šØ BREAKING: Iranians Take CONTROL Of IRGC Police Stations - Revolution In Iran
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- āIranian citizens have maintained total control of streets in major cities for five days, capturing local police stations and government buildings.
- āProtests are strategically coordinated, involving barricading streets, diverting security forces, and targeting specific regime infrastructure.
- āThere is strong speculation, though unconfirmed, of covert Israeli intelligence (Mossad) providing logistical or informational support to protesters.
- āDefections from Iranian security forces, including the IRGC, are increasing, with some refusing to fight citizens and pledging allegiance to Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi.
- āThe regime's hesitation to implement a full, brutal crackdown is likely due to fear of international backlash and the scrutiny of leaders like Trump and Netanyahu.
- āInternet disruptions are less effective than in past protests, possibly due to external assistance like Starlink terminals or prepared infrastructure.
- āThe protests are fundamentally about regime change and ending 47 years of oppression, not merely economic grievances, as evidenced by chants for the Shah's return.
- āThe MEK (Mujahadin-e Khalq) lacks widespread Iranian support despite successful international lobbying efforts with Western politicians.
- āIran's historical context, educated populace, and economic potential make it distinct from Iraq or Afghanistan, suggesting a more stable post-regime change transition.
Insights
1Widespread Citizen Control and Strategic Coordination
Iranian citizens have taken total control of streets in almost every major city and town for five days, capturing local police stations and government buildings. Protesters are implementing sophisticated tactics like barricading streets to prevent security forces from entering certain areas and diverting forces to nearby cities. This level of organization suggests a planned, rather than purely spontaneous, uprising.
Host states 'total control of the streets in almost every city and town' (), 'managed to capture a number of local police stations' (). Guest notes protesters 'shut down almost every single street to keep the security forces from being able to enter certain areas' and are 'very calculated in how they're going about it, as well as targeting specific government buildings' (, ).
2Israeli Support and Covert Operations Speculation
There is significant Israeli public and official support for the Iranian people. While direct military intervention is not sought, many Israelis, including the guest, advocate for logistical or informational support from agencies like Mossad. The guest speculates that Mossad may already be active on the ground, given the sophisticated logistics of the protests, but such operations would remain unconfirmed for decades.
Emily Shrader mentions 'a lot of Israeli support for the Iranian people' and calls for 'logistical or informational support if possible' from agencies like Mossad (, ). She states, 'if Mossad is acting, you're not going to hear about it' but has 'suspicions about some of the actions' ().
3Increasing Defections from Security Forces
A growing number of Iranian security forces, including Basij members and even IRGC personnel, are defecting or refusing to engage protesters. This trend is partly influenced by calls from Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi for armed forces to join his platform, leading to iconic images of defectors being arrested by their colleagues and videos of IRGC members pledging allegiance to the Crown Prince.
Guest notes 'calls... from the protesters directly to the security forces telling them join us' () and 'an increasing number of those people' defecting due to Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi's calls (). An image of a defector sitting in the road is cited ().
4Regime's Hesitation to Crack Down
Despite the widespread unrest, the Islamic Republic has not yet implemented a full, brutal crackdown as seen in previous protests. This hesitation is attributed to the intense international scrutiny, particularly from figures like former President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu, who are closely monitoring the situation. The regime fears severe international consequences if they use overwhelming force.
Host questions why the regime 'should not allow any gathering' on day five (). Guest states, 'President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu definitely have a profound effect on the Islamic Republic right now' and 'they're afraid to crack down fully because everyone is looking at them' (, ).
5Internet Resilience and External Assistance
Unlike previous uprisings where the internet was quickly and completely shut down, the current protests are still able to send out footage despite slowdowns. This suggests that either internal resistance within the regime's communication infrastructure exists, or external entities have successfully smuggled in technology like Starlink terminals to maintain connectivity.
Host notes, 'it's interesting that they are still able to send out footage compared to previously' (). Guest speculates 'they successfully smuggled in more infrastructure Starlink terminals or other technology that can assist in expanding or strengthening signals' ().
6Regime Change, Not Economic Protest
The protests are fundamentally about regime change and ending decades of oppression, not merely economic grievances as often portrayed by Western media. Protesters' chants explicitly call for 'death to the dictator' and the return of the Shah, indicating a deep-seated desire to overthrow the Islamic Republic and reclaim Iran's pre-1979 history.
Guest states, 'this isn't an economic protest... this is about 47 years of oppression' (, ). She notes protesters are 'saying death to the dictator. They're saying they want a regime change. They're calling for the Sha to come back' ().
