Interviews 02
Interviews 02
May 1, 2026

Larry Johnson & Col. Wilkerson: It’s Over: Iran Just Wiped Out Trump’s Blockade - War IMMINENT

YouTube · Y5Ij0cWArw0

Quick Read

Geopolitical analysts Larry Johnson and Colonel Wilkerson assert that the US blockade on Iran is a "charade" and the Trump administration's military actions are leading to an unsustainable, escalating global conflict with severe economic repercussions.
The US blockade on Iran is a "charade," failing to stop oil exports and only stopping a small fraction of Iranian vessels.
The war's cost is estimated at $28.7 to $50 billion, contributing to an unsustainable US national debt of $39 trillion.
US and Israeli military actions have inadvertently unified Iranian public opinion and are causing Israel's military to "fall apart" in Lebanon.

Summary

Larry Johnson and Colonel Wilkerson discuss the escalating conflict with Iran, arguing that the US-led blockade is ineffective and a "charade." Johnson details how the US Navy's limited ships and distance from Iranian waters render the blockade largely symbolic, allowing hundreds of Iranian vessels to pass. Colonel Wilkerson critiques the War Powers Resolution as unconstitutional and an enhancement of presidential power, while both express concern over the mounting financial cost of the war, estimated at $28.7 to $50 billion, and its impact on the US national debt. They highlight that the US has grossly underestimated Iran's unified leadership, composed of combat veterans, and that military actions have only strengthened Iranian public support for their government. The speakers also address Israel's military struggles in Southern Lebanon against Hezbollah, its escalating casualties, and the internal disintegration of the IDF, suggesting that Netanyahu's political desperation is driving further conflict. They reveal that Russia has directly warned Trump against ground operations in Iran, indicating a high risk of global conflagration and economic depression due to the current US foreign policy approach of military power and sanctions.
This analysis provides a critical, contrarian view on the current geopolitical landscape, particularly concerning US and Israeli military actions in the Middle East. It highlights the potential for rapid escalation into a global conflict with devastating economic consequences, challenging official narratives about the effectiveness and costs of current strategies. Understanding these perspectives is crucial for anticipating future international relations, market stability, and the trajectory of global power dynamics.

Takeaways

  • The US Navy's blockade of Iranian ports is largely ineffective, with only a small percentage of vessels being intercepted due to operational limitations and distance from Iranian waters.
  • The ongoing conflict with Iran has incurred a massive and rapidly increasing cost, estimated between $28.7 billion and $50 billion, significantly contributing to the US national debt.
  • Iran's leadership is described as highly unified and underestimated by the US, with military actions inadvertently strengthening public support for the Iranian government.
  • Israel's military operations in Southern Lebanon are failing, resulting in high casualties and internal disintegration of the IDF, while Hezbollah effectively uses advanced drone technology.
  • Russia has issued a direct warning to the Trump administration against deploying ground forces in Iran, signaling a high risk of broader international conflict.
  • The global economic outlook is dire, with predictions of a recession leading to a global depression, exacerbated by rising oil and gasoline prices.

Insights

1Ineffectiveness of the Iranian Blockade

Larry Johnson asserts that the US Navy's blockade of Iranian ports is a "charade" and not genuinely effective. Despite deploying multiple carrier strike groups and amphibious readiness groups, the US Navy maintains a 200-mile distance from Iranian shores to avoid being targeted. This operational constraint, combined with a limited number of ships capable of boarding, means only a small fraction (3-10%) of the 100-200 Iranian vessels entering and leaving the Gulf daily are intercepted. Iran continues to sell significant amounts of oil, generating billions, undermining the blockade's economic impact.

Larry Johnson details the US Navy's deployment, operational distance, and the volume of Iranian shipping, stating Iran sold 150 million barrels of oil for $21 billion. []

2Unsustainable Economic Costs of War

The financial burden of the ongoing conflict is rapidly escalating and deemed economically unsustainable. Colonel Wilkerson reports a Pentagon estimate of $28.7 billion, while US officials communicating with CBS News suggest the cost is closer to $50 billion. Larry Johnson points to specific losses, including half a billion dollars in planes and over a billion dollars in radars, with more than 49 aircraft lost. This spending contributes to a national debt that increased by $1 trillion in the last 77 days of 2026, reaching $39 trillion, with projections of hitting $40 trillion soon. This debt, coupled with rising oil and gasoline prices (up 40 cents in Florida in three days), is expected to severely impact consumer spending and lead to a global depression.

Colonel Wilkerson cites a Pentagon figure of $28.7 billion. [] Larry Johnson mentions CBS News reporting $50 billion, $500 million in plane losses, and $1 billion per radar lost. [] He also details the US national debt increase from $37 trillion to $39 trillion. []

3Underestimated Iranian Leadership and Public Unity

The Trump administration, influenced by Israeli intelligence, has grossly underestimated the strength and unity of Iran's leadership, mistakenly believing it to be in disarray. Larry Johnson highlights that key Iranian leaders, including Peskian, Arachi, Galibah, the Ayatollah, Mustava Kami, and the head of the IRGC, are all veterans of the Iraq war. This shared combat experience fosters a strong, unified leadership, similar to the US 'greatest generation.' US attacks have not weakened the regime but instead galvanized Iranian public support, turning former opponents into regime supporters.

