🚨 LIVE: Saudi Arabia To Launch WAR In Iran - IRGC Has MELTDOWN On Streets
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Saudi Arabia and Persian Gulf partners are holding an emergency meeting to potentially authorize military action against the IRGC.
- ❖US and Israeli forces have executed widespread strikes, eliminating 40 IRGC commanders and the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
- ❖The IRGC has launched over 800 missiles and drones at regional countries, including civilian targets, with limited effectiveness and even hitting their own vessel.
- ❖Iranian state media and IRGC members experienced public meltdowns following Khamenei's death, and low-ranking IRGC members are reportedly fleeing to Afghanistan.
- ❖Ayatollah Arafi has been appointed as the interim Supreme Leader, with the host predicting a short tenure.
- ❖Three US service members were killed in action during 'Operation Epic Fury' amidst Iranian retaliation.
Insights
1Formation of a Unified Anti-IRGC Alliance
Saudi Arabia and its Persian Gulf Arab partners are assembling for an emergency meeting to discuss potential military action against the IRGC. This follows months of private urging by Saudi Arabia and Israel to President Trump to strike Iran. The host states that Crown Prince MBS has authorized the Saudi military to prepare an attack if IRGC aggression continues, and an emergency video call is planned to form a strong, imminent alliance.
Saudi Arabia and their regional partners near the Persian Gulf are now assembling to have an emergency meeting over a potential military action against the IRGC in Iran. () Saudi Arabia and the leaders in Riyad privately urged the US president that if we don't destroy the IRGC then of course the regime in Tehran will get stronger in the future. And now MBS the crown prince has now authorized the Saudi military to prepare an attack on the IRGC especially if they continue to hit the Saudi territory. () There's going to be a vehicle between all the Persian Gulf Arab countries min foreign ministers and this is to assemble and rally the troops and to form a strong imminent alliance against the IRGC. ()
2Decapitation of Iranian Leadership and Military Infrastructure
US and Israeli forces have launched extensive strikes across Iran, targeting critical IRGC infrastructure. The IDF reported eliminating 40 IRGC commanders and senior officials in the initial minute of the conflict, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The Israeli Air Force has established control over Tehran's airspace and is preparing for sustained strikes on military targets, having already destroyed the general staff headquarters of Iran's internal security forces and Tehran's defense command post.
The Islamic Republic state media finally confirmed the death of Ali harmony. () The IDF have now said that we have eliminated 40 IRGC commanders and senior regime officials in the opening strike yesterday. All within 60 seconds, within the first minute of this war, the whole of the leadership and the structure of the RGC fell apart, including their supreme leader, Mush Ali or Ali Deoo, Ali the mouse. () The Israeli defense minister Katz has also said that the Israeli air force fighter jets are currently dominating Tehran's airspace. () We have destroyed the general staff headquarters of Iran's internal security forces which this definitely helps the situation with the uprising the Iranian people on the ground. ()
3IRGC's Ineffective and Disorganized Retaliation
The IRGC launched over 465 missiles and 357 drones (totaling over 800 projectiles) against various regional targets, including civilian areas in the UAE, Bahrain, and Israel. Despite the volume, these attacks resulted in minimal damage, with many missiles missing targets, one hitting a Palestinian house, and a drone failing to detonate in Dubai. The IRGC even accidentally hit and sank one of its own vessels in the Strait of Hormuz while attempting to block shipping. The host notes that 500 of their estimated 2,000-2,500 missiles have already been expended with little effect.
These countries have been attacked so far and each one of them had missiles and drones thrown at them. So Cypress... Oman... Bahrain... Iraq... Israel... Jordan... Kuwait... Qatar... Saudi Arabia... Syria... UAE... Total as of now 4 over 465 missiles and over 357 missiles and that's about 824 in total. () One missile actually hit a the Palestinian territory in Judea and Samaria or the West Bank and it actually hit a Palestinian house. () They managed to somehow hit their own vessel. I'm not even joking and it's sunk right now. () A drone just hit a residential apartment in Dubai just now. But the good news is it failed to detonate. ()
Bottom Line
The Iranian regime is characterized as a 'gangster' organization with no legitimate structure or rules, implying that any new leadership will follow the same destructive ideology.
