Larry C. Johnson & Col. Larry Wilkerson: The New Axis? Russia, Iran War Shield & China’s WARNING
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖US attempts to bully Iran into negotiations failed, as Iran refused preconditions on ballistic missiles and regional support.
- ❖The US naval 'armada' deployed near Iran is significantly smaller and positioned too far offshore for effective Tomahawk missile use, making it a limited and vulnerable force.
- ❖US aircraft carriers are increasingly obsolete against modern anti-ship and hypersonic missiles, with a high risk of being sunk in a conflict.
- ❖Russia and China are conducting pre-planned joint naval exercises in the region and are coordinating closely on geopolitical responses, including potential US attacks on Iran.
- ❖China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) is a digital, superior alternative to SWIFT, signaling a move towards a new financial order.
- ❖Xi Jinping explicitly stated China's intent to make the Renminbi a global reserve currency, challenging the US dollar's dominance.
- ❖A US official admitted to intentionally creating a dollar shortage in Iran to trigger protests, which is framed as an act of war.
- ❖Iranian public sentiment is increasingly in favor of developing nuclear weapons as a deterrent against US aggression.
- ❖The Epstein scandal's ongoing revelations could pressure Trump to initiate a diversionary war to shift public attention.
Insights
1US Coercion Fails, Iran Refuses Preconditions
The US attempted to force Iran into negotiations by demanding concessions on ballistic missiles and support for regional groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran rejected these preconditions, leading US officials to express 'surprise' at their refusal. This indicates a fundamental misunderstanding by the US of Iran's resolve and negotiating position.
Larry Johnson states, 'The US attempt to bully Iran back into saying okay you got to talk you got to give up ballistic missiles... and Iran said okay no talks and then according to Axios the US officials were surprised.'
2US Naval 'Armada' is a Diminished and Vulnerable Force
The current US naval deployment, dubbed an 'armada,' consists of fewer ships (one carrier, three destroyers) compared to previous operations. These ships are reportedly kept a thousand miles offshore, limiting the range of their Tomahawk missiles and rendering them ineffective against Iranian targets. Experts warn that modern anti-ship and hypersonic missiles make aircraft carriers highly vulnerable, risking significant loss of life and equipment.
Larry Johnson details, 'This current mighty armada is one aircraft carrier, three destroyers. That's it.' He adds, 'they're keeping that the the naval force about a thousand miles offshore... the Tomahawk missile can only travel a thousand miles.' Colonel Wilkerson states, 'This technology on the kill the carrier side has progressed a lot further than the carriers defenses... We might lose a carrier.'
3Russia and China Coordinate Against US Hegemony
Russia and China are actively coordinating their geopolitical strategies, including pre-planned joint naval exercises in the region and high-level discussions between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. Their collaboration extends to bolstering Iran's defenses and developing alternative financial systems to challenge the US dollar's global dominance.
Larry Johnson mentions, 'Russian and Chinese naval flotilla warships that are are in route to the area. This is pre-planned... to conduct their joint annual military exercise.' He also notes, 'Shiin Ping and Vladimir Putin had an hour and 25 minute conference call... they're both solidly committed to playing the role the dominant role in the world... and really helping create... a new financial order.'
4China's CIPS System Challenges SWIFT, Renminbi as Reserve Currency
China has developed the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), a digital alternative to SWIFT, which is described as significantly more efficient. Xi Jinping has also explicitly stated China's ambition to establish the Renminbi as a global reserve currency, signaling a direct challenge to the US dollar's role in international finance.
Colonel Wilkerson quotes Xi Jinping: 'We are going to make the rameni a global reserve currency.' Larry Johnson explains CIPS: 'It is a digital competitor to swift in fact I can't even call it a competitor because it runs circles around swift.'
5US Economic Sanctions are an Act of War, Fueling Iranian Nuclear Ambition
A US official, Scott Pessant, openly admitted that the US intentionally created a dollar shortage in Iran, leading to currency collapse, inflation, and public protests. This economic warfare is viewed by analysts as an act of war. This aggressive US posture is paradoxically strengthening the resolve within Iran, including among its populace and potentially its leadership, to develop nuclear weapons as the ultimate deterrent.
