Larry Johnson: Iran JUST Escorted Tankers Past US Blockade – Israel Waiting for Greenlight to ATTACK
YouTube · OOSWi1usPB4
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The US blockade on Iran is only intercepting about 10% of ships, with 34 ships already having sailed out unstopped.
- ❖Iran utilizes alternative trade routes via the Caspian Sea to Russia and through Pakistan, circumventing the US blockade.
- ❖The US military has expended at least 45% of precision strike missiles, 50% of THAAD missiles, nearly 50% of Patriot interceptors, and 30% of Tomahawk missiles in the war with Iran.
- ❖Larry Johnson estimates Patriot missile stockpiles are 90-95% depleted, requiring 6+ years to replenish due to slow production (50-60 per month) and reliance on Chinese rare earth minerals.
- ❖President Trump's alleged mental decline, marked by irritability, memory issues, and 'confabulation,' is impacting his decision-making, including past discussions about using nuclear weapons.
- ❖Iran has strategically mined the Strait of Hormuz, and the US lacks the capacity to clear them quickly, potentially closing the strait for 6-8 months minimum.
- ❖The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing global economic hardship, including fuel and food shortages, and accelerating the development of a BRICS economic foundation independent of the petrodollar.
- ❖Iran's foreign minister is coordinating with Pakistan and Russia, signaling a united front and a 'friends and family program' for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, charging tolls to others.
Insights
1Ineffectiveness of US Blockade on Iran
The US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is largely symbolic and ineffective. Iran continues to move goods, with only about 10% of its ships being intercepted. Iran leverages alternative trade routes through the Caspian Sea to Russia and via Pakistan, demonstrating its ability to circumvent US pressure.
An Iranian bulk carrier escorted by IRGC naval vessels safely crossed the Sea of Oman despite US Navy attempts to seize it. Independent maritime traffic companies reported 34 ships had already exited Iran unstopped. Larry Johnson states the US intercepts only about 10% of ships due to insufficient naval assets and the vastness of the area.
2Critical Depletion of US Missile Stockpiles
The ongoing conflict has severely depleted US precision missile stockpiles, with some categories like Patriot interceptors potentially 80-95% exhausted. Replenishment is projected to take years due to slow production rates (e.g., 9 THAADs/month, 50-60 PAC-3s/month) and reliance on critical materials from China, which has slowed deliveries.
CNN reported at least 45% of precision strike missiles, 50% of THAAD, nearly 50% of Patriot, and 30% of Tomahawk stockpiles expended. Larry Johnson disputes these figures, claiming actual depletion is closer to 80-95% for Patriot missiles, noting that 4,000 ballistic missiles fired by Israel would require 8,000 PAC-3s for defense, far exceeding the US inventory.
3Impact of Trump's Alleged Mental Decline on Policy
President Trump's alleged mental state, characterized by irritability, forgetfulness, and 'confabulation' (making up facts), is presented as a significant factor in the administration's impulsive and dangerous foreign policy decisions, including discussions about using nuclear weapons.
Larry Johnson cites reports from Robert Barnes about Trump administration officials expressing 'grave concern' over Trump's mental state in January, noting increased irritability, temper issues, memory loss, and confabulation (e.g., claiming 'mine sweepers' were clearing mines in Hormuz when they were not). Trump's recent statements disavowing nuclear weapon use are seen as a response to earlier reports of him considering them.
4Iran's Strategic Leverage and Global Economic Impact
Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, now largely mined, grants it significant geopolitical and economic leverage. The closure of the strait is causing accelerating global economic hardship, particularly in Europe and the Global South, through shortages of oil, gas, and crucial commodities like fertilizer, while simultaneously strengthening the BRICS economic bloc.
Iran controls entry/exit from the Strait of Hormuz. The US Department of War informed Congress that clearing mines would take six months post-hostilities. Larry Johnson highlights that 35% of the world's fertilizer originates from the region. Lufthansa cancelled 20,000 flights due to fuel shortages, and Kazakhstan announced stopping oil shipments to Europe. This situation is accelerating the shift of global money and bonds towards China and strengthening Russia's position as a reliable supplier.
Bottom Line
The US military's reliance on Chinese-sourced rare earth minerals for missile production creates a critical vulnerability, making replenishment of depleted stockpiles dependent on a geopolitical rival.
This dependency means that even if the US increases defense spending, it cannot rapidly rebuild its missile inventory without China's cooperation, severely limiting its ability to project power or engage in prolonged conflicts against major adversaries like China itself.
Nations seeking to reduce their reliance on US military protection or challenge US hegemony could exploit this vulnerability by fostering closer ties with China or developing independent defense supply chains.
Iran's 'friends and family program' for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, offering free transit to allies (Russia, China) and charging tolls to others, is a sophisticated geopolitical strategy.
