur in different contexts. Blankfein applies this to market cycles and societal challenges, using historical knowledge to gain perspective on current events.
The Narrow Margin of Victory
Blankfein posits that the difference between exceptional success and failure is often very slight, not a vast gap in skill. This 'win or take all' dynamic means small advantages or fortunate timing can lead to disproportionate outcomes, as seen in sports or high-stakes careers.
Giving with Your Warm Hand
This philosophy, shared by Blankfein, advocates for engaging in philanthropy and supporting loved ones while one is alive and can experience the positive impact, rather than waiting until death when the 'hand is cold'.
Lessons
- For long-term growth, consider a diversified portfolio of equities, such as S&P 500 ETFs (e.g., SPY or VOO), and potentially supplement with tech-focused ETFs to gain disproportionate exposure to the sector's ongoing transformation.
- Cultivate a strong personal network and prioritize reputation and trust in business dealings, recognizing that informal commitments can be as powerful, if not more so, than formal contracts in high-stakes situations.
- Embrace a 'warm hand' approach to wealth: consider giving to family and philanthropy while alive to experience the joy and impact, rather than solely planning for post-mortem distribution.
Notable Moments
Blankfein recounts his college experience where, with only $11 left, he approached the financial aid office and was given a $500 check without judgment, which profoundly influenced his commitment to financial aid and giving with 'generosity of spirit'.
This personal anecdote reveals the formative power of dignified assistance and shaped Blankfein's philanthropic philosophy, emphasizing not just giving, but how it feels to receive. It highlights the lasting impact of early life experiences on later values and actions.
Upon becoming a partner at Goldman Sachs, Blankfein received advice to live a life where his obituary would be long, but his time at Goldman would only be a 'sentence or two,' encouraging a balanced life beyond his professional identity.
This advice underscores a philosophy of holistic success, valuing personal growth, philanthropy, and a broad engagement with the world over singular professional achievement. It's a powerful reminder for high-achievers to cultivate diverse interests and contributions.
Blankfein discusses the ambivalence he feels when giving to his children, recognizing that while he wants to provide for them, he also sometimes regrets that they don't experience the same struggles that shaped his own drive and success.
This candid reflection on the 'curse of inherited wealth' highlights a common psychological challenge for successful parents. It touches on the complex interplay between providing for one's children and fostering their resilience and work ethic, a dilemma many wealthy individuals face.
Quotes
"The difference between somebody who's really really good and somebody who can't make it is not that great."
"I know nobody knows anything whereas everybody else just wonders."
"Sometimes a good risk manager has to promote the idea that people take risk because that's what you're there for. And if you don't take risk, you don't you don't move forward. There's no growth."
"History again doesn't repeat but to paraphrase a remark attributed to you know Twain Mark Twain is it doesn't repeat but it rhymes and so patterns happen again."
Q&A
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