Robert Barnes: US Attacks Iran: Jordan, Bahrain & Kuwait Were Hit Within Hours

Robert Barnes asserts that former President Trump's approach to the Iran conflict is not strategic but emotional, driven by deep-seated fears. These include fear of humiliation, fear of criticism from the Israel lobby and Fox News, and fear of being compared unfavorably to former President Obama. This psychological state leads Trump to repeatedly abandon deals at the last minute, even when they are beneficial, and to 'confabulate' realities to justify his emotional shifts. This makes him 'deal incapable' and unpredictable.

Barnes states, 'He chickens out over and over again... He chickens out in favor of the Israel lobby. He's so intimidated and afraid of criticism from that crowd that he decides to make what was likely an accident... a cover for... escalating again.' He adds, 'His decision-making process is completely broken... he thinks like a toddler.'

The speaker claims that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is deliberately escalating the conflict with Iran and in the broader Middle East because his political survival and re-election depend on the war continuing. This strategy includes potentially targeting civilian infrastructure, such as water supply plants, which is a significant escalation. The speaker suggests that Israeli officers might be influencing US targeting decisions, or that the US is using unreliable AI for target selection.

Barnes states, 'Israel's whole goal is escalation, escalation, escalation. Bibi Netanyahu cannot afford for this war to end. His only chance... of re-election in Israel is that this war be going on in October and November.' He also mentions, 'Israeli officers are in the room making decisions about targets. I wouldn't surprise me at all unfortunately.'

Despite US blockades and sanctions, Iran is financially resilient, with enough oil and gas revenue to sustain itself for at least seven months beyond budgeted needs due to spiking energy prices. Furthermore, Iran holds 'escalatory dominance' in the region, meaning it has more options for escalating conflict without resorting to nuclear weapons, and can absorb more pain than its adversaries. The popular sentiment in Iran, even with religious fatwas against nuclear weapon use, is strongly in favor of acquiring nuclear weapons for pride and deterrence.

Barnes notes, 'Iran's got at least 7 months... of their budgeted revenue because of how they budget revenue... and because of how much oil and gas spike during this time period.' He adds, 'Iran holds the escalatory dominance outside of the use of actual nuclear weapons. Other than that, all the tools of escalatory dominance are in Iran's hands.' Regarding nukes, he says, 'The sentiment in Iran amongst the people is to get a nuclear weapon.'

The ongoing conflict is directly contributing to significant economic problems, including a rise in US inflation to 4.2%, the highest in three years, primarily due to soaring energy prices. This economic strain, combined with the war's unpopularity, is projected to lead to a disastrous midterm election for Trump, potentially resulting in impeachment proceedings. Beyond the US, the conflict risks a massive refugee crisis if Gulf country desalination plants are hit, which could further destabilize Europe's political landscape, already reeling from previous immigration crises.

The host mentions, 'US inflation rose to 4.2% in May... with soaring energy prices linked to the Iran war driving much of the increase.' Barnes warns, 'If Trump doesn't get out this month then... you head towards the cliff.' He also states, 'You could have a massive refugee crisis if the water desalination plants in the Gulf coast of the Gulf countries get hit.'