This system incentivizes nations to align with Iran, creating a new economic and political bloc that bypasses US-led sanctions and undermines the dollar-denominated global trade system. It forces countries to choose sides pragmatically based on economic necessity.
Countries heavily reliant on Persian Gulf trade can gain economic advantages by establishing diplomatic and trade agreements with Iran, potentially at the expense of their relationships with the US and its allies.
Key Concepts
Cost of Doing Business
Iran views the US blockade as a manageable 'cost of doing business,' similar to drug traffickers accepting a 10% interception rate while profiting from the remaining 90% that gets through. This model suggests that sanctions are ineffective if the economic benefit of circumvention outweighs the risk of interception.
Tsunami Analogy for Economic Impact
The economic consequences of the Strait of Hormuz closure are likened to a tsunami: initially, the water recedes (initial period of impact), making people complacent, but then it returns with accelerating force, causing widespread devastation. This model emphasizes delayed but compounding economic effects.
Lessons
- Businesses reliant on global shipping or energy markets should assess their supply chain vulnerabilities given the ongoing instability and potential long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Policymakers should re-evaluate the effectiveness of sanctions and blockades as tools of foreign policy, considering their limited impact on resilient nations like Iran and their potential to accelerate the formation of alternative economic blocs.
- Investors should monitor the shift in global financial flows towards BRICS nations and away from traditional Western markets, as geopolitical events are accelerating this economic realignment.
Notable Moments
Larry Johnson's strong dismissal of Pete Hegseth's claims about the US blockade, calling him 'completely full of [__]' and comparing his statements to 'fingernails on a blackboard.'
This sets an immediate tone of skepticism towards official US narratives and highlights the guest's highly opinionated and critical stance on the administration's competence and honesty.
The detailed breakdown of US missile stockpile depletion, including specific missile types and estimated percentages, with a critical assessment of replenishment timelines and supply chain dependencies.
This provides concrete data points that challenge the perception of overwhelming US military might and reveals significant vulnerabilities in its defense industrial base, particularly concerning prolonged conflicts.
The host's observation that the war's outcome is a 'huge win' for Iran and the Global South, and Larry Johnson's agreement on its acceleration of a BRICS economic foundation.
This frames the conflict not just as a regional struggle but as a catalyst for a fundamental shift in the global economic and political order, with significant implications for international relations and trade.
Quotes
"No one sails from the straight of Hormuz to anywhere in the world without the permission of the United States Navy. To the regime in Tyrron, the blockade is tightening by the hour. We are in control. Nothing in, nothing out."
"He is so completely full of [__]. His eyes got to be deep brown. I mean, good lord. He He lies."
"Iran right now is operating like a drug trafficker. You know a drug trafficker in Mexico. They send their product their heroin or their cocaine up to the United States. 10% of it gets intercepted. All right. Cost of doing business. 90% though goes through and they make the money off that 90%."
"This whole mental decline from you know, people think it's showing indications of frontal lobe preffrontal lobe dementia. So you know the the basically the the front part of the brain starts to atrophy and that that front part of the brain is important in terms of you know your social filters telling you what what's appropriate to say what's not appropriate to say how to act how to interact with other people."
"The United States doesn't it doesn't have you know it's not like a a factory that's running at only 20% and all you got to do is sort of turn you know turn up the the power and then it goes up to 100%. No they they don't have that ability. So it's it's going to be years before they re replenish those stock stock piles if at all."
"The only solution is a diplomatic solution. And that's going to have to be done in accordance with Iran's terms because Iran controls the straight of Hormuz. And it's sealed off most of it with mines right now."
Q&A
Recent Questions
Related Episodes
🚨 TOTAL F*CKING CHECKMATE 😂😂😂
"The host argues that Trump's 'ceasefire' with Iran was a calculated '5D chess' move to orchestrate a global energy market reshuffle, while simultaneously lambasting 'woke' domestic policies and the 'freefall' of anti-Trump conservative figures."
Patrick Henningsen: Hezbollah JUST Fired Back at Israel - Iran Vows to “Crush” All Attacks
"Patrick Henningsen argues that the US and Israel initiated an illegal war against Iran, driven by Trump's incompetence and Israeli influence, leading to an inevitable escalation with severe global economic repercussions."
Col. Jacques Baud: What a US Ground Invasion of Iran Would REALLY Look Like
"Colonel Jacques Baud dissects the strategic futility of a US ground invasion of Iran, arguing that current troop levels are insufficient and such an action would backfire, exposing US allies and potentially leading to Iran's nuclearization."
Bibi DEMANDS Ground Troops As Marines Rushed to Iran
"Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing for US ground troops in Iran, framing air strikes as insufficient, while the US rushes Marines to the region and struggles to secure the Strait of Hormuz against surprisingly capable Iranian defenses."