7Iran's Unique Post-Regime Change Potential
Claims that a post-regime change Iran would lead to instability similar to Iraq or Afghanistan are dismissed. Iran possesses a distinct history of self-governance, a highly educated populace (both men and women), a large economy, and abundant natural resources, suggesting it would not require the same 'handholding' and could transition to stable governance more effectively.
Guest argues against 'repeat of Iraq or... Afghanistan' by highlighting Iran's 'history... in terms of self-governance, in terms of advancement as a progressed society that's highly educated, both men and women' (, ). She contrasts Iran's 'largest market in the Middle East' and 'natural resources' with those countries (, ).
Bottom Line
The widespread, simultaneous uprisings across numerous small towns and even islands, coupled with sophisticated tactical coordination (e.g., diverting security forces), indicate a highly decentralized yet centrally informed network, potentially leveraging intelligence or operational support.
This suggests the Iranian regime faces a more complex and resilient threat than previous protests, as its security forces are stretched thin and unable to concentrate power effectively. The decentralized nature makes a swift, decisive crackdown difficult.
External actors or opposition groups could further empower this network by enhancing secure communication channels, providing intelligence on regime movements, and offering training in urban resistance tactics, accelerating the regime's paralysis.
The regime's unusual hesitation to employ full, brutal force, despite widespread loss of control, is likely driven by fear of international repercussions, particularly from the US and Israel, who have publicly signaled their attention.
This fear creates a window of opportunity for protesters to consolidate gains and for international pressure to be maintained or increased. It also indicates the regime's awareness of its precarious position and potential for external intervention if it acts too harshly.
International bodies and influential nations should continue to publicly monitor and condemn any brutal crackdowns, reinforcing the 'deterrence' effect. Covert support for protesters could be amplified during this period of regime indecision, without triggering direct military intervention.
The younger generation in Iran is actively 'doing their homework' on pre-Islamic revolution history, rediscovering the Persian Empire and the Pahlavi dynasty, despite the regime's efforts to erase this history from school curricula.
This historical re-engagement fuels a powerful, unifying nationalist sentiment that transcends economic grievances, providing a strong ideological foundation for regime change and a clear alternative vision for Iran's future, centered on its ancient heritage.
External cultural and educational initiatives could support this historical rediscovery, providing accessible, uncensored information about Iran's pre-1979 past. This strengthens the cultural and ideological underpinnings of the revolution, fostering a shared identity for a post-regime Iran.
Opportunities
Post-Revolution Land Investment in Iran
Invest in land and real estate in Iran immediately following a successful regime change. The currency is expected to collapse further initially, making assets extremely cheap for foreign investors with stronger currencies (USD, GBP, EUR). As the economy stabilizes and foreign investment flows in, land values are projected to appreciate significantly.
Lessons
- Maintain and increase international pressure on the Islamic Republic, highlighting human rights abuses and the true nature of the protests (regime change, not economic).
- Explore and support initiatives that provide secure internet connectivity and communication infrastructure to Iranian citizens (e.g., Starlink terminals, VPNs).
- Monitor and publicize defections within the Iranian security forces to encourage further desertions and weaken the regime's internal control.
Notable Moments
Protesters in Lorestan brought a trailer of bricks to throw at security forces, illustrating improvised resistance tactics.
This highlights the resourcefulness and determination of the protesters, using readily available materials as weapons against armed security forces, signifying a shift towards more aggressive self-defense.
An unmarked ambulance in Hamadan was exposed as carrying regime thugs, who were subsequently beaten by protesters.
This reveals the deceptive tactics employed by the regime, using civilian vehicles for covert operations, and the protesters' vigilance and willingness to confront these forces directly, even when disguised.
A mullah was filmed changing out of his clerical robes and turban into normal clothes in the middle of a motorway, seemingly to avoid being identified by protesters.
This symbolic act demonstrates the fear among regime-affiliated individuals and the widespread anti-clerical sentiment among the population, forcing religious figures to hide their identity in public spaces.
Quotes
"If Mossad is acting, you're not going to hear about it. You're not going to see it. You can suspect that it might be Mossad... but you're not going to know that it's Mossad for 20, 30, 40 years, if ever."
"This is exclusively the mission of the Iranian people. It is their country to reclaim. It is their country to determine what their future governance will be, not the state of Israel."
"This isn't an economic protest... this is about 47 years of oppression. Like, this is much broader. And if you listen to the chants, it's very clear. They're not saying, 'Oh, we want a better economic situation.' They're saying death to the dictator. They're saying they want a regime change. They're calling for the Sha to come back."
"The fact that the IRGC is still announced things and still conduct business as usual... It seems these riots will die like previous ones without real change."
"I mean, I think realistically you're going to see a crackdown on the Islamic Republic with or without these protests being successful."
Q&A
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