Scott Ritter: Iran TARGETS the USS Abraham Lincoln Aircraft Carrier — Obliterating US Bases & Israel
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The assassination of Ali Khamenei by US/Israel was a strategic blunder, turning him into a martyr and rallying the Iranian people around the Islamic Republic.
- ❖Iran's constitutional system proved resilient, with an emergency council quickly assuming power after Khamenei's death.
- ❖Gulf Arab states were targeted by Iran for providing basing and intelligence support to the US, exposing their vulnerabilities and complicity.
- ❖US intelligence is described as 'horrible,' leading to the bombing of civilian targets like a girls' school due to misidentification.
- ❖Iran employs sophisticated deception, feeding false intelligence to the US to waste resources on decoy targets.
- ❖The death of Khamenei removed the primary religious fatwa against nuclear weapons, potentially paving the way for Iran to pursue them.
- ❖Iran's attacks on Israeli command centers demonstrate superior intelligence and precision targeting, causing significant fear among Israeli leadership.
- ❖US carrier strike groups are kept far from Iranian shores, acknowledging the threat of Iran's hypersonic anti-ship missiles.
- ❖China and Russia are focused on maintaining economic stability and preparing a diplomatic off-ramp for the conflict, rather than direct military intervention.
Bottom Line
Iran is actively pursuing a 'reverse regime change' strategy in Gulf Arab states by targeting US military installations and exposing the corruption and weakness of their ruling monarchies. This aims to incite Shia uprisings and destabilize the region from within.
This strategy could fundamentally alter the geopolitical landscape of the Persian Gulf, potentially leading to the overthrow of several US-allied monarchies and expanding Iranian influence, creating a more volatile and unpredictable region.
For regional actors, understanding this 'reverse regime change' dynamic is crucial for anticipating future conflicts and internal power shifts. For external powers, it necessitates a re-evaluation of alliances and military presence in the Gulf.
The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who had issued fatwas prohibiting nuclear weapons, inadvertently removed a key religious barrier to Iran's nuclear program. The new interim leadership includes figures who advocate for nuclear weapons under existential conditions.
This event could accelerate Iran's development of nuclear weapons, transforming it into a nuclear-armed state. It suggests that the US/Israeli 'decapitation' strategy had the opposite of its intended effect on Iran's nuclear ambitions.
This creates an urgent need for revised non-proliferation strategies, potentially involving direct engagement with the new Iranian leadership or a re-evaluation of the efficacy of military strikes versus diplomatic solutions in preventing nuclear proliferation.
Lessons
- Re-evaluate the effectiveness of 'decapitation strikes' and regime change operations, considering their potential to backfire and strengthen adversary resolve.
- Prioritize robust, multi-source intelligence gathering and analysis to avoid mis-targeting and falling victim to adversary deception tactics in complex conflict zones.
- Assess the long-term geopolitical implications of military actions, particularly how they might empower adversaries and destabilize regional alliances, as seen with Iran's 'reverse regime change' strategy.
Notable Moments
The US-backed Israeli 'decapitation strike' on Ali Khamenei's residence, killing him and 40 senior Iranian officials.
This event, intended to cripple the Iranian regime, is framed as the ultimate strategic blunder, creating a martyr and unifying the Iranian people, thereby guaranteeing US/Israeli defeat.
The bombing of a girls' school in Minab, southern Iran, by US forces, resulting in child casualties.
This incident is cited as definitive evidence of 'horrible' US intelligence, demonstrating a fundamental misunderstanding of Iranian targets and potentially indicating widespread mis-targeting in the campaign.
Iran's precise missile strike on a meeting of senior Israeli combat leaders in Bait Shamesh.
This highlights Iran's superior intelligence capabilities and precision targeting, demonstrating their ability to penetrate Israeli operational security and strike high-value, dynamic targets, causing significant fear within Israel.
The storming of the Green Zone in Baghdad, housing the US embassy, by pro-Iranian protesters, following US bombings in Baghdad.
This illustrates the immediate, destabilizing impact of US military actions on regional stability and the strong anti-American sentiment, suggesting a potential 'cleansing' of American presence from the Middle East.
Quotes
"The first six missiles that were fired, which successfully carried out a decapitation strike, guaranteed that the United States and Israel will lose this war."
"We lost the war the moment we dropped those bombs or those missiles on Ali Kame's home."
"Iran is the most legitimate democracy in the Middle East."
"For us to believe that an active secondary school for girls age 6 to 12 is a command and control target, it means we got it completely wrong."
"We killed the one guy that said no to nuclear weapons and we've now empowered Iran, empowered a man who believes that Iran has a right to pursue nuclear weapons."
"This is not America first. This is America last. This is America subordinate itself to Israel."
"America is a cancer in the Middle East. We bring nothing good to the Middle East. We everything we touch dies. We are horrible. We need to be thrown out of the Middle East."
Q&A
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