Amb. Chas Freeman: Israel’s Agenda Is Falling Apart
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Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The ongoing US-Iran conflict is a 'ceasefire with Israeli characteristics,' where the aggressor continues fire while the victim is expected to cease.
- ❖US claims of 'unprovoked' attacks are absurd, often preceded by American actions, demonstrating a disregard for international law.
- ❖US 'negotiations' with Iran are performative, designed to manipulate capital markets and oil prices, not achieve genuine agreements.
- ❖Donald Trump's 'maximum pressure' policy on Iran has failed, leading to Iran's nuclear weapon development and regime 'calcification.'
- ❖Gulf allies like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are refusing to facilitate US military operations, signaling a desire for post-war relationships with Iran without American military presence.
- ❖The 263-year Anglo-American naval hegemony and rules-based order are dead, replaced by an era of maritime anarchy where Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz.
- ❖Israel's leadership, particularly Netanyahu, is driven by 'malignant narcissism' and is leading the state towards self-destruction through endless wars and regional alienation.
- ❖China is strategically gaining influence by rejecting US sanctions, expanding trade, and investing in renewable energy and infrastructure connecting to Iran, while the US wobbles.
- ❖The US military faces low morale and discontent, potentially leading to a 'tipping point' against current leadership and policies.
Insights
1US-Iran Conflict: A Phony Ceasefire and Market Manipulation
The current state of US-Iran relations is a 'ceasefire with Israeli characteristics,' where the US attacks Iranian tankers and shore installations while claiming 'unprovoked' Iranian actions. Negotiations are performative, designed to manipulate capital markets and oil prices, with billions made by shorting oil based on false hopes of breakthroughs. The US policy of 'maximum pressure' through coercion has failed, pushing Iran towards nuclear weapon development and hardening its regime.
Iranian foreign ministry condemning US actions on oil tankers and coastal areas; US CENTCOM statement calling Iranian attack 'unprovoked' despite prior US attacks; appointment of an avowed anti-negotiation Zionist as deputy negotiator; intelligence community report on Iran's intact missile inventory and drone supply; $900 million in short positions on crude oil placed minutes before a report on a US-Iran MOU.
2End of Anglo-American Naval Hegemony and International Law
International law, including the UN Charter, Geneva Conventions, and Law of the Sea, holds no status in American foreign policy. Iran's assertion of control over the Strait of Hormuz, though a violation of international law, is a direct consequence of the US's own disregard for these rules. This marks the end of 263 years of Anglo-American dominance over the seas and the rules-based order, ushering in an era of maritime anarchy where powers like Iran and China can defend their shores at great distances.
US non-ratification of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea; historical context of British (1763, 1805) and US (1943) naval hegemony; increased range of modern missiles (2,000 km) making traditional territorial limits obsolete; American warships kept at 300 km distance from Iran due to missile range.
3Gulf States Distance from US, Seek Post-War Iran Relations
American client states in the Gulf, particularly Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, are refusing to facilitate US military operations (e.g., 'Project Freedom') and denying use of their bases or airspace. This indicates ongoing quiet communications with Iran to work out post-war relationships that would exclude an American military presence on their territory. This shift is welcomed by China, which prefers diplomatic solutions for energy security over military means.
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait refusing to facilitate 'Project Freedom' due to lack of consultation and harm to their interests; Gulf Arabs (excluding UAE) communicating with Iran to establish post-war relationships.
4Israel's Self-Delegitimization and Declining Foreign Support
Israel's actions, particularly the 'genocide in Gaza,' are leading to its profound self-delegitimization internationally. Its leadership, exemplified by Netanyahu's 'malignant narcissism,' prioritizes personal power and expansionist goals over the country's long-term security. This has resulted in the decay of foreign support, the dissolution of NATO over the Gaza issue, and widespread anti-Israeli and anti-American sentiment in Europe.
HAARETZ article 'Netanyahu will go, but the state will die with him'; Israel's failure to make friends in the region; 'genocide in Gaza' being livestreamed; international law (genocide convention) being ignored; NATO splitting (Spain breaking, Italy/Germany public opinion against Israel/US); only 17% of Germans having a favorable view of Israel.
