“F Around And Find Out” Trump Plans For Greenland, Iran & Venezuela | John Mearsheimer x Ian Bremmer

Ian Bremmer argues that the United States, under a Trump administration, is actively unwinding its own global order by rejecting previous commitments to free trade, collective security, and rule of law. This move towards unilateralism, characterized by high tariffs and transactional alliances, makes the US less reliable to its allies. This unreliability is prompting other nations, such as the EU and South American economies, to form new trade and defense agreements as a hedge against US unpredictability, potentially undermining America's long-term global position.

Bremmer cites the US's use of tariffs as a primary economic tool, higher than in almost a century, and the shift from promoting global free trade architecture (06:09). He notes the EU-Mercosur trade deal and India's efforts to form new trade partnerships as direct responses to US unilateralism (16:37).

John Mearsheimer describes Trump's foreign policy as employing military force 'liberally' but in a 'light' and 'quick' manner, avoiding getting bogged down. This approach focuses on 'regime change on the cheap' or 'decapitation' (removing leaders) without deploying boots on the ground or aiming to establish liberal democracies. The Venezuela operation, where the leader was 'snatched' and a more compliant vice president installed, is cited as an example of this strategy.

Mearsheimer states Trump has used military force against seven countries, 'in a remarkably liberal way' (31:34), and is 'deeply engaged in regime change' in Iran and Venezuela (32:11). He emphasizes Trump's disinterest in 'using boots on the ground' or 'creating a liberal democracy' post-intervention (32:39).

The discussion explores Trump's persistent interest in acquiring Greenland, not merely for 'vain glory,' but due to a perceived strategic necessity. One compelling argument suggests that if Greenland is not formally part of the United States, Russia and China might not take seriously the US's commitment to defend it under NATO. This argument is strengthened by the existing perception among NATO allies that the US is becoming less reliable.

Bremmer explains that the argument for owning Greenland is that 'the Russians and the Chinese would actually take seriously that the Americans would defend Greenland if it's not a part of the United States' (23:09). He notes this argument is 'made stronger by the fact that the United States is not as trusted or reliable by NATO allies because of precisely what Trump is doing' (23:35). Piers Morgan adds that 'money is good enough' for the 60,000 Greenlanders to accept a deal (25:32).

John Mearsheimer contends that the primary reason for the ongoing protests in Iran is the dire state of its economy, largely caused by American sanctions. He argues that without these sanctions, the protests would not be occurring, downplaying the role of the regime's human rights abuses and repressive policies as the 'major reason' for the uprisings.

Mearsheimer asserts, 'The major reason they've had enough is because of the state of the Iranian economy' (55:04) and 'We are principally responsible for driving these protests' through economic sanctions (55:21). He claims 'Had there been no American sanctions, there would be no protest today' (55:35).