The Future Of Iran, Israel & Ukraine – FULL Interview w/ The Duran!
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Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The US-Iran conflict is in an 'unstable equilibrium,' with military advice suggesting further air strikes are ineffective.
- ❖Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz is the 'ace card,' intensifying global economic problems for the US if the blockade continues.
- ❖Russia, with military intelligence chief Admiral Kostikov present, openly backs Iran, indicating more than just moral support.
- ❖Many in London view Trump's entry into the Iran conflict as a catastrophic blunder, influenced by Netanyahu's assurances of an easy victory.
- ❖Trump's decisions are perceived as profit-driven, treating foreign policy like real estate deals, with figures like Jared Kushner holding significant, unofficial negotiating roles.
- ❖The 'Greater Israel Project' is gaining awareness and opposition in the UK, with growing public anger over actions in Gaza.
- ❖The ongoing conflict is causing significant psychological strain and demoralization within the Israeli military, leading to a surge in suicides.
- ❖European elites maintain unity and justify control through the Ukraine war, which is seen as the 'next big money maker' for globalists.
- ❖Unlike the US, Europe lacks a robust independent media to provide counter-narratives, contributing to public acceptance of official stances on Ukraine.
Insights
1US-Iran Conflict: An Unstable Equilibrium
The current state of the US-Iran conflict is an 'unstable equilibrium,' where surface-level calm belies significant underlying activity. US military advice indicates that more air or missile strikes will not achieve anything, leaving the US stuck between impossible negotiations and dangerous ground operations. Iran, in turn, believes it holds leverage and is playing a waiting game, expecting pressure to mount on the US.
Alex Mercouris describes the situation as 'unstable equilibrium' and reports that 'the US military have given advice that more air strikes, more missile strikes, more bombing is not going to achieve anything.' Alexander Christophoro adds that Iran is 'in a waiting game. They believe that they have the leverage.'
2Iran's Leverage via Strait of Hormuz and International Backing
Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz is its primary strategic advantage, allowing it to disrupt global oil and product exports and intensify economic pressures. This leverage, combined with explicit political and military intelligence backing from Russia (and implicitly China), strengthens Iran's negotiating position and makes it resistant to US demands.
Alex Mercouris states, 'the Iranians here have the cards, they are in control of the straight of Hormuz which is the ace card in this game.' He also notes Putin's meeting with Iran's foreign minister included Admiral Kostikov, head of Russian military intelligence, signifying 'more backing as well.' Alexander Christophoro confirms, 'where Russia is, you can bet that China is also there.'
3Trump's Perceived Compromise and Profit Motives in Foreign Policy
Many observers in London believe Trump's decision to attack Iran was a 'catastrophic mistake' influenced by Benjamin Netanyahu, who assured him of an easy victory. Beyond potential blackmail, Trump's 'vanity and grandiosity' and a 'profit-driven' approach to foreign policy, treating international relations like real estate deals, are seen as key drivers for his actions, with figures like Jared Kushner playing significant, unofficial roles.
Alex Mercouris states, 'That is the overwhelming view in London... Trump blundered into this he made assumptions based on what Netanyahu told him.' He speculates Trump's motivations could be 'money' or 'sheer vanity and grandiosity' swayed by Netanyahu's promises of being 'the great president.' Alexander Christophoro adds, 'this second term of Trump's is is very profit driven... they treat it like a real estate deal.'
4Israel's Actions in Lebanon and Trump's Weakness
Despite ceasefires, Israel continues to demolish homes in southern Lebanon, reflecting its long-standing objective to 'break Hezbollah.' This ongoing aggression, which Iran lists as a top concern for any peace deal, exposes the limits of Trump's influence over Israel, as his public calls for a halt to hostilities have been ignored.
Alex Mercouris explains, 'the origins of this crisis ultimately were in wars that Israel fought on the territory of Lebanon... that provoked the emergence of Hezbollah.' He notes Israel 'will immediately act to undermine those ceasefires.' Alexander Christophoro highlights that 'Lebanon is is top on the list for Iran' and Israel's continued actions show 'that Trump really isn't calling any shots.'