Scott Pessant states, 'What we have do is have done is created a dollar shortage in the country... The central bank had to print money. The Iranian currency went into freefall. Inflation exploded and hence we have seen the Iranian people out on the street.' Larry Johnson responds, 'What he's admitted to is the United States has committed an act of war against Iran.' Colonel Wilkerson notes, 'Iran made a mistake. It should have developed a nuclear weapon.'
Bottom Line
The US's 'virtual embassy' in Tehran issuing a warning for Americans to leave Iran could be a genuine precursor to military action or a psychological operation to create an impression of imminent strike.
This ambiguity creates uncertainty and could be used to manipulate perceptions or justify future actions, regardless of actual intent. It highlights the use of information warfare alongside conventional military posturing.
Analysts and foreign policy observers should scrutinize such warnings for patterns and differentiate between genuine threats and psychological operations, as they can indicate shifts in diplomatic or military intent.
The ongoing Epstein scandal, with its potential to implicate high-profile US figures, might serve as a powerful incentive for the Trump administration to initiate a diversionary war.
This suggests that domestic political pressures and personal scandals could significantly influence US foreign policy decisions, potentially leading to irrational or desperate military actions abroad.
Understanding the interplay between domestic political vulnerabilities and foreign policy decisions is crucial for predicting geopolitical flashpoints and assessing the true motivations behind international actions.
Opportunities
Global Digital Interbank Payment System (CIPS-like)
Develop and promote a highly efficient, digital cross-border interbank payment system that significantly outperforms legacy systems like SWIFT in speed, cost, and reliability. This system would cater to nations and entities seeking alternatives to dollar-denominated transactions and Western-controlled financial infrastructure.
Non-Dollar Commodity Trading Platforms
Create trading platforms and financial instruments that facilitate the exchange of critical commodities (e.g., oil, gas, minerals) in non-dollar denominated currencies, particularly the Renminbi or a basket of emerging market currencies. This capitalizes on the global shift away from dollar hegemony and the desire for financial independence.
Key Concepts
Theater of the Absurd
Larry Johnson uses this to describe the current state of US foreign policy and military posturing, where actions lack logical coherence or realistic outcomes, often leading to unintended and self-defeating consequences. This applies to the US's 'armada' and its economic sanctions against Iran.
Banana in the Tailpipe
Used by Larry Johnson to illustrate Iran's learned caution. After being 'sucker punched' by US-backed attacks following previous negotiations, Iran is no longer naive and will not fall for similar diplomatic traps, entering talks with 'eyes wide open'.
Lessons
- Monitor the development and adoption of non-SWIFT payment systems like China's CIPS, as their growth indicates a fundamental shift in global financial infrastructure and potential for new investment opportunities.
- Evaluate geopolitical risk in the Middle East by considering the diminished efficacy of US military power and the increased coordination between Russia, China, and Iran, rather than relying on traditional assessments of US dominance.
- Assess the long-term implications of the Renminbi's rise as a potential global reserve currency, and consider diversifying financial holdings or trade strategies to account for a multi-currency world.
Quotes
"This is not about nuclear weapons or uranium enrichment, this is all about regime change. The West does not give a damn in in in reality that thinking it has to fix eliminate the the the non-existent nuclear threat. This is about getting rid of the Islamic Republic, exterminating it. That's what this is about."
"This technology on the kill the carrier side has progressed a lot further than the carriers defenses, subsurface, surface, and air have advanced. So, one of the things someone probably whispered in Trump's ear was, 'We might lose a carrier.'"
"We are going to make the rameni a global reserve currency... We are industrial a capitalistic industrial and economic power second to none. The way to get to the top is to develop a financial system and then that reserve currency for the remi is part of that."
"What we have do is have done is created a dollar shortage in the country... The Iranian currency went into freefall. Inflation exploded and hence we have seen the Iranian people out on the street."
"America just refuses to look in the mirror and realize that we we are not a force for good in the world. We're a force for evil, for death, for destruction."
Q&A
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