Trump & Hegseth Ignored Experts—Then Tried to Run a War (w/ Tom Nichols) | Command Post
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The US-Iran 'ceasefire' was effectively a one-sided American cessation of hostilities, not a mutual agreement, as Iran continued its actions and dictated terms.
- ❖President Trump's approach to the conflict was characterized by panic, frustration, and a desire to exit when things did not go his way, akin to an 'angry six-year-old'.
- ❖The administration violated fundamental strategic principles: lacking clear objectives, a war termination plan, and coordination with allies like Israel.
- ❖General Kaine's press conference focused on 'inputs' (bombs dropped, targets hit) rather than 'end states,' contrasting sharply with Iran's clear demands (sanctions lifted, control of Hormuz).
- ❖Secretary Hegseth's leadership is described as juvenile and demonstrating the Dunning-Kruger effect, actively hostile to specialized expertise and leading to a significant purge of senior military officers.
- ❖The absence of a functional National Security Council and the president's unbriefable nature crippled effective strategic planning and policy coordination.
- ❖The conflict alienated Iranian reformers and US allies, reinforcing anti-American sentiment and undermining global trust in US leadership.
Insights
1The 'One-Sided Ceasefire' and Strategic Failure
The declared ceasefire between the US and Iran was not a mutual agreement but a unilateral American withdrawal driven by President Trump's frustration. The conflict lacked clear strategic objectives, a war termination plan, and coordination with allies, violating basic principles of warfare. Iran, meanwhile, continued to assert its demands and capabilities, effectively dictating the terms of the 'end state'.
Tom Nichols describes it as a 'double-sided ceasefire' that was only one-sided, with Trump 'panicked and freaked and trying to get out of this for three weeks'. Mark Hertling calls it a 'temporary cessation of hostilities'. The Iranians are 'dictating what the end of this war looks like' (, , ).
2Disregard for Expertise and the 'Pentagon Purge'
The administration actively dismissed specialized expertise, particularly from Iran experts and military professionals. Secretary Hegseth, described as embodying the Dunning-Kruger effect, led a 'Pentagon purge' that saw nine four-star generals and 24 general/flag officers relieved or forced into early retirement, including the Army Chief of Chaplains, Major General Bill Green. This removal of experienced leadership further crippled strategic planning and decision-making.
The administration was 'actively and severely hostile... toward anyone who has any kind of specialized expertise.' Hegseth 'literally is too ignorant and maybe too dumb to understand all the things he doesn't know.' Mark Hertling details the purge of 'nine different four stars and close to 24 different general and flag officers' (, , ).
3Breakdown of National Security Council Function
A critical factor in the strategic failure was the functional absence of the National Security Council (NSC). The NSC, designed as the president's private think tank for coordinated policy, was not utilized to gather diverse expert input from military, intelligence, diplomatic, and civilian agencies. This left President Trump unbriefable and without a structured process for developing and executing complex foreign policy, particularly regarding war termination.
Mark Hertling suggests bringing back the NSC and National Security Advisor to 'tee up these kind of discussions in an accurate way and get everybody's input'. Tom Nichols emphasizes that the NSC is 'made up of serving military people and civilian experts and intelligence community folks and diplomats all sitting' (, ).
4Erosion of Moral High Ground and Allied Trust
President Trump's threats to destroy Iranian 'civilization' rather than just its government, combined with the US's unilateral actions and abandonment of allies (Afghans, Kurds, Ukrainians, Europeans), severely damaged America's moral standing and international trust. This approach alienated the Iranian populace, who were initially encouraged to rise up but then left exposed, and emboldened the Iranian regime.
The question of how the president can claim the moral high ground after threatening to 'destroy Iran's civilization' is raised (). Mark Hertling notes that such statements are 'not equated to taking the moral high ground' (). Tom Nichols states, 'the Iranian people are a lot less pro-American than they were 5 years ago' ().
Bottom Line
The Iranian regime has a strong incentive to 'placate' the Americans by agreeing to terms, knowing that the US wants out, while simultaneously signaling to regional adversaries (Israel, Gulf States) that 'when the Americans are gone, you're going to pay.'
This creates a deceptive diplomatic environment where apparent agreements mask underlying hostile intentions, setting the stage for future regional instability once US disengagement is complete.
Future US administrations must understand this dynamic and build robust regional alliances and deterrence mechanisms that are not solely reliant on immediate US military presence, but rather on long-term, coordinated strategic partnerships.
The 'war college' principles (branches and sequels, matching objectives, grand strategy) are under attack by the current administration, yet they are precisely what was missing in the Iran conflict.
This intellectual hostility towards foundational military education creates a dangerous gap in strategic competence at the highest levels of government, leading to predictable failures.
