What Replaces the Ayatollahs in Iran? (w/ Christiane Amanpour) | How to Fix It

The Iranian regime effectively suppresses widespread uprisings through extreme violence, including automatic weapons fire by Basij forces, and sophisticated surveillance. This includes sending text messages to parents with photos of their children's cars at protest sites, demonstrating a high level of control and intimidation.

Amanpour recounts stories of automatic weapons fire, 'Kalashnikovs,' chains used to beat people, and the regime using surveillance technology (possibly Chinese-supplied) to track protesters' cars and send threatening messages to their families.

Israel has engaged in a prolonged 'shadow war' against Iran, targeting nuclear scientists, disrupting nuclear plants, and conducting military strikes on anti-aircraft systems and military bases. While these actions aim to contain or overthrow the regime, they have historically provoked a nationalist rallying effect among Iranians, strengthening support for the country, if not necessarily the Ayatollahs.

Amanpour details Israel's actions, including killing nuclear scientists, destroying parts of nuclear plants (e.g., Isfahan), and recent strikes (June) that 'took out huge amounts' of Iranian anti-aircraft and surveillance capabilities, hitting 'many if not all the military bases.' She notes that after these attacks, 'the Iranian people... rallied round, not necessarily the Ayatollah, but around their country.'

Past US military interventions aimed at regime change, particularly the Iraq War, serve as a cautionary tale. The 'de-Ba'athification' policy in Iraq, which fired military and police personnel, directly led to the formation of insurgencies like AQIM and ISIS, destabilizing the region for decades. This history makes any similar approach in Iran highly risky, as it could backfire by creating a new, more dangerous opposition.

Amanpour states, 'Iraq stands out as the huge one that failed so miserably... they just made such a balls up of it afterwards. They went debathification. They essentially destroyed the country.' She highlights how the US fired Iraqi Republican Guard and police who had laid down arms, leading them to form the insurgency.

Figures like Reza Pahlavi, son of the Shah, are touted as opposition leaders, but their credibility and effectiveness are hampered by a lack of internal organization and unity. While his name is known, particularly among younger generations and the diaspora, the absence of a cohesive, organized movement within Iran makes a successful transition difficult.

Amanpour notes that Pahlavi's name is 'shouted from the streets' but questions his 'capability' due to the need for 'an organization inside,' 'communication set up,' and 'unity,' which has been lacking even in the diaspora.

The 1953 CIA and British-backed coup that overthrew democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh and reinstated the Shah created a deep-seated distrust of Western intervention. This historical event is directly linked to the 1979 Iranian Revolution and continues to influence US foreign policy decisions, such as Obama's reluctance to explicitly support the Green Revolution, fearing it would undermine the opposition.

Amanpour describes the Mosaddegh coup as 'the beginning of American coups around the world' and states it 'can be traced to leading to the 1979 backlash which was the revolution.' The host also mentions it as a reason for Obama's non-intervention in the Green Revolution.