Professor Pape: Why Iran GROUND INVASION IS Likely COMING

Stage 1 of the escalation trap—using "smart bombs" to hit targets, destroy infrastructure, and kill leaders—has failed to achieve strategic objectives. Instead of weakening or toppling the Iranian regime, these actions have made it more hawkish and dangerous. Crucially, Iran has increased its control over global oil from 4% to 20% in 19 days, shipping oil and accumulating over a billion dollars in Chinese banks, effectively nullifying US sanctions and strengthening its position.

The escalation trap starts with stage one the smart bombs that hit targets destroy targets kill leaders but don't achieve the strategic objectives. Number one uh they uh they did not uh weaken the regime topple the regime. They uh didn't even move the regime to a dovish position. The regime is more hawkish, more dangerous now than ever... Iran in the last 19 days has grown from controlling 4% of the world's oil to now 20% of the world's oil. In fact, in the last 19 days, Iran has been shipping its oil out. It's made somewhere around a billion and a half dollars.

Professor Pape assesses a 75% likelihood of a US ground force operation, or "limited territorial control options," occurring by early next week. This includes potential actions to seize nuclear material or control the Strait of Hormuz. The US is actively preparing, with 2,500 Marines moving from Japan (a process taking about 18 days) and the 82nd Airborne likely preparing after canceling training. Trump's apparent indecision is framed as a tactic to buy time for these forces to be in position.

I would use the term inevitable, but what I mean is 75% likely... He needs time to get those Marines there. He's basically killing time while he's waiting for the actual physical options to be available to him. There's probably also preparations happening not just with the 2500 Marines that are moving from Japan... but also the 82nd Airborne is likely um uh preparing as well because they cancelled some of their training about 10 days ago... stage three would be limited territorial control cars coastal areas esphon.

A ground operation to control the Strait of Hormuz presents extreme tactical challenges for US forces. The geography, characterized by sheer cliffs and crevices, provides ideal defensive terrain for Iran, which has home-field advantage and decades of preparation (booby traps, landmines). While the US possesses advanced weaponry like 5,000 lb bunker buster bombs, destroying all mobile anti-ship missile capabilities is nearly impossible. Even a single successful Iranian missile strike on a US ship could result in dozens or hundreds of casualties, leading to a "tactical disaster" akin to historical events like Gallipoli.

the geography here in order to take territory with ground forces the offense has to reveal itself... tremendous exposure... The bottom line though is you just showed those images. My goodness gracious here. Uh, this is going to be a challenge and and this is like saving private Ryan territory... they only need to score one hit on one of our ships... We may knock out 98% of what's coming at them, but they only need to have one, maybe two hits, and right away you've got dozens, if not hundreds dead... This looks like this World War I disaster called Gallipoli.