John Helmer: China’s Unthinkable Move, Iran’s Response to US, New Middle East Reality
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Trump's 'Operation Freedom' in the Strait of Hormuz is framed as a psychological and political necessity to demonstrate 'winning' domestically, possibly to avert impeachment or a 25th Amendment challenge.
- ❖The US strategy in Hormuz involves either staging pre-arranged 'victories' or provoking Iran to justify a larger military offensive, akin to a 'Gulf of Tonkin' incident.
- ❖Iran is actively consolidating its control over the Strait of Hormuz, using 'two lines' to restrict UAE's port access and punish its alignment with the US and Israel.
- ❖The UAE has suffered significant strategic and economic losses, pushing it further into alignment with the United States, despite potential Iranian retaliation.
- ❖John Helmer predicts a potential US-China 'hug' around May 14-15, where China might tacitly approve US military action against Iran in exchange for US concessions on Taiwan.
- ❖Chinese analysts reportedly believe China is 'winning World War III' through economic and logistical superiority, aiming for a 'coexistence of hegemons' with the US.
- ❖Russia's 'Anchorage formula' for a deal with the US has failed, leading to increasing skepticism within Russia about China's commitment as a strategic partner.
- ❖China has not publicly deterred the US from using 'maximum force' against Iran, suggesting a transactional approach to its alliances.
- ❖The host argues China possesses significant leverage over the US, including control over rare earth minerals essential for US military rearmament, and is learning from the Ukraine and Middle East conflicts.
Insights
1Trump's Dual-Track Strategy in the Strait of Hormuz
Trump's 'Operation Freedom' in the Strait of Hormuz is a calculated set of measures designed to achieve a political 'win' for his administration. This involves either staging pre-arranged vessel movements to appear as successful military escorts or provoking Iran into an incident (a 'Gulf of Tonkin' scenario) that would justify a massive military attack. The primary motivation is Trump's domestic political need to demonstrate 'winning' to his base, especially with the looming threat of impeachment or a 25th Amendment invocation if Republicans lose Congress.
Trump's 'near mad tweet' repeating 'winning' 3,600 times; 'secret setups' with Greek sources suggesting pre-arranged vessel movements; the comparison to a 'Gulf of Tonkin provocation' to shift blame to Iran.
2Iran's Assertive Response and UAE's Strategic Losses
Iran is actively solidifying its control over the Strait of Hormuz, defining 'two lines' that effectively cut off key UAE ports and prevent the UAE from increasing oil sales outside OAPEC/GCC. This is a direct response to perceived US and allied violations of the ceasefire and aims to punish the UAE for its increasing alignment with the US and Israel. The UAE has already suffered significant strategic damage, including the collapse of the IMEC trade corridor and economic losses in tourism and trade, leaving it with limited options beyond aligning with the US.
Iranian Parliament head's tweet on 'solidifying' the Strait of Hormuz equation; Iran defining 'two yellow lines' impacting UAE ports; UAE's IMEC corridor collapse and economic damage.
3China's Potential 'Hegemonic Partnership' with the US
Despite public rhetoric, China may be preparing for a 'hegemonic partnership' with the United States. This could involve China offering tacit approval or non-interference in potential US military actions against Iran in exchange for US concessions on the Taiwan question. Chinese analysts reportedly believe China is already 'winning World War III' through its economic, technological, and logistical superiority, and sees a 'coexistence of hegemons' with the US as mutually beneficial, even if it comes at the expense of allies like Iran or Russia.
Wang Yi's statement about 'stable' US-China relations and Taiwan as the 'biggest risk'; Helmer's prediction of a Trump-Xi deal around May 14-15; Chinese analysts' views on China's 'winning' and 'coexistence of hegemons'.
4Skepticism on China's Commitment and US Leverage
The host expresses strong skepticism about China's willingness to enter a deal with the US that would compromise its strategic position or abandon allies. He argues that China views the US as a hegemon incapable of true partnership and is strategically leveraging US weaknesses in Ukraine and the Middle East. China's control over rare earth minerals, crucial for US military rearmament, and its 'learning process' from ongoing conflicts, provide significant leverage against the US, making a simple 'swap' for Taiwan unlikely.
Host's argument that US mindset is 'hegemony, not cooperation'; China instructing companies not to comply with US sanctions on Iranian oil; China's control of rare earth minerals; China learning from Ukraine and Middle East wars.
Bottom Line
The US is actively rearming Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, not just Taiwan, as part of a broader strategy to contain China, which China perceives as a serious new risk.
This regional rearmament indicates a long-term US strategy to build a multi-front deterrent against China, shifting the focus beyond just Taiwan and potentially escalating tensions across the Pacific.
Businesses and investors should monitor defense spending and technological transfers in these Asian nations, as well as the potential for increased regional instability and supply chain disruptions.
China's perceived 'hegemonic ambition' and belief in its own 'winning World War III' through economic and logistical control, rather than military combat, shapes its foreign policy and willingness to make deals.
This self-perception suggests China may be willing to sacrifice traditional alliances or rhetorical support for strategic partners (like Iran or Russia) if it believes a deal with the US serves its larger goal of global economic dominance and 'coexistence of hegemons'.
Analysts should critically evaluate China's actions versus its rhetoric, particularly regarding its support for sanctioned nations, and consider how this 'economic warfare' mindset impacts global trade and alliances.
Lessons
- Monitor US-China interactions around May 14-15 for any announcements or shifts in rhetoric regarding Taiwan or the Middle East, as this could signal a significant geopolitical realignment.
- Re-evaluate the stability and reliability of international alliances, particularly those involving China, Russia, and the US, considering the potential for 'hegemonic partnerships' to override traditional loyalties.
- Assess the vulnerability of supply chains and energy routes, especially through the Strait of Hormuz and Malacca Strait, given the escalating tensions and the potential for military provocations and disruptions.
Quotes
"Trump can claim that Iran opened fire, provoked and triggers uh the kind of a massive attack that he's been assembling his forces to do and has been preparing for some days now."
"The equation of the Strait of Hormuz is in the process of being solidified. The security of shipping and energy transit has been jeopardized by the United States and its allies through the violation of the ceasefire and the position of a blockade."
"Wang Yi underscored that the Taiwan question bears on China's core interests and is the biggest risk in China-US relations."
"They all think that China is winning World War III. They think that Chinese military superiority is so great that without fighting, um which is expensive, they can demonstrate not only military superiority but technological superiority."
"A hegemon partnership suits both sides. It doesn't necessarily work to the advantage of Iran. And it doesn't necessarily work to the advantage of Cuba. And it doesn't necessarily work to the advantage of Russia."
Q&A
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