Larry Johnson discusses Trump's claim of Iranian leadership disarray and his research into the combat veteran backgrounds of Iranian leaders. [] He notes a video of a former opponent rallying in support of the Iranian regime. []

4Israel's Military Disintegration and Policy Failures

Israel's military operations in Southern Lebanon are faltering, with reports of brigades withdrawing due to heavy casualties, estimated to be double or triple those of 2006. Hezbollah is effectively using FPV drones, a technology Israel reportedly failed to anticipate. Colonel Wilkerson notes that the IDF's armored and ground forces are 'shattering,' with high PTSD and suicide rates, leading to internal disarray. Netanyahu's objectives in Gaza and Lebanon have not been met, making him a "three times a loser" and potentially desperate for a 'Hail Mary' attack on Iran, despite its likely failure.

Larry Johnson mentions Israel withdrawing brigades from Southern Lebanon and increased casualties compared to 2006. [] Colonel Wilkerson states the IDF is 'falling apart' and mentions high PTSD/suicide rates. [] Larry Johnson notes Hezbollah's effective use of drones. []

5Russia's Warning to the US and Escalation Risk

Vladimir Putin directly warned Donald Trump to "keep your damn hands off of Iran" during a phone call, initiated by Putin, following Trump's meeting with the Iranian foreign minister. This rare initiative from Putin underscores Russia's full backing of Iran. Despite this, Trump is expected to ignore military advisors and warnings, continuing to escalate tensions by flowing more troops and resources into the region. This disregard for counsel, combined with Russia's declaration of being "at war" with NATO, sets the stage for a potential global conflagration, with Europe being particularly vulnerable due to its weakened military state.

Larry Johnson describes Putin's phone call to Trump, the message conveyed, and Yuri Ushikov's briefing. [] He also mentions Lavrov's statement that Russia is "at war" with NATO. []

Notable Moments

Discussion of the War Powers Resolution's unconstitutionality and its use by presidents to justify conflicts.

This highlights a fundamental flaw in US constitutional checks and balances regarding military engagements, suggesting presidents can circumvent congressional oversight for war.

The revelation that 60 countries are meeting in Colombia to discuss the climate crisis, without inviting the US.

This signifies a growing international isolation of the United States, indicating a decline in its global leadership and influence on critical issues beyond military and sanctions policy.

The UAE's decision to leave OPEC and the GCC, and align with Israel.

This move is framed as a desperate and irrelevant act by a country facing economic collapse due to the regional conflict, highlighting the severe economic impact on US allies in the Gulf.

Trump's call to reduce American troops in Germany, shocking the Pentagon.

This decision is seen as further alienating allies and weakening NATO, driven by domestic political considerations rather than strategic military advice, and is met with internal military resistance.

Quotes

"

"The War Powers Resolution is unconstitutional. Anybody in the business of interpreting the constitution, originalist or modernist, will come to that conclusion if they're worth a damn."

Colonel Wilkerson
"

"The United States is engaged in one of the greatest acts of mass delusion that I've ever seen."

Larry Johnson
"

"If they executed every single one of those with the military power behind it, combined and did it against Iran, they couldn't beat Iran."

Colonel Wilkerson
"

"Israel's armed forces are falling apart. They're falling apart. They're they're doing things that even they are not supposed to be doing."

Colonel Wilkerson
"

"Russia has already now changed its language visav Europe and or NATO as a whole which includes the United States when Lavro announced last week we are at war."

Larry Johnson

Q&A

Recent Questions

Related Episodes

Iran Update: Israel’s Newest Bombing Campaign, the Oncoming War With China and How to Avoid It
The Tucker Carlson ShowMay 4, 2026

Iran Update: Israel’s Newest Bombing Campaign, the Oncoming War With China and How to Avoid It

"Colonel Wilerson reveals how the US and Israel are actively bombing China's strategic infrastructure in Iran, escalating a covert economic war that Beijing intends to win without direct military conflict by dismantling the dollar's global dominance."

GeopoliticsUS Foreign PolicyIran Conflict+2
Pepe Escobar: “Total Failure”: Trump’s Blockade Just Backfired Disastrously
Interviews 02Apr 22, 2026

Pepe Escobar: “Total Failure”: Trump’s Blockade Just Backfired Disastrously

"Pepe Escobar argues that the US blockade against Iran, spearheaded by Donald Trump, has utterly failed and backfired, accelerating global economic chaos and challenging US geopolitical dominance."

GeopoliticsInternational RelationsEnergy Security+2
Col. Jacques Baud: What a US Ground Invasion of Iran Would REALLY Look Like
Interviews 02Mar 30, 2026

Col. Jacques Baud: What a US Ground Invasion of Iran Would REALLY Look Like

"Colonel Jacques Baud dissects the strategic futility of a US ground invasion of Iran, arguing that current troop levels are insufficient and such an action would backfire, exposing US allies and potentially leading to Iran's nuclearization."

GeopoliticsMilitary StrategyUS Foreign Policy+2
Bibi DEMANDS Ground Troops As Marines Rushed to Iran
Breaking PointsMar 20, 2026

Bibi DEMANDS Ground Troops As Marines Rushed to Iran

"Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing for US ground troops in Iran, framing air strikes as insufficient, while the US rushes Marines to the region and struggles to secure the Strait of Hormuz against surprisingly capable Iranian defenses."

GeopoliticsIran ConflictMilitary Strategy+2