These Democrats Are Breaking Through by Taking On Trump
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Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Midterm elections are historically difficult for the party holding the White House, with only two exceptions since WWII, both under presidents with 60%+ approval.
- ❖Recent Supreme Court rulings and Republican gerrymandering are significantly disadvantaging Democrats in House races, requiring a 3.9% popular vote margin to win.
- ❖Democrats are debating an 'asymmetric warfare' approach against Republican tactics, with some advocating for aggressive redistricting in states where they have control.
- ❖An 'anti-establishment moment' is prevalent across both parties, leading to voter jaundice against the status quo and a desire for leaders who address systemic corruption.
- ❖AOC's 'ambition is way bigger than a title' statement is seen as a powerful, authentic message, suggesting a focus on policy goals over positional power, potentially signaling a Senate run over a presidential bid.
- ❖Potential 2028 candidates are being evaluated on their communication, authenticity, and ability to connect with diverse voter groups, particularly working-class and minority voters.
- ❖The 2028 election could mirror 1976 (post-Watergate), favoring an outsider candidate who champions empathy, decency, honesty, and integrity.
- ❖Kamala Harris faces challenges from 'seared memories of 2024' and a perceived reluctance to engage authentically in high-stakes interviews, despite early polling leads based on name recognition.
Insights
1Democrats' Precarious Midterm Position
Historically, the party occupying the White House almost always loses seats in midterm elections, with only two exceptions since WWII (1998 and 2002), both under presidents with over 60% approval. With current low approval ratings for the President and significant Republican gerrymandering, Democrats face an uphill battle, needing to win the popular vote by nearly 4% just to secure the House.
Axelrod states, 'there have been 39 midterm elections since World War II. And the party that is in the White House has gained seats in two of those 39... they both had approval ratings in the 60s.' He also references Nate Cohn's estimate that 'Democrats need to win the popular vote by 3.9% to take the House with this map.'
2The Imperative for an Expanded Democratic Playbook
Given the 'asymmetric warfare' waged by Republicans, particularly regarding voter suppression and gerrymandering, Democrats must consider expanding their own playbook. While some tactics like changing judicial age limits are deemed too extreme, strategic redistricting in states where Democrats have control (e.g., Oregon, Colorado, Illinois, Maryland, Pennsylvania) is seen as a necessary defensive measure, despite a dislike for the practice.
Dan Pfeiffer mentions 'Hakeem Jeffries... saying we have to have a total warfare approach.' Axelrod agrees that 'if the other side is playing tackle, you can't play touch' and that 'redistrict to maximum advantage in 28 in the states where we can do that' is necessary.
3Anti-Establishment Sentiment Driving Primary Outcomes
The Maine Senate primary, where grassroots candidate Platner defeated establishment-backed Janet Mills, exemplifies a broader 'anti-establishment moment' in both parties. Voters are jaded by the status quo, perceiving the system as 'corrupt and rigged,' and are wary of 'gerontocracy' in Washington. This favors candidates who speak to and live the lives of unrepresented people.
Axelrod notes, 'I think we're in an anti-establishment moment... 70% of people in polling say the system is is is rigged is corrupt and rigged against them.' He attributes Mills' defeat to her being 'very much the establishment candidate' and the public's 'discontent people feel after two octogenarian presidents is with uh you know the gerontocracy in Washington.'
42028 Election: A Search for Authenticity and an Outsider
The 2028 presidential election is likely to resemble the 1976 post-Watergate election, where the country sought a 'cleansing' and a 'fresh start.' This environment will highly value qualities like empathy, decency, honesty, integrity, and humility – traits perceived as lacking in the current political climate. An outsider candidate willing to challenge Washington orthodoxy on behalf of working people will be well-received.
Axelrod states, 'what is this election most like? It goes back to... the election of 1976... people wanted to a cleansing... they wanted a fresh start.' He predicts 'empathy, decency, honesty, integrity, humility, all the qualities that Trump doesn't have are going to be prized in 2028' and 'being an outsider who's willing to really challenge orthodoxy in Washington... is going to be a candidate who's well received.'
Bottom Line
Trump's 'genius' lies in exposing hypocrisy, leading people to believe 'everybody has a price and rules and laws and norms and institutions are for suckers.' This makes it difficult for Democrats to adopt aggressive tactics without validating Trump's narrative that 'they're no better than I am.'
