Trump Wants to Invent a Fake Reality (w/ Anne Applebaum) | The Bulwark Podcast
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Viktor Orban systematically dismantled Hungary's democratic institutions, media, and judiciary over 16 years to ensure perpetual power.
- ❖Orban's regime uses 'post-reality' disinformation, including AI-generated videos and false flag operations, to create imaginary enemies and threats.
- ❖The American far-right, including JD Vance and Project 2025, explicitly models its strategies on Orban's authoritarian playbook.
- ❖Trump's foreign policy lacks 'object permanence,' treating international relations as a performance and failing to connect actions with long-term consequences.
- ❖The 'madman theory' of negotiation, relying on perceived irrationality, has reached its limits and is failing in complex geopolitical situations like the Iran conflict.
- ❖The US Agency for Global Media (USAGM) is suffering from severe mismanagement and legal challenges under Carrie Lake's leadership, wasting hundreds of millions of dollars.
Insights
1Orban's Authoritarian Blueprint and US Replication
Viktor Orban systematically transformed Hungary into an illiberal democracy over 16 years by altering the constitution, electoral system, and capturing state institutions like the judiciary, bureaucracy, and media. His regime created a corrupt, nepotistic system, using oligarchic companies to control 20-30% of the economy. This model, particularly his assault on universities and DEI, is explicitly copied by the American far-right, including Project 2025 and JD Vance.
Orban 'set out changing the Hungarian political system. He had a he he he played around with the constitution. He changed the way voting works and he slowly took over all the institutions of the Hungarian state.' (-) 'Many of what much of Project 2025 is is based on the experience of Orban. The Trump administration's assault on universities and DEI a lot of that comes from Orban as well.' (-)
2Hungary's 'Post-Reality' Election Campaign
Facing a serious challenger, Peter Maguar, Orban's Fidesz party is running a campaign entirely detached from reality. It avoids discussing real issues like the stagnant economy or failing healthcare, instead fabricating an 'evil enemy' – Ukraine. This involves large posters of Zelenskyy with menacing slogans and AI-generated videos depicting him snorting cocaine or Hungarian soldiers being shot by Ukrainians. False flag operations, like seizing a Ukrainian bank truck or claiming explosives on a pipeline, are used to create fake incidents and fear.
The campaign 'is not even about Hungary. The campaign is seeking to create an evil enemy that the Hungarians should be very very afraid of. And believe it or not, that enemy is Ukraine.' (-) 'There are these AI videos of Zalinski snorting cocaine on a golden toilet or Hungarian soldiers being shot in the head by presumably, I don't know, Ukrainian snipers.' (-)
3Trump's Disregard for Alliances and Strategic Coherence
Trump's approach to foreign policy is characterized by a lack of 'object permanence' and strategic thinking. He insults allies, imposes tariffs, and makes threats (e.g., against Greenland, NATO) without understanding or caring about the long-term consequences. This transactional view, treating international relations like a reality TV show, has alienated European allies who remember past slights and see no value in supporting an unpredictable leader, especially in unpopular conflicts like the Iran war.
Trump 'no longer seems to connect the events of one day with the next day and when he and you know in what he says he doesn't he acts like it won't have any impact.' (-) 'The Danes got ready for for a variety of reasons, public and private statements made by Trump. They got ready. They were prepared for an American invasion.' (-)
4The Failure of 'Madman Theory' in Iran
The 'madman theory,' where Trump's perceived irrationality was supposed to force adversaries to concede, has failed in the Iran conflict. Despite Trump's threats, Iran did not buckle, leading to a 'unilateral ceasefire' where only Washington abides by terms. The situation has destabilized the region, made Gulf states more vulnerable, and allowed Iran to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz. This demonstrates the limits of a strategy that lacks clear objectives, diplomatic engagement, and understanding of geopolitical implications.
