Col. Larry Wilkerson: Pentagon Drops URGENT Warning on Trump: 'This Will Be a Long War'
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The Pentagon's warning to Trump about a prolonged Iran war may be a 'jinned up' story to serve Trump's diplomatic tactics.
- ❖The US military is significantly overextended, with 35-40% of its might arrayed near Iran, neglecting other global commitments and facing personnel shortages.
- ❖US Navy ships in the Persian Gulf are highly vulnerable to Iranian attack due to shallow, narrow waters, making them 'dead' if conflict starts.
- ❖Iran's most effective strategic response to a US attack would be to immediately target and destroy Israel, a move Wilkerson believes is unstoppable.
- ❖Netanyahu's rhetoric implies a willingness to use nuclear weapons if Israel faces existential threats during a conflict.
- ❖The US political system is deeply corrupt, with politicians often beholden to external forces, leading to decisions not based on national interest.
- ❖Religious fundamentalism, exemplified by figures like Mike Huckabee and Ted Cruz, significantly distorts US foreign policy towards Israel, prioritizing religious prophecy over strategic reality.
Insights
1Pentagon's Warning to Trump on Iran War Risks
The Pentagon reportedly warned Donald Trump about the potential for a prolonged conflict if the US strikes Iran, citing high stakes, entanglement risks, and American casualties. This warning, conveyed by Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Kaine, suggests a cautious military assessment contrasting with Trump's public confidence in an 'easily won' conflict.
General Dan Kaine warned it could lead to the possibility of a prolonged conflict in the region... President Trump hit back on Truth Social, writing, 'The story does not attribute this vast wealth of knowledge to anyone and is 100% incorrect... it is his opinion that it will be something easily won.'
2Trump's Diplomatic Tactics and Pentagon's Role
Colonel Wilkerson believes the Pentagon's warning story is 'jinned up' by Trump's inner circle, not a genuine military caution. He suggests Trump uses such conjecture to create diplomatic uncertainty, making it harder for Iran to assess US intentions and giving Trump a perceived advantage in negotiations by hinting at military action.
I think this is a story jinned up by the crowd around Trump... I think Trump likes that problematic nature of his diplomacy because he feels like it gives him an advantage and it puts his opponent at a disadvantage.
3US Military Overextension and Readiness Issues
The US military has 35-40% of its forces concentrated around Iran, leading to neglect of other global combatant command strategies, freedom of navigation missions, and significant personnel shortages. The Navy, in particular, faces severe recruiting shortfalls (40% in reserves) and morale issues from prolonged deployments, making Trump's goal of a 330-ship Navy unrealistic.
We have somewhere around oh 35 to 40%... a raid of our military might... around or in the proximity of Iran right now... The Navy has been so short on its recruiting. It's reserve component... is 40% short.
4Vulnerability of US Naval Assets in Persian Gulf
Wilkerson asserts that US naval combatants in the Persian Gulf are extremely vulnerable to Iranian attack. He states that the shallow, narrow waters and constricted straits make evasion difficult, rendering these ships 'dead' if a conflict begins. This contrasts with historical US naval doctrine that avoided deploying carriers in the Gulf.
Three of them were in the Gulf itself. Three naval combatants were in the Gulf itself... Those ships are dead... You die if you go into the Persian Gulf and you're up against any kind of enemy that knows what it's doing. And I beg your pardon. Iran now knows what it's doing big time.
5Iran's Strategic Counter-Move: Destroying Israel
Wilkerson argues that Iran's most strategically brilliant and effective first offensive action, if attacked by the US, would be to ignore other targets and concentrate all its missile capabilities on destroying Israel within 96 hours. He believes the US could not prevent this, and it would fundamentally alter the conflict's dynamics.
If I were Iran, the moment I even smell gunpowder in the air, I would destroy Israel... My first offensive action would be to destroy BB Netanyahu's Israel. Just destroy it. And I don't think we could stop that.
6Netanyahu's Implied Nuclear Threat
Wilkerson interprets Netanyahu's Hebrew remarks, 'if it does go bad, they will get the biggest surprise of their lives,' as a clear implication of using nuclear weapons. He suggests Israel's nuclear arsenal may already be in position for deployment.
He finished his remarks with and I checked it twice... 'if it does go bad, they will get the biggest surprise of their lives.' That can only mean one thing. That can only mean one thing. He's going to unleash a nuclear weapon or two or three.
7Political Corruption and External Influence in US Government
Drawing on a former Marine's observation, Wilkerson agrees that the US government is 'occupied' by forces to which politicians are beholden. He describes a system where even well-intentioned individuals become corrupted by the need to make 'deals with the devil' to succeed, leading to a political class of opportunists.
