Larry Johnson: Iran Fires on 3 US Ships – US Bombs Qeshm – FLAMES OF WAR IGNITE

Larry Johnson asserts the US and Iran are headed for full-scale war, dismissing any notion of a negotiated settlement. He notes the war has been ongoing since February 28th, with recent US actions against tankers in the Gulf of Oman provoking Iranian retaliation.

Johnson states, 'Well, we're headed back to full-scale war. There's no not going to be a negotiated settlement.' He mentions the war has been ongoing since February 28th, and recent US actions against two vessels in the Gulf of Oman are provoking retaliation.

The conflict is severely disrupting global commodity supplies. Approximately 32% of global oil, 20% of global LNG (primarily from Qatar), 44% of global sulfur, and 33% of global helium (US and Qatar being largest producers) come from the Persian Gulf. These disruptions are impacting industries from fertilizer production to semiconductor manufacturing.

Johnson cites research indicating 'roughly 32% of the global oil supply comes out of the Persian Gulf.' He details Qatar's role as the principal producer of LNG (20% of global supply) and a major source of helium (after the US). He also notes 44% of the world's sulfur supply, critical for phosphate fertilizer, metal ore processing, and semiconductor wafer cleaning, comes from the region.

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait denied the US permission to use their airbases for 'Project Freedom' operations against Iran, underscoring the limits of US influence. The UAE is seen as having made a 'very bad bet' by aligning with Israel and the US, making it vulnerable to Iranian strikes on targets like Dubai airport, Fujairah port, and Al Dhafra air base.

Johnson confirms NBC reports that 'the Saudis had denied US permission to use Prince air base to conduct any air operations against Iran.' He states the UAE has 'made a very very bad bet' by aligning with Israel and the US, predicting Dubai, Fujairah port, and Al Dhafra air base will be 'first one hit' by Iranian missiles.

Qatar is identified as a critical country due to its significant contributions to global LNG and helium supply. Its diplomatic route with Iran and potential decision to ask the US to close Al Udeid Air Base could signal Iran's victory in the conflict.

Johnson emphasizes Qatar's role as the 'principal producer of LG in the Persian Gulf' and the second-largest helium producer globally. He suggests, 'keep your eyes on Qatar to understand where the future of this conflict is headed because I foresee that Qatar could turn around to the United States and say hey get your bases they're closing Alouded goodbye... if that happens then well that'll be sort of the final sign that Iran has won the war.'

Financial markets are 'acting as if this is no big deal' despite the physical disruption of one-third of the world's oil supply and significant reductions in LNG, sulfur, and helium. This is attributed partly to market manipulation and a refusal by traders to acknowledge the severity of the situation.

Johnson states, 'the financial markets are acting as if this is no big deal and I would argue it's a huge deal.' He attributes this to 'manipulation of the markets' and 'ignorance among these very so-called sophisticated traders that they just refuse to sit down and look at the numbers.'

China, Russia, and Iran are actively building a new security architecture in the Persian Gulf, using consistent language and policy coordination. This aims to replace US dominance, with Qatar and Saudi Arabia as initial targets for inclusion.

Johnson notes that Putin and the Chinese foreign minister, Yang Wang Yi, both used the phrase 'security architecture' regarding the region. He explains, 'what China, Russia, Iran are going to be doing is building a new security architecture in the Persian Gulf. And I think one of the first ones they're going to work most focus on is Qatar, followed by Saudi Arabia.'

The US is 'disarming itself' by diverting weapon systems (like Tomahawks, JASMs, Pack 3, TAD interceptors) from Indo-Pacific Command (focused on China) to Central Command for the Iran conflict. China is also refusing to sell rare earth minerals to the US, which are essential for manufacturing these weapons.

Johnson states, 'weapon systems that were originally supposed to be in Indoaccom... are being stripped from Indopacecom and sent to central command Sentcom to be used in Iran.' He adds that the US 'needs rare earth minerals that come out of China and China is not selling them the rare earth minerals.'

Israel's military capabilities are exaggerated; it has been unable to defeat Hamas in Gaza or dislodge Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Its air defense system is deemed ineffective against Iranian ballistic and hypersonic missiles, suggesting it will suffer 'much more damage' in renewed conflict.

Johnson questions, 'have they been able to defeat Hamas and take full control of the Gaza Strip? No, they haven't.' He further states, 'they don't have an air defense system that is effective against Iranian ballistic missiles, particularly the hypersonic ones,' predicting Israel will 'suffer much more damage' in the next round.