Interviews 02
Interviews 02
June 29, 2026

Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar: Strait of Hormuz Traffic Plunges to Wartime Levels

YouTube · qNBja9HrZT8

Quick Read

Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar details how the Strait of Hormuz traffic has plummeted to wartime levels, revealing the US's alleged betrayal of the Iran MOU and its deepening, self-defeating military involvement in the Middle East for Israel's interests.
US is betraying its own MOU with Iran, refusing to release frozen assets and continuing military strikes.
Israel's incursions into Lebanon and Syria violate UN resolutions, with US support escalating regional conflict.
US plans to arm Lebanon against Hezbollah is a repeat of failed strategies, risking civil war and deeper US military entanglement.

Summary

Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar discusses the dramatic drop in Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic following recent conflicts, highlighting that the strait is 'controlled' by Iran, not 'closed,' and that the US distant blockade also significantly restricted passage. He argues that the United States has repeatedly betrayed the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Iran by not releasing frozen assets and by continuing military actions, while simultaneously supporting Israeli incursions into Lebanon and Syria. Aguilar criticizes US strategy in Lebanon, where it aims to arm the Lebanese army to fight Hezbollah, viewing it as a dangerous, failed playbook that will lead to civil war and further entangle the US in conflicts not serving its national interest. He emphasizes that current talks in Qatar are merely technical discussions, not a return to peace negotiations, and warns of the US building a massive military base in Gaza, further escalating regional tensions.
The insights reveal a critical, escalating geopolitical situation in the Middle East, directly impacting global energy security and international relations. The analysis challenges mainstream narratives about US foreign policy, suggesting that US actions are driven by Israeli interests, leading to a cycle of conflict and undermining diplomatic efforts. This has significant implications for global trade routes, regional stability, and the credibility of international agreements, urging a re-evaluation of US strategic objectives and their long-term consequences.

Takeaways

  • Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic has dropped by 90% since the war began, from 150-200 vessels daily to 15-20, despite claims of normalcy.
  • The Strait of Hormuz is 'controlled' by Iran through administrative measures and designated channels, not 'closed,' and the US distant blockade also restricted traffic.
  • The US has betrayed key aspects of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Iran, including the release of frozen assets and cessation of hostilities.
  • Israel has made significant incursions into Lebanon and Syria, violating UN Security Council resolutions and the 1974 disengagement agreement.
  • The US is planning to build a 5,000-soldier military base in Gaza, indicating a deeper, long-term military presence in the region.
  • US attempts to arm the Lebanese army to fight Hezbollah mirror failed strategies in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, risking civil war in Lebanon.
  • Current technical talks in Qatar between the US and Iran are not peace negotiations but focus on the technicalities of the Strait of Hormuz and frozen assets.

Insights

1Strait of Hormuz Traffic and Control Dynamics

Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted to 10% of pre-war levels, from 150-200 vessels daily to 15-20. The host presents a graph illustrating this drastic reduction. Lt. Col. Aguilar clarifies that the Strait is 'controlled' by Iran, not 'closed,' with Iran imposing restrictions and conditions on passage. He explains that a 12-nautical-mile navigable channel, maintained by Iran and Oman, is the designated route. Additionally, a US 'distant blockade' in the Gulf of Oman significantly impeded traffic, with the US disabling ships attempting to pass.

Graph showing vessel traffic drop; host's statement on 90% drop; Aguilar's analogy of border control for the Strait; mention of US distant blockade and disabling ships.

2US Betrayal of the Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)

Aguilar asserts that the United States has betrayed every aspect of the MOU signed with Iran. The MOU stipulated an immediate and permanent cessation of war on all fronts (including Lebanon) and the lifting of frozen assets as preconditions for further talks on Iran's nuclear program. However, the US has continued strikes on Iran, refused to release Iran's frozen assets (which are Iran's own money, not a gift), and Israel continues its incursions, all in direct violation of the MOU's initial terms.

Host's mention of MOU terms; Aguilar's statement that the US has 'betrayed every aspect of this MOU'; specific examples of US refusal to unfreeze assets and continued military actions.

3Israeli Incursions and US Support in Lebanon and Syria

Israel has expanded its incursions into Lebanon and Syria, moving past the Golan Heights into areas like Abdin and Jamal, closer to Damascus. These actions violate UN Security Council Resolution 2006 (for Israel to leave Lebanon) and the 1974 disengagement agreement (for Israel to leave the Golan Heights). Aguilar argues that the US is supporting these Israeli actions, betraying its own allies and UN resolutions for Israel's 'colonial project' in the Middle East.

Aguilar's detailed description of Israeli incursions into Lebanon and Syria; reference to UN Security Council 2006 resolution and 1974 disengagement agreement.

4US Strategy in Lebanon: A Repeat of Failed Playbooks

The US Central Command commander met with the Lebanese army to discuss implementing a security annex, likely aimed at arming the Lebanese army to fight Hezbollah. Aguilar views this as a dangerous strategy, mirroring failed US interventions in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, where the US attempted to pit a US-backed government against the local populace or resistance groups. He predicts this will lead to civil war in Lebanon and further entangle US troops in a conflict that does not serve US interests.

Discussion of SANCOM commander Brad Cooper's meeting with Lebanese army; Aguilar's comparison to US strategies in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria.

5US Military Base in Gaza and Regional Escalation

The United States has officially broken ground on a massive 5,000-soldier military base in Gaza. Aguilar warns this base will serve as an expeditionary hub, not just for Gaza, but also for supporting operations in Lebanon or acting as a policing force in the West Bank. This move is seen as a significant escalation, further entrenching the US military in the region for Israel's benefit, rather than pursuing diplomatic solutions.

News of the US breaking ground on a 5,000-soldier military base in Gaza.

Bottom Line

The US is using the narrative of the Strait of Hormuz being 'closed' as a pretense to strike Iran, when in reality, it is controlled, and the US itself contributed significantly to traffic restrictions via its distant blockade.

So What?

This narrative manipulation allows the US to justify military actions and portray Iran as the aggressor, diverting attention from its own violations of international agreements and its role in escalating tensions.

Impact

Analysts and policymakers should scrutinize official narratives regarding maritime chokepoints, seeking independent verification of traffic data and control mechanisms to expose potential geopolitical manipulation.

The US is actively pursuing a strategy in Lebanon to arm the Lebanese army against Hezbollah, despite Hezbollah being far better equipped and organized, and Israel maintaining its occupation zone.

So What?

This approach is a direct replication of failed US interventions in other Middle Eastern countries, destined to lead to civil war, further destabilize the region, and draw the US into another costly, protracted conflict for external interests.

Impact

International bodies and regional actors should advocate for diplomatic solutions that address the root causes of conflict (e.g., Israeli occupation) rather than supporting military strategies that exacerbate internal divisions and external proxy wars.

Q&A

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