Col. Jacques Baud: DESPERATE Move? Israel Just LOST – Trump’s Last-Minute Move Changes Everything
YouTube · UrEuENJ13UA
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The US-Iran ceasefire collapsed after Israel initiated actions in Lebanon, prompting Iran to re-close the Strait of Hormuz.
- ❖US negotiation tactics, particularly under Trump, are characterized as 'blackmail' by Colonel Baud, leading to Iranian distrust.
- ❖Iran views uranium enrichment as a matter of national sovereignty, an inalienable right under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and will not concede it.
- ❖GCC countries are reportedly seeking emergency credit lines and threatening to shift alliances to China if the US cannot ensure regional stability and trade.
- ❖Middle Eastern nations increasingly see US alliances as 'toxic' due to perceived inability to protect them and a focus on Israel's security.
- ❖The West's continuous engagement in wars is viewed as a demonstration of weakness, not strength, and is counterproductive to its own domestic development.
- ❖Israel's expansionist goals in South Lebanon, Golan, and Palestinian territories are seen as violations of international law and a primary driver of regional instability.
Insights
1US Policy Inconsistency Undermines Regional Stability and Credibility
The US has repeatedly changed its stance on negotiations and blockades, creating a 'confused situation' in the Strait of Hormuz. This inconsistency, exemplified by lifting and then reimposing sanctions and varying negotiation delegations, destabilizes oil and trade markets and erodes trust, particularly with Iran.
The US initially proposed a ceasefire to open the Strait of Hormuz and lifted sanctions on Iranian oil, but then stopped an Iranian ship and created its own blockade, leading to market uncertainty (, , ).
2Israel's Actions Collapse Ceasefires and Fuel Conflict
A region-wide ceasefire, intended to open the Strait of Hormuz, collapsed when Israel initiated military actions in Lebanon. This pattern of Israeli aggression is seen as a primary driver of instability, directly undermining diplomatic efforts and reinforcing the perception of Israel as a disruptive force.
As soon as a ceasefire was declared and the Strait of Hormuz opened, 'the Israelis started the action in Lebanon and that led to a collapse of the ceasefire' ().
3Iran Dominates Negotiations, Seeking Real Solutions Over Temporary Pauses
Iran is not interested in ceasefires that merely serve to reinforce weaker parties (US/Israel) or buy time. Instead, Iran seeks comprehensive, long-term negotiations for a 'real solution' to the conflict, demonstrating its dominant position and willingness to continue fighting if genuine diplomatic engagement is absent.
The Iranians 'are dominating the situation. They are they are not keen to have a ceasefire. I mean they want a solution' (). They view ceasefires as only serving to 'replenish the number of missiles that are missing in Israel' ().
4Middle Eastern Allies Shift Away from US Towards China/BRICS
GCC countries, facing economic strain and perceiving a lack of US protection against Iranian strikes, are re-evaluating their alliances. They view being a US ally as 'toxic' and are increasingly turning to China and BRICS for economic and diplomatic support, signaling a significant geopolitical reorientation.
UAE requested an emergency credit line from the US, threatening to 'shift to China' if not provided (). Middle East countries called Russia for mediation and now see 'greater involvement of China' (, ).
5Western Wars are Self-Defeating and Lack Clear Objectives
The West, particularly the US, initiates conflicts 'stupidly without objective, without strategy, without knowing how we would get out of these conflicts.' These wars have consistently failed to improve situations, worsened regional conditions, and led to negative consequences like increased migration, without benefiting domestic societies or even the military-industrial complex in the long run.
The US 'started all these wars stupidly without objective without strategy without knowing how we would get out of these conflicts.' Examples include Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Iran ().
Bottom Line
The perception of Israel's values among European nations is changing, with a growing realization that Israel does not share Western European values and acts without good faith.
This shift in perception could lead to a re-evaluation of diplomatic and strategic support for Israel from European countries, potentially isolating Israel further on the international stage and altering traditional Western alliances.
For non-Western powers, this creates an opportunity to build stronger diplomatic and economic ties with European nations seeking more balanced and principled foreign policies in the Middle East.
The US's inability to maintain peace and open trade routes in the Middle East directly impacts the economic viability of its traditional allies, forcing them to seek alternatives.
This economic pressure acts as a powerful catalyst for geopolitical realignment, as countries prioritize their economic survival and stability over traditional political alliances, even with a superpower like the US.
Nations like China, which prioritize trade and economic development over military intervention, can capitalize on this vacuum by offering stable economic partnerships and infrastructure projects, thereby expanding their influence without direct military confrontation.
Key Concepts
Gunboat Diplomacy
The guest describes US foreign policy as 'gunboat diplomacy,' where military threat and coercion are used to achieve objectives rather than genuine negotiation and mutual accommodation, particularly in the context of Trump's 'art of the deal' approach with Iran. This creates distrust and instability.
Sovereignty as a Red Line
Iran's position on uranium enrichment is framed as a matter of national sovereignty, akin to the sanctity of its soil. This highlights that certain issues are non-negotiable for a state, as they represent fundamental aspects of its independence and self-determination, making external demands on these points inherently escalatory.
Aggression as Weakness
The argument is made that the West's and Israel's aggressive military actions are not signs of strength but rather demonstrations of underlying weakness. This contrarian view suggests that a truly strong power would seek peace and stability through diplomacy and trade, while a weak one resorts to constant conflict to project an image of power.
Lessons
- Businesses operating in the Middle East should diversify supply chains and re-evaluate geopolitical risks, considering the increasing volatility in key trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz and the shifting alliances.
- Policymakers in Western nations should critically assess the long-term effectiveness of military-first foreign policies and consider adopting more consistent, diplomacy-focused approaches to regain credibility and foster stability.
- Companies and investors should monitor the growing economic and diplomatic ties between Middle Eastern countries and BRICS nations, as this signals new market opportunities and a potential shift in global economic centers of gravity.
Quotes
"The so-called art of the deal of Donald Trump is nothing else that blackmailing. Period. So, it's one proposal. You take it or leave it. But if you live it, then we we destroy you."
"Being ally an ally of the US is toxic because the US has similar objectives as Israel. Meaning that being an ally of US doesn't bring you into a safe space. It brings you in the war sphere of Israel."
"The western world has become too weak to achieve peace. That you need to be strong to achieve peace. If you are weak then you you try to attack everywhere and think like this."
"Giving up the ability to re to enrich uranium is in fact for Iran is giving up a part of its sovereignty. It's as simple as that."
"As long as Israel doesn't comply with international law, we'll have problem in the region. Period."
Q&A
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