5China's Strategic Gains Amidst Global Instability
While the US-led global order collapses, China is solidifying its position as a dominant economic and technological force. It openly defies US sanctions against Iran and Russia, supports its refineries, and expands tariff-free trade in Africa. China is investing heavily in renewable energy, pipeline infrastructure (e.g., Power of Siberia, Iran connections), and technological superiority, leading 66 out of 74 innovation categories.
Chinese government supporting refineries working with Iran/Russia against US sanctions; China raising fuel prices for conservation; China's leadership in alternative energy (solar, wind, nuclear); plans for Power of Siberia gas pipeline and railroad/pipeline to Iran; Australian Strategic Policy Institute report on China leading 66 of 74 tech innovation categories.
Bottom Line
The US's abandonment of international law and its 'maximum pressure' tactics have inadvertently empowered adversaries and alienated allies, accelerating the decline of its global influence.
This creates a vacuum in global governance, leading to increased regional conflicts and a 'dark age' of anarchy where force, not law, dictates international relations.
For non-aligned nations, this presents an opportunity to forge new alliances and economic partnerships outside the traditional US-led framework, leveraging powers like China for stability and development.
Israel's current leadership is actively destroying its own long-term security and international legitimacy through expansionist and aggressive policies.
This could lead to the eventual collapse of the state of Israel as currently constituted, creating profound instability and a humanitarian crisis for the Jewish people.
A future, more moderate Israeli leadership might find an opportunity to rebuild relationships based on peace and mutual respect, but only after a fundamental shift away from current policies.
Key Concepts
Ceasefire with Israeli Characteristics
A term used to describe a situation where an aggressor reduces fire but continues to attack, while the victim is expected to cease fire entirely, creating a one-sided and ineffective 'ceasefire.'
Oderint dum metuant (Let them hate us, so long as they fear us)
Caligula's policy, applied to Donald Trump's 'maximum pressure' approach, where coercion and fear are prioritized over diplomacy and seeking common ground, ultimately proving ineffective.
Solipsism
A philosophical theory that the world exists only in one's head, used to describe leaders like Donald Trump who live in an 'alternative universe' where wishful thinking dictates reality, ignoring actual consequences.
Hubris leading to Nemesis (Greek Tragedy)
The concept that overweening pride and blindness to consequences lead to inevitable doom, applied to Israel's current leadership and its actions in the region.
Lessons
- Re-evaluate investment strategies in the Middle East, recognizing the instability caused by the collapse of international law and the shifting allegiances of Gulf states.
- Monitor the decline of US naval hegemony and the rise of regional powers' anti-access/area denial capabilities, which will impact global shipping and trade routes.
- Consider the long-term implications of the US's 'maximum pressure' and unilateral foreign policy for the stability of international alliances and the global economy.
Notable Moments
The host reads an official Iranian foreign ministry announcement condemning US actions against oil tankers and coastal areas, followed by a powerful Iranian response.
This sets the immediate context of the conflict, demonstrating the direct military exchanges and the Iranian perspective on US aggression, framing the 'ceasefire' as non-existent.
Ambassador Freeman introduces the concept of a 'ceasefire with Israeli characteristics' to describe the ongoing conflict.
This term succinctly captures the one-sided nature of the conflict, where Israel (and by extension, the US) continues aggression while expecting the other side to halt, highlighting the hypocrisy and ineffectiveness of such 'ceasefires.'
Freeman details how Saudi Arabia and Kuwait refused US requests to use their bases and airspace for 'Project Freedom' against Iran.
This is a concrete example of Gulf allies distancing themselves from the US, indicating a significant shift in regional alliances and a weakening of American military projection capabilities in the Persian Gulf.
Freeman cites a HAARETZ article titled 'Netanyahu will go, but the state will die with him,' to underscore Israel's internal and external challenges.
This highlights a critical perspective from within Israel itself, suggesting that current leadership's policies are existential threats to the state, not just political missteps.
Quotes
"What we have is what I call a ceasefire with Israeli characteristics. That means that the aggressor reduces fire but continues to fire while the victim is supposed to cease fire."
"Not talking is also a form of communication and negotiation."
"International law, uh, now has no status at all in American foreign policy."
"The 263 years of Anglo-American dominance over the seas and the rules-based order imposed by the Anglo-American hegemony is dead."
"Reality is that which when you cease to believe in it doesn't go away."
"Israel by its behavior is delegitimizing itself so thoroughly that when Netanyahu goes... the state is also likely to go."
Q&A
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