I think our country is occupied. I think most of our politicians are beholden to other forces... I think many of them go in with all the right reasons and then get corrupted... You're trapped.
Bottom Line
Iran's optimal first strike in a conflict with the US would be to completely destroy Israel, rather than engaging US forces directly or targeting Arab states.
This strategy, if executed, would immediately shift the geopolitical landscape, forcing the US to react to Israel's destruction rather than prosecuting its original war aims against Iran, potentially leading to a US withdrawal or a vastly different conflict.
For Iran, this represents a high-stakes, high-reward strategy to neutralize a primary regional adversary and disrupt the US-led coalition, potentially achieving strategic objectives beyond merely defending its territory.
Trump's aggressive stance and policies towards Iran are inadvertently uniting Arab states (Abu Dhabi, Doha, Riyadh) in an 'unheard of opposition to Israel,' despite historical rivalries.
This unexpected unity among Arab nations against Israel, driven by shared concerns over US policy and events in Gaza, could further isolate Israel and complicate any future US-led regional initiatives.
For Iran, this creates an opportunity to strengthen regional alliances and undermine Israeli and US influence by leveraging shared Arab grievances and fostering a united front against perceived Israeli expansionism.
The US Navy's ambitious goal of 330 ships is a 'joke' because it cannot adequately man its existing fleet due to severe personnel shortages and declining morale.
This reveals a critical disconnect between stated US military expansion goals and operational reality, indicating that the US military's capacity for sustained global presence and conflict is significantly overstated.
Adversaries could exploit this by engaging in prolonged, attritional conflicts or by targeting undermanned assets, knowing that the US lacks the personnel depth to maintain operations or rapidly replace losses.
Key Concepts
Clausewitzian Principles of War
The guest emphasizes that no military plan survives first contact with the enemy, and the goal is mission accomplishment, not adherence to a plan. This highlights the unpredictable nature of conflict and the importance of adapting to enemy actions, which Trump reportedly lacks understanding of.
Imperial Decline/Corruption Cycle
The discussion draws parallels between the current state of US politics and the decadence and corruption of the Roman Empire during the '12 Caesars' period, suggesting a systemic breakdown where power corrupts individuals and institutions, regardless of initial intentions.
Lessons
- Re-evaluate assumptions about US military power and readiness, considering the detailed accounts of overextension, personnel shortages, and vulnerable assets.
- Analyze geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, with a critical eye towards the potential for unexpected and strategically devastating counter-moves by adversaries, such as Iran targeting Israel.
- Scrutinize the motivations behind foreign policy decisions, recognizing the influence of political opportunism, domestic agendas, and religious fundamentalism, rather than solely strategic national interest.
Notable Moments
Wilkerson details how US naval combatants in the Persian Gulf are 'dead' if a conflict starts due to the geographical constraints and Iran's capabilities.
This stark assessment directly challenges perceptions of US naval invincibility and highlights a critical vulnerability that could lead to significant US casualties and a rapid escalation of conflict.
Wilkerson recounts a Korean War scenario where US generals anticipated 30,000 artillery rounds landing on Seoul, causing massive casualties, despite US air superiority.
This illustrates the brutal realities of modern warfare, where even a technologically superior force cannot prevent devastating initial strikes, emphasizing that 'winning' can still entail catastrophic losses.
Wilkerson interprets Netanyahu's Hebrew remarks about 'the biggest surprise of their lives' as an unambiguous threat to use nuclear weapons.
This suggests a potential for nuclear escalation in the Middle East that is not widely discussed, indicating a far more dangerous and unpredictable conflict scenario than publicly acknowledged.
Quotes
"Joint Chief's Chairman General Dan Kaine has warned it could lead to the possibility of a prolonged conflict in the region."
"The story does not attribute this vast wealth of knowledge to anyone and is 100% incorrect. General Kaine, like all of us, would like not to see war, but if a decision is made on ongoing against Iran at a military level, it is his opinion that it will be something easily won."
"Donald Trump does not want a war. He's caught between BB Netanyahu on the one hand and Miriam Adlesen and others like her on the other. the Jewish lobby very powerful, very moneyed and absolutely essential for his re-election."
"If I were Iran, the moment I even smell gunpowder in the air, I would destroy Israel. That would be my first... offensive action."
"He eradicated it. He cancelled without so much as a fairly well. I don't think he thought about it for a moment... He did it for Donald Trump and he did it to spite Obama."
"I think our country is occupied. I think most of our politicians are beholden to other forces."
"It is so corrupt, so debouched, so filthy, so decadent that you can't believe it. You simply can't believe it. It rings of Epstein."
"I'm not going to change anything... but I just like disrupting them."
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