"A Wall of Fire": Eyewitness View of an Attack in the Strait of Hormuz | Week 10 Recap
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Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The CMA CGM San Antonio container ship was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in eight injured crew members and significant damage to its engine room.
- ❖Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is drastically reduced, with many vessels operating without AIS transponders.
- ❖Iran's proposal to end the US blockade and gain control of the Strait of Hormuz was rejected by the US.
- ❖Reports indicate IRGC swarm activity and an oil spill near Car Island, raising concerns about sabotage or mechanical failure.
- ❖Multiple vessels, including the HMM Namu and the Iranian tanker Hazna, were targeted in separate attacks, some by uncrewed surface vessels or US Navy jets.
- ❖The US 'Project Freedom' to escort ships through Hormuz was quickly paused due to ongoing negotiations.
- ❖China has ordered its firms to defy US sanctions related to Iranian oil trade, escalating economic tensions.
Insights
1Direct Impact on Merchant Mariners: The CMA CGM San Antonio Attack
The container ship CMA CGM San Antonio was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting out of the Strait of Hormuz. The attack, believed to be by drones or missiles, caused significant damage to the engine room and injured eight crew members, with one severely wounded. A video from Ukrainian merchant mariners on board shows the aftermath, including charred control panels, blown-off doors, and the concussive force of the explosion, highlighting the extreme danger faced by civilian crews in the conflict zone.
Video and images obtained from a Ukrainian merchant mariner website, UK MTO report 055-26, and the host's detailed commentary on the damage and crew injuries.
2Drastically Reduced Shipping Traffic and 'Dark' Vessels
Official data from the Joint Maritime Information Center shows a severe reduction in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with several days recording zero transits. However, Winward AI's dashboard indicates multiple ships are still transiting by 'running dark' (not broadcasting AIS), suggesting a significant portion of maritime activity is attempting to evade detection due to the high-risk environment.
JipMick report showing 0-6 ships transiting daily from May 3rd-9th, contrasted with Winward AI's 'bluff' report detailing inbound bulk carriers with escorts and multiple VLCCs and oil tankers using northern and southern corridors.
3Iran's Rejected Peace Proposal and US 'Project Freedom' Pause
Iran proposed an end to the US blockade, freedom to export oil, a ceasefire in Lebanon, removal of US sanctions, Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, and unfreezing of Iranian assets. This proposal was immediately rejected by the US. Concurrently, the US initiated 'Project Freedom' to escort trapped ships through Hormuz but abruptly paused it after only a few days, reportedly due to ongoing negotiations in Pakistan.
Iran's news agency report on the proposal, President Trump's 'totally unacceptable' response, and reports on the quick end of 'Project Freedom' linked to negotiations.
4Diverse Attack Methods and Targets in the Gulf
The conflict involves various attack methods and targets. The HMM Namu, a South Korean ship, was hit by an uncrewed surface vessel, a common pattern seen in other conflicts. The Iranian tanker Hazna was strafed by a US Navy F-18 jet off the coast of Oman, and multiple other Iranian tankers at the port of Jas show damage from US strikes. Additionally, an unexpected incident involved Iran detaining the Chinese-owned Ocean Koi tanker, which was reportedly hauling Iranian oil, indicating internal inconsistencies or unpredictable actions within Iranian forces.
Photos of HMM Namu damage, reports of US Navy F-18 strafing the Hazna, satellite imagery from Tom Bike showing damaged tankers at Jas, and reports of the Ocean Koi detention.
Bottom Line
The naming of Iranian vessels, such as the tugboat 'Karen 5' and a VLCC named 'Huge,' suggests a deliberate attempt at mockery or internal humor amidst serious geopolitical tensions, potentially indicating a disconnect or subversive element within the naming conventions.
This seemingly trivial detail could reflect a subtle form of internal dissent, a coping mechanism, or even a deliberate psychological tactic, adding an unusual layer to the perception of Iranian maritime operations.
Analyzing such anomalies in official designations could provide insights into the morale, internal dynamics, or communication strategies of state-controlled entities in conflict zones, offering a non-traditional intelligence gathering vector.
The detention of the Chinese-owned Ocean Koi tanker by Iran, despite it reportedly carrying Iranian oil, suggests a potential breakdown in coordination or a rogue element within the IRGC, as it contradicts Iran's economic interests and its relationship with China.
This incident points to internal disarray or independent operations by factions within Iranian forces, potentially exacerbated by 'leadership decapitation,' leading to unpredictable and seemingly irrational actions that complicate the broader conflict dynamics.
Businesses and governments should be aware that Iranian actions may not always be centrally coordinated or strategically coherent, necessitating a more nuanced and adaptive risk assessment for maritime operations in the region.
Lessons
- Shipping companies must reassess risk profiles for transiting the Strait of Hormuz, considering the high likelihood of attacks on commercial vessels and the need for enhanced security measures.
- Mariners operating in high-risk zones should be trained in emergency response to projectile impacts and fires, as well as evasive maneuvers, given the direct threats to crew safety.
- Governments and international bodies need to address the plight of merchant mariners caught in geopolitical conflicts, advocating for their protection and establishing clear protocols for their safety and evacuation.
Notable Moments
The host presents a raw, translated video from the CMA CGM San Antonio, showing the aftermath of a missile or drone attack in the engine room, including charred equipment, blown-off doors, and the visible distress of the crew.
This moment provides a rare and visceral human perspective on the conflict, moving beyond abstract geopolitical analysis to show the immediate, life-threatening consequences for civilian mariners, making the dangers tangible.
Quotes
"If you give Iran control of the straight of Hormuz, I know there's a lot of other issues on there, but if you give Iran control of the straight of hormones, that's going to cause endless endless problems for the future."
"Most of the group didn't sign up to go work on the dark fleet. You don't go in a cruing office and say, 'I want to go work for the dark fleet.' That's not what you do. These mariners, most of them, wind up on these ships. They don't quite know. And then they're basically screwed."
"So when he says the wave came in, I it's not a wave of water, it's a wave of explosion. It's it's a concussive force that came in."
"for a crew of commercial merchant mariners. This had to be just absolute hell."
Q&A
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