Andrew Edgar's newsletter: 'Somehow Trump and his supporters insist that his threats to Iran are supposed to exist in some mythical space where we on our side are permitted to discount them as not real. But they on their side are expected to take them deadly seriously.' (-) 'The US would effectively seed its role as guarantor of global maritime navigation rights.' (-)
5Mismanagement of US Global Media by Carrie Lake
Carrie Lake, appointed to lead the US Agency for Global Media (USAGM), has presided over a 'disastrous ship.' Initially seeking self-promotion, she then attempted to dismantle the agency, which oversees critical outlets like Voice of America and Radio Free Europe. Her actions, including illegal firings and contract breaches, have led to lawsuits, judicial orders for reinstatement, and hundreds of millions of dollars in wasted funds. Her legal authority for the position is also in question.
Carrie Lake has run really a disastrous um ship. So she was she was put in charge of the US agency for global media... she decided actually her job was to destroy the whole thing.' (-) 'She started losing um lawsuits... has wasted hundreds of millions of dollars in doing this.' (-)
Bottom Line
The failure of the 'madman theory' in the Iran conflict risks a permanent shift in global maritime navigation rights, potentially emboldening China to test similar blockades in contested waterways like Taiwan.
This could fundamentally alter global trade routes and power dynamics, challenging the US's historical role as a guarantor of open seas and increasing the likelihood of future conflicts.
For US foreign policy, this highlights the need to re-establish credible, strategically coherent diplomacy and alliances to counter rising authoritarian influence and ensure global stability, rather than relying on unpredictable threats.
Key Concepts
Post-Reality Politics
A political strategy where objective facts are replaced by manufactured narratives, disinformation, and false flag operations to create an alternate reality that serves the ruling party's agenda, often by inventing external threats or enemies.
Madman Theory
A foreign policy strategy where a leader attempts to make adversaries believe they are irrational and unpredictable, thereby inducing them to concede to demands out of fear of extreme actions. The episode suggests this theory is failing due to its inherent limitations and the leader's actual lack of strategic depth.
Object Permanence (Political Context)
The concept, borrowed from developmental psychology, describes a political leader's inability to recognize that events and relationships continue to exist and have consequences even when not immediately perceived or actively engaged with. This leads to a transactional, short-sighted approach to governance and international relations.
Lessons
- Actively scrutinize political narratives for 'post-reality' elements, particularly those creating fabricated threats or enemies, to avoid being swayed by deliberate disinformation campaigns.
- Support and advocate for policies that strengthen democratic institutions, media independence, and judicial integrity, recognizing that these are direct targets of authoritarian-leaning movements.
- Demand strategic coherence and respect for international alliances from political leaders, understanding that a transactional and unpredictable foreign policy can destabilize global security and undermine national interests.
Notable Moments
Discussion of Orban's 'zebras in the garden' as a symbol of dictatorial excess and corruption.
This vivid anecdote humanizes the scale of corruption and personal enrichment under Orban's authoritarian rule, making the abstract concept of kleptocracy tangible.
The revelation that a US Pentagon official invoked the 14th-century Avignon Papacy to threaten the Pope's ambassador.
This illustrates an extreme level of arrogance, historical ignorance, and a complete misunderstanding of diplomatic influence within the Trump administration, highlighting a dangerous shift in US foreign relations tactics.
Quotes
"Many of what much of Project 2025 is is based on the experience of Orban. The Trump administration's assault on universities and DEI, a lot of that comes from Orban as well. They saw him do it and they're copying it."
"The campaign is not even about Hungary. The campaign is seeking to create an evil enemy that the Hungarians should be very, very afraid of. And believe it or not, that enemy is Ukraine."
"Western civilization as far as I'm concerned is... the history of democracy... of more inclusive politics... Russia and China and Iran are trying to destroy... democratic civilization is also western civilization."
"He literally either doesn't is incapable of making that connection or like that type of attitude has worked for him for so long that he just assumes that that work and everyone will bend to his will and everyone is kind of like him in a way that..."
"It's impossible that he doesn't understand that, but he he genuinely doesn't."
Q&A
Recent Questions
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