Military and civilian institutions must find innovative ways to reinforce the value of strategic education and critical thinking, perhaps through joint programs or independent advisory bodies, to inoculate future leaders against anti-intellectual biases.
Key Concepts
Dunning-Kruger Effect
A cognitive bias where people with low ability at a task overestimate their own ability. Applied to Secretary Hegseth, who is described as too ignorant to understand his own lack of knowledge in military strategy.
Numerators Without Denominators
A critique of military briefings that provide raw numbers of targets destroyed or resources expended without context (e.g., 'destroyed 95% of mines' without stating the total number of mines), making it impossible to assess actual impact or remaining threat.
Lessons
- Re-establish and empower the National Security Council as a functional, expert-driven body to ensure comprehensive input and coordinated strategy development for national security decisions.
- Prioritize and value specialized expertise in foreign policy and military affairs, ensuring that Iran experts, career diplomats, and experienced military officers are consulted and their advice integrated into decision-making processes.
- Implement robust 'after-action reviews' for military operations and governmental responses that genuinely assess strategic failures, civil-military dynamics, and policy effectiveness, rather than merely tallying operational successes.
- Cultivate a culture of humility and strategic foresight in leadership, recognizing the limits of military power and the importance of clear political objectives, war termination plans, and allied coordination before initiating conflict.
Restoring Strategic Competence in National Security
**Rebuild the NSC:** Appoint a National Security Advisor who prioritizes process over policy-making, ensuring all relevant agencies (State, Defense, Treasury, DNI, Energy) have input and the President receives comprehensive, unbiased briefings.
**Value Expertise:** Actively seek and integrate advice from career experts in regional studies, military strategy, and diplomacy. Reverse any 'purges' of experienced personnel and foster an environment where dissenting views are heard and considered.
**Mandate War-Gaming & Rehearsals:** Before any significant military action, conduct thorough war-gaming and rehearsals involving all relevant governmental agencies to identify potential pitfalls, develop branches and sequels, and clarify strategic objectives and end-states.
**Define Clear Objectives & Exit Strategies:** For any military engagement, establish precise, achievable strategic objectives and a clear war termination plan, ensuring these are aligned with political goals and communicated effectively to allies and adversaries.
**Foster Civil-Military Harmony:** Promote strong, respectful working relationships between civilian policymakers and senior military leadership, recognizing that effective national security requires both political direction and military expertise working in tandem.
Notable Moments
Discussion of General Kaine's press conference, which focused on 'inputs' (bombs, targets) rather than 'end states,' highlighting a disconnect in strategic thinking.
This illustrates a fundamental flaw in the administration's understanding of military success, prioritizing tactical metrics over strategic outcomes and revealing a lack of a coherent overall plan.
The revelation that CIA Director John Ratcliffe told President Trump that Netanyahu's briefing on Iran was 'farcical'.
This moment, despite Ratcliffe's controversial appointment, shows a rare instance of an intelligence chief pushing back against political narratives, underscoring the severity of the misinformation Trump was receiving.
The 'Pentagon purge' of senior officers, including the Army Chief of Chaplains, Major General Bill Green, who was forced to retire one year into a four-year term.
This highlights a systemic effort to remove experienced military leadership, potentially based on political loyalty rather than competence, further destabilizing the military command structure during a critical period.
Caroline Levit's press conference response to a question about the moral high ground, where she dodged the issue and wrapped the president's actions in military effectiveness.
This exemplifies the administration's inability or unwillingness to engage with ethical and moral dimensions of warfare, instead resorting to deflection and conflating military action with moral righteousness.
Quotes
"He's like an angry six-year-old. So, is it a ceasefire? Maybe it's not a double-sided ceasefire. Maybe the only ceasefire is us."
"The Iranians are talking about what is the actual end state. We want you to lift sanctions. We want to control the state of Hormuz. We want to start collecting money. We want to keep enriching uranium. The Iranians are dictating what the end of this war looks like. And all the America, all the Trump administration and all General Kane can say is, 'Well, we launched a lot of bombs.'"
"Hegseth seems like the living embodiment of the Dunning Kruger effect where he thinks so highly of himself that uh you know he thinks he's obviously smarter than all those other dunes who used to run wars."
"This war has has shown you what happens when you go to war with a secretary of defense who doesn't know what the hell he's doing and how deeply and over his head he is because what you get is a kind of juvenile adolescent cheerleader of, you know, dead and we kill these guys. Look, this isn't this isn't Halo, you know, this isn't Call of Duty with your buddies. These are these are real human beings on both sides."
"Donald Trump is allergic to process. He could have Brett Skircraft in there and, you know, Susie Wilds could be as good as, you know, we were saying we hope she would be. it it wouldn't matter because the the the the president isn't going to listen to process. He's not going to sit down for meetings. He's not going to read memos. He's unbriefable."
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