Democrats face a strategic dilemma: how to counter Republican rule-breaking without undermining their own stated commitment to institutions. This requires careful messaging to differentiate their actions (e.g., redistricting) from outright corruption, focusing on restoring fairness rather than just winning.
Democrats can leverage this by consistently highlighting Trump's corruption and the hypocrisy of those who enable him, while simultaneously demonstrating their own commitment to ethical governance and systemic reform, thus drawing a clear contrast and appealing to voters disillusioned by both extremes.
The Democratic Party's shift towards a 'metropolitan, college-educated party' risks alienating working-class voters by approaching them 'like missionaries and anthropologists' rather than as valued equals. This creates a disconnect where essential workers are lauded during crises but become 'invisible' afterwards.
This demographic shift requires Democrats to fundamentally re-evaluate how they communicate and demonstrate value to working-class communities. A message focused solely on 'affordability' without addressing deeper issues of respect and economic structure will likely fall short.
Candidates like Andy Beshear, who effectively express empathy and connect with diverse communities, offer a model. The opportunity lies in building genuine alliances with working-class and rural voters by demonstrating respect, understanding their concerns, and offering tangible solutions that value their contributions beyond rhetoric.
Key Concepts
Midterm Referendum
Midterm elections historically function as a referendum on the sitting president, making it difficult for the president's party to gain seats, especially with low approval ratings. This model suggests that local issues often get overshadowed by national sentiment towards the executive.
Asymmetric Warfare (Political)
Describes a political contest where one side (e.g., Republicans under Trump) operates outside traditional rules, laws, and norms, forcing the other side (Democrats) to adapt their playbook, potentially by adopting more aggressive or unconventional tactics like strategic redistricting.
Anti-Establishment Wave
A pervasive public sentiment of discontent with the political status quo and established institutions, leading to a preference for outsider candidates and a rejection of perceived 'gerontocracy' or 'inside the beltway politics' across both parties.
Doing vs. Being in Politics
A framework distinguishing politicians who are motivated by achieving specific policy goals ('doing something') from those primarily driven by acquiring titles or positions ('being something'). The 'doing' cohort is seen as more admirable and impactful, particularly in an anti-establishment climate.
Lessons
- Democrats should develop a 'bigger vision' for systemic reform, moving beyond just restoring the pre-Trump system, to address fundamental concerns about a 'corrupt and rigged' economy with 21st-century solutions.
- In states where Democrats control the redistricting process, they should strategically maximize their advantage to counter Republican gerrymandering, viewing it as a necessary defense in 'asymmetric warfare.'
- Democratic candidates, especially those aspiring for national office, must prioritize authenticity, empathy, and integrity in their communication, demonstrating a focus on 'doing something' for people rather than merely 'being something' (a title or position).
Notable Moments
Axelrod's comparison of the 2028 election to 1976, highlighting the public's desire for a 'cleansing' and a 'fresh start' after political turmoil.
This historical parallel provides a framework for understanding the current political mood and suggests that an outsider candidate embodying integrity and empathy could be particularly successful.
Discussion of AOC's viral answer about her ambition being 'way bigger' than a title, focusing on single-payer healthcare and workers' rights.
This moment exemplifies authentic communication and a focus on policy goals over personal ambition, qualities Axelrod identifies as crucial for future political leaders, and suggests a potential Senate run over a presidential one for AOC.
Axelrod's critique of the Democratic Party's approach to working-class voters, describing it as 'missionaries and anthropologists' who show up to 'help you become more like us.'
This highlights a fundamental disconnect in Democratic messaging and strategy, suggesting that a lack of genuine respect and understanding for working-class lives contributes to voter alienation, even when offering beneficial policies.
Quotes
"No matter how hard you try, they're always a referendum on the president and very rarely do you win in that because it's an opportunity for people who express their discontents."
"If the other side is playing tackle, you can't play touch."
"This is what Donald Trump really believes. He believes the world is the hunger games where the strong take what they want and the weak fall away and everybody has a price and rules and laws and norms and institutions are for suckers."
"My ambition is to change this country. Presidents come and go... single-payer healthcare is forever. A living wage is forever. Workers rights are forever. Women's rights, all of that."
"The world of politics divides in these into these two cohorts. The people who run because they want to be something... and then the smaller, more admirable, and the more impactful cohort are the people who run for office because they want to do something."
"My objection to Democrats since the Democratic Party has become a kind of metropolitan college educated party is we're still a party of working people or see us that way, see ourselves that way, but we approach them like missionaries and anthropologists and we show up and we say we're here to help you become more like us."
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