Col. Larry Wilkerson: Israel's WORST Defeat Yet, it's OVER
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Israel is experiencing a severe military defeat in Lebanon, leading to significant IDF casualties and psychological distress.
- ❖Former President Trump's foreign policy regarding Iran is characterized by self-negotiation and contradictory statements, driven by internal political pressures and Israeli demands.
- ❖Proposals for a US military attack on Iran are dismissed as unrealistic and motivated by financial interests of military contractors.
- ❖The US is perceived as a 'rogue state' that has abandoned international law, contributing to global instability and an impending economic depression.
- ❖China and Russia are actively working towards establishing a 'nuclear weapons free zone/war-free zone' in the Middle East, emphasizing economic and social development over military force.
- ❖The long-term viability of Israel as an exclusively Jewish state is questioned, with predictions of its 'suicide' under current leadership and a potential shift towards a diverse, single-state solution.
Insights
1Israel's Catastrophic Defeat in Lebanon
Col. Wilkerson asserts that Israel is 'losing badly' in Lebanon, comparing the situation to the 1982 and 2006 conflicts. He notes that the IDF has ceased publishing casualty figures due to orders from Benjamin Netanyahu, but other sources indicate extremely high rates of post-traumatic stress, suicide, and no-shows for duty among Israeli soldiers. An IDF commander is quoted describing daily 'risky, pointless missions in broad daylight' resulting in deaths.
IDF has quit publishing figures; high PTSD, suicide, no-show rates; IDF commander quote: 'We go out every day on risky, pointless missions in broad daylight and we get killed.'
2Trump's Incompetent and Contradictory Iran Policy
Wilkerson characterizes former President Trump's approach to Iran as 'negotiating with himself,' marked by contradictory messages of potential attack and improving talks. He suggests Trump is in a 'quandary,' caught between Netanyahu's insistence on action and the disastrous reality of Israel's current military situation, alongside the need to 'face save' with Iran after being 'beaten' both militarily and at the negotiating table.
Trump's statements on canceling Iran attack due to GCC requests; a senior US official's quote about 'conversation with bombs' if Iran isn't responsive; Wilkerson's assessment of Trump being 'beaten' by Iran.
3US as a 'Rogue State' and Economic Decline
Col. Wilkerson describes the United States as a 'rogue state,' a 'criminal,' 'bandit,' and 'pirate' under the current administration, citing unclassified documents justifying strikes and the killing of 194 people without due process. He warns that the US is already in a global recession and is 'headed for depression,' which the 'empire' is ill-equipped to withstand, potentially leading to a 'dismembered empire' or civil war.
US killed 194 people without due process; classified DOJ document justifying strikes; US already in global recession, headed for depression.
4The Rise of a 'War-Free Zone' Vision by China and Russia
Wilkerson notes that China and Russia are pursuing a vision for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as a 'nuclear weapons free zone/war-free zone.' This approach prioritizes economic and social development over military solutions, contrasting sharply with the US's historical militarization of the region. Iran's new Persian Gulf Strait Affairs Authority is cited as an example of regional actors asserting control.
China and Russia's interest in a 'weapons free zone'; BRICS conference theme: 'Innovation, Resilience, Development, and Cooperation'; Iran's establishment of the Persian Gulf Strait Affairs Authority.
5Israel's Unsustainable Future as a Jewish State
Wilkerson predicts that the current form of the Jewish state of Israel will not survive, stating, 'I don't think there's any Jewish state named Israel that's going to be there.' He argues that Netanyahu's actions are leading to 'Israel's suicide' and that the country is an 'apartheid state' that cannot sustain itself by force as an exclusively Jewish entity. A potential solution discussed is the Israeli-Palestinian Confederation (IPC) project.
Wilkerson's statement: 'I don't think there's any Jewish state named Israel that's going to be there.'; Israel as an 'apartheid state'; discussion of the Israeli-Palestinian Confederation project.
Bottom Line
Pakistan's deployment of 8,000 troops, fighter jets, and Chinese air defense systems to Saudi Arabia is ambiguous, potentially aimed at protecting Saudi assets from US re-entry to attack Iran, rather than aiding a US-led attack.
This suggests a complex and potentially fractured regional alignment, where traditional US allies might be hedging against US actions or even preparing to defend against them, complicating any future military operations in the Gulf.
Analysts should investigate the true motivations behind such deployments to understand the evolving trust dynamics and potential for new regional security architectures independent of US influence.
The US military is ill-prepared for a ground invasion of Iran, lacking sufficient ground forces and logistical capabilities for a large-scale deployment, as evidenced by the appointment of a two-star general for the land forces component.
This indicates a significant disconnect between hawkish political rhetoric and military reality, suggesting that any direct military confrontation with Iran would likely be limited to air/naval strikes or special operations, with high risks of failure.
Policymakers should reassess military options against Iran, acknowledging the severe limitations and potential for mission failure, and prioritize diplomatic solutions that align with actual military capabilities.
The US political system is characterized by declining democracy, where corporate influence (Citizens United) and judicial decisions (Virginia Supreme Court ruling) negate popular votes, making it 'over' or 'on life support.'
This implies a fundamental erosion of democratic principles, where money and power increasingly override the will of the electorate, leading to widespread disillusionment and potential instability.
Advocacy groups and citizens could focus on campaign finance reform and judicial accountability to restore democratic integrity, using local elections like Tom Massie's as a test case for resistance against entrenched power.
Lessons
- Challenge narratives from 'old generals' advocating for war, as their motivations may be tied to financial gains from military contractors, not genuine strategic interests.
- Recognize the potential for a global economic depression and its severe impact on the US, prompting a re-evaluation of national priorities away from costly military interventions.
- Support initiatives that promote regional stability and economic development, such as 'war-free zones' in the Middle East, as an alternative to militarized foreign policy.
Notable Moments
Col. Wilkerson recounts investigating generals advocating for the 2003 Iraq War, finding they were paid by news organizations and military contractors, leading him to distrust similar calls for war.
This personal anecdote provides a historical precedent and a critical lens through which to view current calls for military action, suggesting underlying financial motives rather than genuine strategic necessity.
Wilkerson highlights the US's historical foundation as 'not a Christian nation,' citing the unanimously ratified 1797 Treaty of Tripoli, which stated, 'Under no account is ours a Christian nation.'
This challenges the contemporary narrative of the US as a Christian nation, particularly in the context of religious influence in the Pentagon, and underscores the original intent of religious neutrality in governance.
Quotes
"We're really not making a lot of progress... We're at a very serious place today. The pressure is on them to be responsive in the right way... It's time for the Iranians to throw a bit of candy out. We need some real sturdy and granular conversation regarding the nuclear program. If that's not going to happen, we will have a conversation with bombs, which will be a shame."
"The man's in the past. Deeply, deeply in the past. He's so deep in the past, he's growing a beard... I think he's senile."
"We go out every day on risky, pointless missions in broad daylight and we get killed."
"More Americans have committed suicide since 9/11 than were killed in Vietnam, either Iraq war, Afghanistan... Israel's being torn to pieces."
"We are the criminal. We are the bandit. We are the pirate."
"Donald Trump is going to have a legacy I think that's going to rival BB Netanyahu's, surpass it really because the damage he does is going to be done to 340 million people... BB's just destroyed a little pip-squeak called Israel."
"The problem in the region is not Iran. The problem is Israel."
Q&A
Recent Questions
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