“They’re Underwater!” - MIT Drone CEO on WW3, China Spy Drones & Submersive UFOs | Jesse Hamel • 385

Drone warfare began with large, expensive aircraft like the Predator and Reaper, primarily for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) and later weaponized. The Ukraine conflict marked a significant shift, demonstrating the effectiveness of cheap, mass-produced, and even DIY drones. These smaller, disposable systems, often built from hobbyist parts and 3D-printed frames, offer precision munitions and ISR capabilities at a fraction of the cost of traditional military hardware, making them accessible to a wider range of actors.

Early drones were large, 'bigger than my wingspan' (03:09), used for ISR and Hellfire missiles (04:17). Ukraine showed 'super cheap' drones, 'literally duct tape a grenade to it' (19:50), creating 'the same thing that like an American missile that cost... $2 million a pop... for pennies on the dollar' (20:20).

The Global Positioning System (GPS) is a fragile system, easily disrupted by jamming, spoofing, solar flares, and even urban environments. This vulnerability affects military operations (e.g., in Ukraine, GPS is 'basically non-existent' in battle space), commercial industries (trucking theft, Uber navigation), and critical infrastructure (banking timing, satellite positioning). This widespread reliance on a weak signal creates a single point of failure that adversaries can exploit.

GPS signal is 'very easily disrupted' (34:17) by jammers (34:43), solar flares (41:47), and buildings (42:50). Ukraine military 'assume right now that GPS is basically non-existent anywhere in the battle space' (40:22). US trucking industry lost $7 billion to theft where GPS jammers were used (39:08).

Victus, Jesse Hamel's company, has developed a novel 'synthetic GPS' technology. This machine learning model acts as an 'inner ear' for autonomous systems (drones, robots, submarines, aircraft), providing independent position, navigation, and timing (PNT) by processing internal inertial sensor data. It operates passively in the background when GPS is available and seamlessly takes over when GPS is jammed, spoofed, or unavailable, ensuring continuous and reliable operation without requiring hardware or software changes to existing platforms.

The company developed a system to allow devices to know 'where am I?' like 'the inner ear for a robotic system' (43:47). It uses a 'synthetic GPS' machine learning model (33:44) deployed on lightweight compute (34:09) to passively receive accelerometer data and transmit independent state estimation when GPS is disrupted (35:45).

The US military's procurement process is severely hampered by bureaucracy, operating on slow 3-5 year budget cycles in an era of monthly technological innovation. Program managers are incentivized to avoid risk, leading to slow adoption of cutting-edge technology. This systemic inefficiency is so profound that the military has codified 'Other Transaction Authority' (OTA) as the primary means to bypass its own Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR), demonstrating a recognition of the system's failure without fundamental reform.

The procurement process is 'largely the same as when McNamera invented it' (1:03:00) and buys on a '3 to five year budget when technology is innovating at like a monthly, if not weekly level' (1:03:16). Program managers have 'every incentive to avoid risk' (1:04:30). 'Our own rules have gotten so cumbersome that the other way is now the primary way' (1:06:01) with OTA.

China employs an asymmetric strategy to counter the US military's conventional strength, focusing on capabilities that neutralize US advantages without direct confrontation. This includes mass production of cheap, dual-use drones (commercial drones that can be repurposed for military missions), electronic attack capabilities (jammers), and novel delivery systems like hypersonic drones launched from stratosphere balloons. Their rapid industrialization allowed them to bypass older industrial ages, directly investing in information age capabilities, and they leverage state-sponsored funding and currency manipulation to dominate markets and gather intelligence.

China invests in 'capabilities that asymmetrically neutralize it' (1:50:04) such as 'electronic attack, like balloons, like super cheap drones that take advantage of my manufacturing supremacy' (1:50:08). DJI drones 'dominate the US consumer market' (1:52:07) and are 'dual use' (1:57:44). Stratosphere balloons can launch 'hypersonic drone[s] that's very cheap' (1:46:50).