5Psychological Toll on Israeli Military and Societal Shift
The prolonged conflict and 'genocidal assault' in Gaza are taking an 'enormous psychological toll' on the Israeli military, leading to increased demoralization and a significant rise in suicides and PTSD cases. This internal stress, coupled with growing public awareness and opposition to the 'Greater Israel Project' in places like the UK, indicates a broader societal shift and discomfort, even within Jewish communities.
The transcript cites 'Haret's investigation' reporting 'a sharp rise in suicides within Israeli military' and a '40% increase' in PTSD cases since 2023. Alex Mercouris confirms 'the military in Israel is becoming increasingly demoralized' and that 'many people in Britain including... amongst the Jewish community here are making precisely that point' about Israel endangering Jews.
6Europe's Ukraine War Obsession and Lack of Counter-Narrative
Europe's political elite maintains an 'obsessive' commitment to the Ukraine war, using it as a unifying factor amidst internal crises and to justify increased controls. This war is framed as the 'next big money maker' for globalists, with military contracts and budget increases. A key reason for public acceptance of this narrative is the absence of an independent alternative media in Europe, unlike in the US, which prevents critical analysis and widespread protest.
Alex Mercouris states the Ukraine war is 'the one thing that every part of the political elite can agree on' and 'has a functional purpose.' Alexander Christophoro calls it 'the next big grift' and 'next big money maker.' Mercouris adds, 'there is no counternarrative about it here in Britain and in the rest of Europe. Europe does not have the kind of independent alternative media that you find in the United States.'
Bottom Line
The perceived weakness of Trump's position in controlling Israel's actions in Lebanon, despite publicly stating he told them to stop, reveals a significant power imbalance where US foreign policy is dictated by Israeli interests, even against stated US goals for a deal with Iran.
This suggests that any US-led 'peace' initiatives in the Middle East are fundamentally compromised and unlikely to succeed if they conflict with Israel's objectives, leading to prolonged instability and conflict.
For other global powers or regional actors, this dynamic presents an opportunity to circumvent or challenge US influence by directly engaging with or supporting actors like Iran and Hezbollah, knowing the US may not be able to enforce its own stated policies.
The lack of an independent media and a strong counter-narrative in Europe regarding the Ukraine war, unlike in the US, allows European governments to push austerity measures and increased military spending without significant public backlash or critical questioning of the war's true costs and beneficiaries.
This media landscape enables elites to maintain control and pursue agendas that benefit specific financial interests (e.g., military-industrial complex) at the expense of public welfare, leading to a less informed and less politically active populace.
For alternative media platforms and independent journalists, there is a significant unmet demand in Europe for critical analysis and diverse perspectives on geopolitical events, offering a potential growth area for those willing to challenge mainstream narratives.
Lessons
- Seek out independent media sources, particularly those from outside one's own country, to gain a more comprehensive and critical understanding of global conflicts like those in the Middle East and Ukraine.
- Recognize that geopolitical decisions, especially regarding military conflicts, often have underlying profit motives and are influenced by political vanity, rather than purely strategic or humanitarian concerns.
- Understand the specific leverage points of regional actors, such as Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, to better anticipate the trajectory and potential outcomes of international conflicts.
Notable Moments
Discussion of a drone attack on British bases in Cyprus, interpreted as a warning from Iran via Hezbollah to not get involved in the conflict.
This highlights the regional expansion of tensions and the direct communication of red lines by non-state actors, indicating the complex and multi-layered nature of the conflict.
The revelation that Russian military intelligence chief Admiral Kostikov was present at Putin's meeting with Iran's foreign minister.
This provides concrete evidence of Russia's active military intelligence support for Iran, moving beyond mere political rhetoric and indicating a deeper alliance against US interests.
Quotes
"We've reached the sort of stage when um on the surface nothing is happening but below the surface a lot is happening."
"The Iranians here have the cards, they are in control of the straight of Hormuz which is the ace card in this game."
"This second term of Trump's is is very profit driven... Every decision they're making is some sort of business deal, some sort of real estate deal. There's some sort of profit motive behind it."
"Far from Israel acting as a safe haven for Jews. It's putting Jewish people in Israel itself in danger because this is a society now that is trapped in a constant cycle of war."
"The war in Ukraine is the one thing that every part of the political elite can agree on and that gives them coherence and a certain degree of internal unity."
"Ukraine is the next big uh grift. It's the next big money maker."
"An entire continent has been lulled to sleep over the linkages."
Q&A
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