Alastair Crooke: Iran Was Ready for This War… And It Could Change the Middle East Forever
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Reports of the assassination of Iran's National Security Council head, Ali Larijani, are unconfirmed but could lead to a harder-line replacement, mirroring past Israeli actions that backfired.
- ❖A significant psychological shift is occurring in Israel, with serious figures questioning the war's success, and in the US, where anxiety about the war's purpose and an 'unseen power structure' is growing.
- ❖Iran's populace has unified, exhibiting a 'spirit of resistance' and steadfastness against attacks, defying expectations of internal opposition.
- ❖Iran's asymmetrical military doctrine, developed since 2003, involves burying infrastructure, dispersing autonomous command structures, and utilizing advanced naval drones and speedboats.
- ❖Iran's 'gating' of the Strait of Hormuz is causing Western economic concerns (inflation, high gas prices) but has not significantly impacted China, which prepared strategically and is reorienting its trade.
- ❖Iran's strategic objectives include ending the cycle of conflict, achieving full sanctions relief, removing US bases from the region, and establishing its leadership in Persian Gulf security.
- ❖European nations like the UK and Germany are reluctant to join a US-led coalition against Iran, indicating a divergence from US foreign policy.
Bottom Line
An 'unseen power structure' appears to influence US foreign policy, driving decisions like the war with Iran that seem 'patently stupid' and against American interests, leading to public questioning of who controls American destiny.
This suggests a deep, non-transparent influence on critical geopolitical decisions, potentially overriding political instincts and public interest, and creating a sense of public disillusionment.
For analysts and policymakers, understanding and exposing this 'invisible' structure is crucial for re-evaluating US foreign policy and promoting genuinely national interest-driven decisions.
Lessons
- Policymakers should re-evaluate the effectiveness of conventional military force and economic sanctions against adversaries employing sophisticated asymmetrical warfare doctrines.
- Businesses reliant on global shipping, particularly through critical choke points like the Strait of Hormuz, must diversify supply chains and assess geopolitical risks to mitigate potential disruptions.
- Analysts should monitor shifts in public sentiment and internal political dynamics within key nations (Israel, Iran, US) as these can significantly impact the trajectory and resolution of conflicts.
Notable Moments
Alastair Crooke highlights the reported assassination of Ali Larijani and its potential counterproductive effects, drawing parallels to the assassination of Hezbollah's Mousawi which led to Nasrallah.
This illustrates a recurring pattern in Israeli strategy that often backfires, potentially escalating conflicts by replacing moderate figures with more hardline ones, thereby complicating future negotiations and de-escalation efforts.
Crooke describes a profound psychological shift in Iran, where the populace, including former opposition, has unified into a 'spirit of resistance' against US and Israeli actions.
This unity indicates that external pressure and attacks are strengthening, rather than weakening, the Iranian regime's internal support, undermining strategies based on inciting internal dissent or regime change.
Crooke details Iran's asymmetrical warfare strategy, including deeply buried, autonomously operated military infrastructure and advanced naval drones, designed to counter superior air and naval power.
This reveals a fundamental re-imagining of military doctrine that renders traditional Western 'shock and awe' tactics ineffective, forcing a re-evaluation of military superiority and conflict resolution strategies.
Quotes
"Israel always assumes, you know, um that killing people who they think are not in pro-Israeli is a sort of uh necessary function. But it often um if you like, um you know, uh is counterproductive."
"There is a sort of resilience. A uh and a sort of steadfastness in people. You see it. Something happens, an explosion goes off when there are crowds in the street, and people don't move. They just stay there."
"The aim is to make it impossible for anyone to contemplate another war with Iran after this. This one should be sufficiently persuasive that there will not be another follow-up war."
"Bombing has been, you know, the stand-to resort, the sort of um automatic resort of the of the West during this period, but it's never brought about the objectives that they looked for from it."
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