“Utter Disaster for All Involved”: Is Trump’s War on Iran Repeating Bush’s “Forever War” in Iraq?
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Iran's retaliatory strikes are not solely military-focused, impacting economic and residential installations across the Gulf, including Saudi Arabia, Dubai, and Qatar.
- ❖The US administration is accused of directly copying the Bush administration's 'entire playbook' from the 2003 Iraq War, including using 'false pretexts'.
- ❖Gulf countries and Turkey are deliberately avoiding joining the US-Israeli offensive against Iran, prioritizing regional stability over alignment.
- ❖Israel is perceived as benefiting from regional chaos, actively influencing American decision-making to escalate the conflict.
- ❖The conflict is predicted to be 'far worse' than the Iraq War due to Iran's larger size and more cohesive regime.
- ❖US military interventions since WWII, including Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, are cited as consistent 'costly fiascos' that Washington fails to learn from.
Insights
1Iran's Widespread Retaliation and Unclear Objectives
Following the assassination of Ayat Ali, Iran's war plans appear to be on 'autopilot,' resulting in broad retaliatory strikes. These attacks have not been confined to US or Israeli military targets but have hit various economic and residential installations across the Gulf, including Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Qatar, Erbil, and Jordan. The guest suggests two plausible explanations for this: either a decision that if Iran falls, others will too, or a strategy to impose a high cost on American interests to force an end to the war.
Iranian rockets, missiles, and drones hit the US embassy and CIA station in Riyadh, US consulate grounds in Dubai, Al Udeid air base in Qatar, and sparked a fire at an oil terminal in the UAE. A ballistic missile also entered Turkish airspace. ()
2US Repeating the 'Forever War' Playbook from Iraq
The US administration is accused of directly replicating the strategies and 'false pretexts' used by the Bush administration to justify the 2003 Iraq War. This repetition is seen as particularly dangerous because Iran is significantly larger and its regime more unified than Iraq's was, threatening a 'far worse' conflict with severe implications for American security and regional stability.
Marwan Bashara states the administration is 'copying not one page, not two pages, not a chapter, but the entire playbook of the Bush administration,' repeating 'every single false pretext' from 2003. He notes the Iraq War was a 'disaster' costing trillions and thousands of lives. ()
3Regional Reluctance to Join US-Israeli Offensive
Despite the escalating conflict, Gulf countries and Turkey are actively resisting joining the US-Israeli military actions against Iran. Their primary concern is to avoid further regional destabilization, recognizing that such involvement would 'widen further the regionalization of the war' and lead to catastrophic outcomes for their own nations.
Bashara notes the 'astounding' decision by Gulf countries 'not to respond, not to join the American-Israeli onslaught against Iran.' He expects Turkey to do the same, as 'none of them want to join an Israeli war of choice.' ()
4Israel's Perceived Benefit from Regional Chaos
The Israeli government, particularly Netanyahu, is framed as actively seeking and benefiting from regional chaos. This perspective suggests that Israeli leaders foresaw and desired the current escalation, believing that increased instability for Turkey, the Gulf region, and Iran ultimately serves Israel's interests by enhancing its influence on American decision-making.
Bashara states, 'the Israeli government, Netanyahu and others who actually foresaw this happening and wanted this to happen. They wanted the chaos within Iran. They wanted the chaos within the region... because they're the only ones capable of affecting influencing American decision-making.' ()
Bottom Line
The US administration's actions are described as an 'addiction' to international violence and hegemonic wars, despite a consistent track record of these interventions ending in 'costly fiascos' since World War II.
This suggests a deeply ingrained, self-defeating pattern in US foreign policy, where historical lessons about the futility and cost of regime change wars are repeatedly ignored, leading to predictable negative outcomes for US credibility, resources, and personnel.
For policymakers, this highlights the need for a fundamental re-evaluation of interventionist foreign policy doctrines and a shift towards diplomatic and non-military solutions, acknowledging the long-term failures of past approaches.
Saudi Arabia's public stance of supporting diplomacy and opposing the use of its territory for attacks on Iran reportedly contradicts private lobbying efforts by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for a US attack.
This discrepancy indicates complex, potentially duplicitous, regional political maneuvering. It suggests that public declarations may serve to manage regional perceptions while private influence seeks to shape US policy in ways that could escalate conflict, creating significant uncertainty about Saudi Arabia's true intentions and allegiances.
Analysts and diplomats must scrutinize public statements against private actions to understand true geopolitical alignments and risks, recognizing that stated positions may not reflect underlying strategic goals.
Key Concepts
The Elephant and the Grass
A Swahili proverb: 'When the elephants fight, the grass gets crushed; when elephants play, the grass gets crushed.' This model illustrates how smaller, neighboring countries inevitably suffer the consequences of conflicts between larger powers, regardless of the intentions or outcomes of the major players.
Repeating History's Fiascos
This model suggests that despite clear historical precedents of costly and unsuccessful military interventions (e.g., Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam), governments can become 'addicted' to violence and repeat the same strategic mistakes, leading to predictable failures and loss of credibility.
Lessons
- Recognize the historical patterns of US military interventions and their consistent failures, particularly in regime change efforts, to better anticipate potential outcomes in current conflicts.
- Evaluate geopolitical narratives critically, especially those from official sources, by comparing them with independent analyses that highlight potential 'false pretexts' or hidden agendas.
- Monitor the actions and statements of regional powers like Gulf states and Turkey for signs of their true alignment, as their reluctance to join major power conflicts can significantly shape the conflict's scope.
Notable Moments
Senator Richard Blumenthal expresses increased fear after a Senate briefing that the US may deploy 'boots on the ground' in the escalating conflict.
This statement from a US Senator underscores growing concern within American political circles about direct military involvement and the potential for a ground war, reflecting the gravity of the situation and the perceived risk of escalation.
The US torpedoing of an Iranian naval ship in the Indian Ocean is reported, marking the first time a submarine has sunk a ship since World War II.
This incident signifies a major escalation in direct military engagement between the US and Iran, demonstrating a significant shift from proxy conflicts to direct naval warfare and setting a dangerous precedent not seen in decades.
Quotes
"I am more fearful than ever after this briefing that we may be putting boots on the ground."
"They've repeated every single false pretext that the Bush administration carried or diffused in order to justify the war against Iraq in 2003. We've known how what a disaster that war was."
"When the elephants fight, the grass gets crushed; when elephants play, the grass gets crushed."
"This promises to be an utter disaster for all involved including Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and many of the neighboring Arab states."
Q&A
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