This perspective suggests that external actors should not expect rational or 'reformist' behavior from any segment of the Iranian leadership, as the entire system is fundamentally criminal and ideological. Negotiations or diplomatic solutions based on traditional statecraft are likely to fail.
This understanding reinforces the argument for a strategy focused on regime change or internal collapse rather than engagement, potentially empowering internal opposition movements or supporting more aggressive military actions.
Low-ranking IRGC members are actively fleeing Iran to Afghanistan, indicating a significant breakdown in morale and loyalty within the regime's core military force.
The flight of IRGC personnel suggests that the regime's internal cohesion is fracturing under pressure, making it vulnerable to further internal uprisings and external military action. It undermines the regime's ability to maintain control and project power.
This creates an opportunity for the Iranian people's uprising to gain momentum, as the regime's enforcement arm weakens. External forces could potentially support or encourage these defections and internal resistance.
German intelligence is warning European nations about activated Iranian sleeper cells across the continent, particularly in places like London.
The escalation in the Middle East is directly translating into a heightened threat of terrorism and internal security challenges within Europe. These cells could be activated for retaliatory attacks, posing a significant risk to civilian populations and infrastructure.
European security agencies must increase vigilance and counter-terrorism efforts, potentially leading to pre-emptive arrests or enhanced surveillance. This also highlights the need for coordinated international intelligence sharing and counter-terrorism strategies.
Lessons
- Monitor the formation and actions of the Saudi-led Arab alliance against the IRGC, as their involvement could significantly accelerate the conflict's outcome.
- Track the internal stability of Iran, particularly signs of further IRGC defections or increased popular uprisings, which indicate the regime's weakening grip.
- Be aware of heightened security risks in Europe due to potential activation of Iranian sleeper cells, and understand the broader implications of Middle East conflicts on global security.
Notable Moments
Public meltdowns by Iranian state media presenters and IRGC members on the streets following the reported death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
These highly emotional and public displays of grief and anger, including threats of revenge against Trump, highlight the deep ideological commitment and the shock within the regime, while also revealing the performative nature of loyalty under duress.
Video evidence showing low-ranking IRGC forces fleeing Iran towards the Afghanistan border.
This visual evidence directly contradicts the regime's narrative of strength and unity, showcasing a significant breakdown in morale and discipline within the IRGC, which is critical for the regime's survival.
An IRGC drone hitting a residential apartment building in Dubai but failing to detonate.
This incident underscores the IRGC's willingness to target civilian areas but also highlights the apparent technical deficiencies and ineffectiveness of some of their weaponry, reducing the actual impact of their widespread missile and drone attacks.
Quotes
"If we don't destroy the IRGC then of course the regime in Tehran will get stronger in the future."
"Trump is going to pay a price paid by no American president at all time. Paid by no Zionist of all time, paid by no criminal of all time, Trump is going to see because revenge is coming. And revenge is coming soon."
"We will leave no stone unturned to make sure that we do defend ourselves and we are prepared for that. We hope it doesn't come to it. But by the same token, we're not going to sit idly by as we continue to be recipients of such a barrage of attacks that are unlawful and unjustified as well."
"We have eliminated 40 IRGC commanders and senior regime officials in the opening strike yesterday. All within 60 seconds, within the first minute of this war, the whole of the leadership and the structure of the RGC fell apart, including their supreme leader, Mush Ali or Ali Deoo, Ali the mouse."
"Freedom, dignity, wealth, these three together constitute the greatest happiness of humanity. If you bequest all three to your people, their love for you will never die."
Q&A
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