Prof. Ted Postol: Iran Already Achieved NUCLEAR DETERRENCE Against Israel

Iran has spent decades developing a sophisticated asymmetric warfare strategy, characterized by extensive underground facilities for air defense interceptors, missile launchers, and manufacturing. This strategy anticipates initial heavy damage to exposed assets but aims to maintain a persistent threat through intermittent ambushes. They leverage acoustic and optical sensors to cue radars at the last second, making it difficult for advanced aircraft to detect incoming threats, thus forcing pilots into cautious, less effective operations.

Images of underground tunnels filled with air defense interceptors; the F-15 incident where an American jet was shot down; the strategy of keeping air defenses protected and only deploying them for 'targets of opportunity.'

Israel has made a significant strategic error by extensively using Iron Dome interceptors against ballistic missiles, against which the system is largely ineffective. This depletion of interceptors leaves them vulnerable to drone and cruise missile attacks, for which Iron Dome is highly effective. Postol suggests this blunder stems from Israel becoming 'victims of their own propaganda,' feeling compelled to fire interceptors for political or perceptual reasons despite their inefficacy against ballistic threats.

Observation of multiple interceptors fired at single ballistic missiles with no visible hits; the high effectiveness of Iron Dome against drones and cruise missiles; the argument that interceptors should have been saved for the 'drone war.'

The widespread availability of commercial satellite communication systems, such as Starlink, has profoundly changed drone warfare. Drones equipped with these terminals can send real-time video feeds to operators, allowing for precise, first-person viewing (FPV) control and last-second targeting adjustments. This significantly increases the 'killing efficiency' of drones, making them extraordinarily effective at causing damage to specific, high-value targets like radars and critical infrastructure. This technology is difficult to control or embargo due to its commercial ubiquity.

Drones with two-way communication sending video via Starlink satellites; operators making final adjustments to hit targets; the comparison to cell phones in the Iraq War as ubiquitous, uncontrollable commercial tech.

Iran's strategy is systematically dismantling Israel's early warning and air defense capabilities. By targeting radars with precision drones, fewer operational radars remain, leading to a collapse of warning times for incoming attacks. This forces the population to constantly seek shelter, impacting societal well-being and military base operations. The lack of bunkers and adequate close-in air defenses at Israeli military bases further exacerbates their vulnerability.

Evidence of lost Greenpine radars; increasing instances of attacks without warning; the necessity for continuous sheltering due to lack of warning; the absence of bunkers and close-in air defenses at Israeli military bases.

Postol asserts that Iran has achieved nuclear deterrence, implying they possess or can rapidly develop nuclear weapons. He warns that any US or Israeli escalation, particularly a nuclear strike, would lead to the destruction of Israel as a nation-state. Furthermore, such a conflict would likely disrupt global oil and fertilizer production in Southwest Asia, leading to worldwide starvation and an 'Armageddon' scale catastrophe.

The statement 'Iran unambiguously has the ability to and the resolve to respond in kind to any escalation'; the prediction that 'Israel will cease to exist' if nuclear escalation occurs; the discussion of 10-11 nuclear weapons being sufficient to destroy Israel; the global impact of losing oil and fertilizer production.